The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Países Bajos Sub-19 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Países Bajos Sub-19 Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Países Bajos Sub-19 | 36.6% | 43.2% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.6% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Bélgica Sub-19 | 33.8% | 33.2% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Países Bajos Sub-19's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Países Bajos Sub-19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Países Bajos Sub-19; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Países Bajos Sub-19 by 6.6 percentage points (43.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Países Bajos Sub-19 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Bélgica Sub-19 33.8%
- xG · Países Bajos Sub-19 1.33 — Bélgica Sub-19 1.27
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Países Bajos Sub-19 2.12 · Draw 3.87 · Bélgica Sub-19 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Países Bajos Sub-19 43.2% · Draw 23.6% · Bélgica Sub-19 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Países Bajos Sub-19 2.12 · Draw 3.87 · Bélgica Sub-19 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Países Bajos Sub-19 43.2% · Draw 23.6% · Bélgica Sub-19 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.12
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Países Bajos Sub-19 1–1 Bélgica Sub-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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},
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{
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.6%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.6,
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"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"summary": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
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"execution_confidence": 32,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1412,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.59,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"steam_team": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1412,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 1.33 xG vs B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 1.27 \u2192 Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 36.6%",
"Market: Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 ~43.2% implied",
"Market Steam: B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 \u2193 -17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19, but sharp money moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.59,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"market_prob": 43.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.99,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"market_prob": 33.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.52,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.52,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.92,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.92,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.18,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19\u0027s win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 1.33 xG vs B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 1.27 \u2192 Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 36.6%",
"Market: Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 ~43.2% implied",
"Market Steam: B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 \u2193 -17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19, but sharp money moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.59,
"hero_label": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 odds shortened \u2193 -17.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, with odds shortening by 17.6%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 \u2014 odds shortened by 17.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, with odds shortening by 17.6%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 \u2014 odds shortened by 17.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.6%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.59,
"edge_pp": -6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.18,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.99,
"edge_pp": 5.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.6,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 33.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 \u2014 odds shortened by 17.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 (43.2%).",
"However, B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.6%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19, Market \u2192 Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19, Recent sharp money \u2192 B\u00e9lgica Sub-19.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 (17.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.08",
"2.76"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 56m",
"pick_team": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
2.76,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,16.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.76"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "belgium-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 10327,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10327.webp",
"away_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "0LoK01iQxUkZr1",
"away_team_slug": "belgium-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1632348,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 10340,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10340.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "1fQBGjefkqooMK",
"home_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "netherlands-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 11:00:00",
"public_id": "19stTqGEABKohs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.446,
"best_odd": 2.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.3317,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3317,
"draw": 0.2365,
"home": 0.4318
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3343
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.273,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.2365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3317,
"draw": 0.2365,
"home": 0.4318
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2529
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4056,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.1412,
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3317,
"draw": 0.2365,
"home": 0.4318
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4051
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.76,
"edge": -0.0248,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0381,
"ev": 0.1474,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.1057,
"ev": -0.2241,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1554,
"alpha_yes": 0.2137,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0892,
"edge_yes": -0.0892,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.183,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0549,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1182,
"implied_no": 0.3658,
"implied_yes": 0.6342,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1554,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.3639,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.378
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.6361,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6167
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.378,
"p_final_yes": 0.6167,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1963,
"alpha_under": 0.1428,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1352,
"edge_under": 0.1352,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1346,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0483,
"implied_over": 0.6172,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6198,
"implied_under": 0.3828,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3802,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5927,
"p_final_under": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward B\u00e9lgica Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1412,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.1412,
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1554,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0142,
"market_prob": 0.3639,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1554,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.3639,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.378
},
"p_final": 0.378,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0549,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2137,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.6361,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6167
}
},
"edge": 0.0892,
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.3658,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"p_final": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1352,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632348,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.3658,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.183,
"implied_prob": 0.3658,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "B\u00e9lgica Sub-19",
"home": "Pa\u00edses Bajos Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1412,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2241,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632348,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T10:59:12.217871+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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