AI correctly predicted the SJK-juniorit win.
The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 SJK-juniorit SJK-juniorit ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TP-47 | 32.4% | 44.8% | -12.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.2% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| SJK-juniorit | 38.0% | 33.0% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates TP-47's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (SJK-juniorit win 0–4).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about TP-47 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SJK-juniorit higher (50.4% vs model 38.0%, 12.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SJK-juniorit win 0–4).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · TP-47 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · SJK-juniorit 38.0%
- xG · TP-47 1.24 — SJK-juniorit 1.36
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · TP-47 2.02 · Draw 4.07 · SJK-juniorit 2.74
- Implied 1X2 · TP-47 44.8% · Draw 22.2% · SJK-juniorit 33.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · TP-47 2.02 · Draw 4.07 · SJK-juniorit 2.74
- Implied 1X2 · TP-47 44.8% · Draw 22.2% · SJK-juniorit 33.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SJK-juniorit win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
SJK-juniorit win · TP-47 0–4 SJK-juniorit
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9d83e3b56984ce6d9c786edd281c547591aca43a27d8ec37df6f8b8e08f0cc5c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : TP-47 or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "TP-47"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "SJK-juniorit",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0503,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.74
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.74,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "SJK-juniorit Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.03,
"market_odds": 2.74,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": 1.5,
"value_pct": 4.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "TP-47 or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "TP-47 or SJK-juniorit",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SJK-juniorit",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "TP-47 or SJK-juniorit",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.5,
"implied_prob": 24.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.07
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.01,
"draw": 22.22,
"home": 44.77
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 13:01:57",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:44:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "TP-47",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.77,
"gap_pp": -12.4,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.22,
"gap_pp": 7.37,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.01,
"gap_pp": 5.03,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.77,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.07,
"early": 4.07,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.22,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.74,
"early": 2.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.01,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.0,
"ev": 0.1875,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.2936,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.7064,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6696
},
"p_final": 0.3115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5954,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0405,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.9,
"text": "-35.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 68.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6835,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10765.15,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0852,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0138,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.2941,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0852,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3079
},
"p_final": 0.3079,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4227,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0393,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1874,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0303,
"ev": -0.1218,
"implied_prob": 0.7059,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6755
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.482,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 48.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2765,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10433.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0383,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0383,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SJK-juniorit",
"sort_key": 1790.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"alert_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.38,
"hero_label": "TP-47",
"market_prob_pct": 33.0,
"market_team": "TP-47",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SJK-juniorit at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SJK-juniorit as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SJK-juniorit",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.38,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"steam_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SJK-juniorit at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SJK-juniorit as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SJK-juniorit",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TP-47 1.24 xG vs SJK-juniorit 1.36 \u2192 SJK-juniorit 38.0%",
"Market: TP-47 ~33.0% implied",
"Market Steam: SJK-juniorit \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SJK-juniorit with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.38,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "TP-47",
"market_prob": 44.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.37,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.0,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "SJK-juniorit",
"market_prob": 33.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.55,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.55,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.21,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.21,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "TP-47",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates TP-47\u0027s win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SJK-juniorit",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "SJK-juniorit \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TP-47 1.24 xG vs SJK-juniorit 1.36 \u2192 SJK-juniorit 38.0%",
"Market: TP-47 ~33.0% implied",
"Market Steam: SJK-juniorit \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SJK-juniorit with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.38,
"hero_label": "TP-47",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "SJK-juniorit odds shortened \u2193 -8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on SJK-juniorit, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about TP-47 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on SJK-juniorit \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about TP-47 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on SJK-juniorit, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"Buying interest on SJK-juniorit \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors TP-47 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, SJK-juniorit has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.3%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "TP-47",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices TP-47 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.38,
"edge_pp": -12.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "TP-47",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.37,
"edge_pp": 7.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.0,
"edge_pp": 5.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SJK-juniorit",
"market_prob_pct": 33.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on SJK-juniorit \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers TP-47 (33.0%).",
