The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Havadar at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Havadar Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mes Rafsanjan | 34.2% | 43.9% | -9.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.2% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Havadar | 36.1% | 25.9% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Havadar's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Havadar.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Havadar by 10.2 percentage points (25.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Havadar 36.1%
- xG · Mes Rafsanjan 1.28 — Havadar 1.32
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mes Rafsanjan 2.03 · Draw 2.95 · Havadar 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 43.9% · Draw 30.2% · Havadar 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mes Rafsanjan 2.03 · Draw 2.95 · Havadar 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 43.9% · Draw 30.2% · Havadar 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 Havadar
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0199,
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"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
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"sort_key": 1795.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/2",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/2 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"alert_team": "Havadar",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.21,
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"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Havadar",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2416,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havadar at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havadar as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havadar",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/2",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"steam_team": "Havadar",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2416,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havadar at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havadar as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havadar",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mes Rafsanjan 1.28 xG vs Havadar 1.32 \u2192 Havadar 36.1%",
"Market: Mes Rafsanjan ~25.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Havadar \u2193 -3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Havadar with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"market_prob": 43.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.55,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.21,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Havadar",
"market_prob": 25.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.4,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.4,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.76,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.76,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Havadar",
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Havadar"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Havadar\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Havadar",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Havadar \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mes Rafsanjan 1.28 xG vs Havadar 1.32 \u2192 Havadar 36.1%",
"Market: Mes Rafsanjan ~25.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Havadar \u2193 -3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Havadar with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.21,
"hero_label": "Havadar",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Havadar odds shortened \u2193 -3.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Havadar.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Havadar."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Havadar more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Havadar (\u2193 -3.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Havadar",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.2,
"lead": "The model rates Havadar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.65,
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"market_prob_pct": 43.89,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.55,
"edge_pp": -0.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.21,
"edge_pp": 10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Havadar",
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mes Rafsanjan (25.9%).",
"Havadar has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.3%, 1/2).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Havadar, Market \u2192 Mes Rafsanjan, Recent sharp money \u2192 Havadar.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.07,
"closing_odds": 3.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.07,
"entry_odds": 3.44,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
}
],
"books_total": 2,
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.54,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 19m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Havadar (swing 3.66 \u2192 3.44 \u2192 3.54) \u2014 net 3.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.66",
"3.55",
"3.44"
],
"display": "3.66 \u2192 3.44 \u2192 3.54",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 19m",
"pick_team": "Havadar",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.66"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.44"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.54"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.66,
3.44,
3.54
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.66"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.44"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.54"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.66,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Illiquid",
"phase_tip": "Few bookmakers quoting \u2014 moves may not reflect broad market.",
"pick_team": "Havadar",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.54,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.66,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Havadar",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"current_odds": 3.54,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.66,
"pick_team": "Havadar",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Havadar",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "havadar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Havadar",
"away_team_id": 15541,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15541.webp",
"away_team_name": "Havadar",
"away_team_public_id": "0az2QpZcjO2m5s",
"away_team_slug": "havadar",
"country_code": "IR",
"country_display_name": "Iran",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ir.svg",
"country_id": 75,
"country_name": "Iran",
"fixture_id": 1632797,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iran",
"home_team_display_name": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"home_team_id": 2706,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2706.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mes Rafsanjan",
"home_team_public_id": "5FHmv1rGR0C369",
"home_team_slug": "mes-rafsanjan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mes-rafsanjan",
"league_country": "Iran",
"league_country_display": "Iran",
"league_display_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_id": 291,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/291.webp",
"league_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_public_id": "2xgV5HSTOHOOvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 14:30:00",
"public_id": "2LM5oPg91L1UGM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tafresh",
"venue_name": "Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2541,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.259,
"draw": 0.302,
"home": 0.4389
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4464,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.116,
"implied_prob": 0.302,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.259,
"draw": 0.302,
"home": 0.4389
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2996
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3848,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0372,
"ev": -0.1844,
"implied_prob": 0.4389,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.259,
"draw": 0.302,
"home": 0.4389
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4018
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0702,
"ev": 0.2416,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.1248,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1502,
"ev": -0.3049,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1401,
"alpha_yes": 0.1019,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.23,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1276,
"edge_yes": 0.1276,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1078,
"ev_yes": 0.2154,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0509,
"implied_no": 0.5826,
"implied_yes": 0.4174,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1401,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5826,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5647
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1019,
"best_odd": 2.205,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.4174,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4304
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5647,
"p_final_yes": 0.4304,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1026,
"alpha_under": 0.141,
"best_over_odd": 2.56,
"best_under_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.555,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.425,
"edge_over": 0.124,
"edge_under": -0.124,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2339,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0527,
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1101,
"implied_over": 0.358,
"implied_over_mf": 0.358,
"implied_under": 0.642,
"implied_under_mf": 0.642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1026,
"best_odd": 2.555,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3708
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.141,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6245
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3708,
"p_final_under": 0.6245,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2416,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2416,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havadar at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havadar as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havadar",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havadar).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Havadar"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1019,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.205,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.4174,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1401,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5826,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5647
},
"p_final": 0.4304,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1019,
"best_odd": 2.205,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.4174,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4304
}
},
"edge": 0.1276,
"ev": 0.2154,
"implied_prob": 0.4174,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1026,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.555,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1026,
"best_odd": 2.555,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3708
},
"p_final": 0.3708,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0527,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.141,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6245
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.124,
"ev": 0.2339,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632797,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2339,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2339,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2339,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Havadar",
"home": "Mes Rafsanjan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.103306,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2154,
"implied_prob": 0.4174,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.259,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+24.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632797,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T14:29:35.107147+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Azadegan League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 5 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
