The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Baniyas SC at 36.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Baniyas SC Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khorfakkan | 29.6% | 37.8% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 34.0% | 24.1% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Baniyas SC | 36.4% | 38.1% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 34.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.03, 0 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Baniyas SC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Baniyas SC by 9.9 percentage points (26.5% vs model 36.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Khorfakkan 29.6% · Draw 34.0% · Baniyas SC 36.4%
- xG · Khorfakkan 0.95 — Baniyas SC 1.08
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Khorfakkan 2.52 · Draw 3.95 · Baniyas SC 2.50
- Implied 1X2 · Khorfakkan 37.8% · Draw 24.1% · Baniyas SC 38.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Khorfakkan 2.52 · Draw 3.95 · Baniyas SC 2.50
- Implied 1X2 · Khorfakkan 37.8% · Draw 24.1% · Baniyas SC 38.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
50/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Khorfakkan 0–0 Baniyas SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0664,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0524,
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"text": "+5.2%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Baniyas SC",
"sort_key": 5241.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"top_label": "0-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"alert_team": "Baniyas SC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.88,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_team": "Baniyas SC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7394,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7394,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Baniyas SC at 36.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Baniyas SC as the value side (36.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Baniyas SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +73.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +73.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +73.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+73.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0664,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.13"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.13
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.88,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.88,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.95,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.08,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.95 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"steam_team": "Baniyas SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7394,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7394,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Baniyas SC at 36.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Baniyas SC as the value side (36.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Baniyas SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +73.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +73.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +73.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+73.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0664,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -20.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.13"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.13
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Khorfakkan 0.95 xG vs Baniyas SC 1.08 \u2192 Baniyas SC 36.4%",
"Market: Baniyas SC ~38.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Baniyas SC odds \u2191 +8.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Baniyas SC, but the market has moved away from Baniyas SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob": 29.62,
"label": "Khorfakkan",
"market_prob": 37.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.88,
"fair_prob": 33.99,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.71,
"fair_prob": 36.39,
"label": "Baniyas SC",
"market_prob": 38.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.82,
"fair_prob": 33.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.82,
"fair_prob": 66.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.54,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.54,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.99,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.11,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Baniyas SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 34.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.88,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Baniyas SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Khorfakkan 0.95 xG vs Baniyas SC 1.08 \u2192 Baniyas SC 36.4%",
"Market: Baniyas SC ~38.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Baniyas SC odds \u2191 +8.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Baniyas SC, but the market has moved away from Baniyas SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.88,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Baniyas SC odds lengthened \u2191 +8.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Baniyas SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Baniyas SC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Baniyas SC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.88,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.4 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.4,
"max_prob_pct": 36.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.9,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.17,
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Khorfakkan",
"market_prob_pct": 37.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.88,
"edge_pp": 9.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.99,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.71,
"edge_pp": -1.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Baniyas SC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Baniyas SC (38.1%).",
"Baniyas SC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.7%, 2/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Baniyas SC, Market \u2192 Baniyas SC, while Baniyas SC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.32,
"closing_odds": 3.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.32,
"entry_odds": 3.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "2/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Baniyas SC (8.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.50",
"2.40",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.51 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h",
"pick_team": "Baniyas SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.51"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Baniyas SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Baniyas SC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Baniyas SC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/12",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Baniyas SC",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Baniyas SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "baniyas-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Baniyas SC",
"away_team_id": 2877,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2877.webp",
"away_team_name": "Baniyas SC",
"away_team_public_id": "3Cdfnqi22Q9ZPo",
"away_team_slug": "baniyas-sc",
"country_code": "AE",
"country_display_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ae.svg",
"country_id": 161,
"country_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"fixture_id": 1634290,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"home_team_display_name": "Khorfakkan",
"home_team_id": 4912,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4912.webp",
"home_team_name": "Khorfakkan",
"home_team_public_id": "28LKWyIi1uJGni",
"home_team_slug": "khorfakkan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "khorfakkan",
"league_country": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_country_display": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_display_name": "Pro League de Emiratos \u00c1rabes Unidos",
"league_id": 301,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/301.webp",
"league_name": "Pro League de Emiratos \u00c1rabes Unidos",
"league_public_id": "4snAuAEVTgp1A4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 13:40:00",
"public_id": "3DlecDdXYa18w9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Khor Fakkan",
"venue_name": "Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4384,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.381,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.381,
"draw": 0.2411,
"home": 0.3779
},
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"p_final": 0.3734
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2554,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0253,
"ev": 0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.2411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.381,
"draw": 0.2411,
"home": 0.3779
},
"model_prob": 0.3403,
"p_final": 0.2664
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3947,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1291,
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.381,
"draw": 0.2411,
"home": 0.3779
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3456
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.0906,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3638
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": 0.0871,
"ev": 0.344,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.3403
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": -0.1009,
"ev": -0.2542,
"implied_prob": 0.3968,
"model_prob": 0.296
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1952,
"alpha_yes": 0.2684,
"best_no_odd": 2.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2254,
"edge_yes": -0.2254,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.6184,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.038,
"ev_yes": -0.3923,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1622,
"implied_no": 0.3526,
"implied_yes": 0.6474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1952,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0437,
"ev": 0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.3977
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2684,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0601,
"ev": -0.1622,
"implied_prob": 0.646,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.5859
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.3977,
"p_final_yes": 0.5859,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2318,
"alpha_under": 0.1686,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.4,
"edge_over": -0.2882,
"edge_under": 0.2882,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4936,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1758,
"ev_under": 0.7394,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0381,
"implied_over": 0.6192,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6154,
"implied_under": 0.3808,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3846,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.6154,
"model_prob": 0.331,
"p_final": 0.5495
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0479,
"ev": 0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.669,
"p_final": 0.4326
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5495,
"p_final_under": 0.4326,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.03,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7394,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7394,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7394,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7394,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7394,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Baniyas SC at 36.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Baniyas SC as the value side (36.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Baniyas SC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +73.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +73.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +73.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+73.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"Decision strength: 3.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Baniyas SC, but the model still strongly favours Baniyas SC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
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},
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},
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.3403,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3638,
"over_prob": 0.331,
"total_xg": 2.03,
"under_prob": 0.669,
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},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
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"implied_prob": 0.2411,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3403,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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"edge": -0.0075,
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Baniyas SC"
},
"btts": {
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},
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}
},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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},
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}
},
"match_id": 1634290,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7394,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.3403,
"home": 0.296
},
"reason_codes": [
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"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"implied_prob": 0.3526,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"implied_prob": 0.3526,
"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Baniyas SC",
"home": "Khorfakkan"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7394,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3638,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1634290,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T13:39:12.930455+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Pro League de Emiratos Árabes Unidos — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Dhafra FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Dubai United | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 13 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hatta SC | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Al-Dhafra FC | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