"SJK-juniorit has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -8.3%, 4/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SJK-juniorit, Market \u2192 TP-47, Recent sharp money \u2192 SJK-juniorit.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.5,
"closing_odds": 2.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.5,
"entry_odds": 2.02,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 22m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on SJK-juniorit (8.3%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.87",
"2.74"
],
"display": "3.14 \u2192 2.72 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 22m",
"pick_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.14"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.74,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.3",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.74"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "SJK-juniorit",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "SJK-juniorit",
"steam_score": 49,
"steam_team_name": "SJK-juniorit",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sjk-juniorit",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SJK-juniorit",
"away_team_id": 18609,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18609.webp",
"away_team_name": "SJK-juniorit",
"away_team_public_id": "4NdhxLCVu8TEJg",
"away_team_slug": "sjk-juniorit",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_display_name": "Finland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_id": 55,
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1635481,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_display_name": "TP-47",
"home_team_id": 9214,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9214.webp",
"home_team_name": "TP-47",
"home_team_public_id": "0q5kGomC8J3Ucm",
"home_team_slug": "tp-47",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tp-47",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_country_display": "Finland",
"league_display_name": "Kakkonen - Grupo C",
"league_id": 249,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/249.webp",
"league_name": "Kakkonen - Grupo C",
"league_public_id": "3SdZbyQIYvWtGX",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2MBz0BkF8WA8LP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tornio",
"venue_name": "Pohjan Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4161,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3301,
"draw": 0.2222,
"home": 0.4477
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.351
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1779,
"best_odd": 4.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.2222,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3301,
"draw": 0.2222,
"home": 0.4477
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2353
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3663,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0454,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3301,
"draw": 0.2222,
"home": 0.4477
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.4023
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": 0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.07,
"edge": 0.0502,
"ev": 0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.2457,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.1713,
"ev": -0.3461,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0852,
"alpha_yes": 0.1874,
"best_no_odd": 3.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1621,
"edge_yes": -0.1621,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.482,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0393,
"ev_yes": -0.2765,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1218,
"implied_no": 0.2939,
"implied_yes": 0.7061,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0852,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3079
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1874,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0303,
"ev": -0.1218,
"implied_prob": 0.7059,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6755
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3079,
"p_final_yes": 0.6755,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1642,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.33,
"best_under_odd": 3.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.28,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.08,
"edge_over": -0.2255,
"edge_under": 0.2255,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3589,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1429,
"ev_under": 0.6835,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0405,
"implied_over": 0.7075,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7064,
"implied_under": 0.2925,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2936,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.7064,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6696
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3115
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6696,
"p_final_under": 0.3115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6835,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6835,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SJK-juniorit at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SJK-juniorit as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SJK-juniorit",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +68.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +68.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +68.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+68.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SJK-juniorit).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "SJK-juniorit"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0852,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.2941,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0852,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3079
},
"p_final": 0.3079,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0393,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1874,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0303,
"ev": -0.1218,
"implied_prob": 0.7059,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6755
}
},
"edge": 0.1621,
"ev": 0.482,
"implied_prob": 0.2939,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"market_prob": 0.2936,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1429,
"implied_prob": 0.7064,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6696
},
"p_final": 0.3115,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0405,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2255,
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.2925,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635481,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6835,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.482,
"implied_prob": 0.2939,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.482,
"implied_prob": 0.2939,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SJK-juniorit",
"home": "TP-47"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.247837,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6835,
"implied_prob": 0.2925,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36496350364963503,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.042,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635481,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:01:58.993093+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para TP-47 & SJK-juniorit!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Kakkonen - Grupo C — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 |
| 2 | GBK | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | JBK | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | VPS II | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Kraft | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | TP-47 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | JS Hercules | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 50 | 26 | +24 | 36 |
| 2 | Kraft | 18 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 | VPS II | 18 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 25 |
| 4 | GBK | 18 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 32 |
| 5 | JBK | 18 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 25 |
| 8 | JS Hercules | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | TP-47 | 18 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 19 |
