The model missed the final outcome (Inglaterra Sub-20 win 2–1).
The model had projected Alemania Sub-20 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Alemania Sub-20 Inglaterra Sub-20 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Inglaterra Sub-20 win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Inglaterra Sub-20 1.27 — Alemania Sub-20 1.33
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inglaterra Sub-20 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inglaterra Sub-20 win · Inglaterra Sub-20 2–1 Alemania Sub-20
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"text": "-6.2%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Alemania Sub-20",
"sort_key": 1784.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"alert_team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.93,
"hero_label": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"market_team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Alemania Sub-20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemania Sub-20 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemania Sub-20 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemania Sub-20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.347,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.93,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"steam_team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemania Sub-20 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemania Sub-20 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemania Sub-20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.347,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inglaterra Sub-20 1.27 xG vs Alemania Sub-20 1.33 \u2192 Alemania Sub-20 36.6%",
"Market: Inglaterra Sub-20 ~34.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Inglaterra Sub-20 \u2193 -11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alemania Sub-20, but sharp money moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"market_prob": 37.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.04,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Alemania Sub-20",
"market_prob": 34.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.93,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.93,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.14,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Inglaterra Sub-20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alemania Sub-20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inglaterra Sub-20 1.27 xG vs Alemania Sub-20 1.33 \u2192 Alemania Sub-20 36.6%",
"Market: Inglaterra Sub-20 ~34.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Inglaterra Sub-20 \u2193 -11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Alemania Sub-20, but sharp money moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.93,
"hero_label": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Inglaterra Sub-20 odds shortened \u2193 -11.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inglaterra Sub-20.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inglaterra Sub-20."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Inglaterra Sub-20 (\u2193 -11.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Inglaterra Sub-20."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.93,
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.04,
"edge_pp": 2.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.89,
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alemania Sub-20",
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inglaterra Sub-20.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Inglaterra Sub-20 (34.7%).",
"However, Inglaterra Sub-20 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -11.9%, 5/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Alemania Sub-20, Market \u2192 Inglaterra Sub-20, Recent sharp money \u2192 Inglaterra Sub-20.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.15,
"closing_odds": 2.43,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.15,
"entry_odds": 2.43,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.5
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Inglaterra Sub-20 (11.9%, 5/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.54",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.38",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 46m",
"pick_team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.43,
2.38
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.38"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Inglaterra Sub-20 \u2193 -11.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Inglaterra Sub-20 \u2193 -11.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.38,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "germany-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Alemania Sub-20",
"away_team_id": 10310,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10310.webp",
"away_team_name": "Alemania Sub-20",
"away_team_public_id": "1555nmGKDhL2gL",
"away_team_slug": "germany-u20",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1632090,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"home_team_id": 10309,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10309.webp",
"home_team_name": "Inglaterra Sub-20",
"home_team_public_id": "0a1xd8Bw3XbVqI",
"home_team_slug": "england-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "england-u20",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Elite Sub-20",
"league_id": 890,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/890.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Elite Sub-20",
"league_public_id": "3LL0KHXjrFzQjC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 15:30:00",
"public_id": "0Nt5bzbMRPevno",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4372,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.347,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.347,
"draw": 0.276,
"home": 0.377
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3553
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2908,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.347,
"draw": 0.276,
"home": 0.377
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2819
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4234,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.377,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.347,
"draw": 0.276,
"home": 0.377
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3603
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0157,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.074,
"ev": -0.1798,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.168,
"alpha_yes": 0.231,
"best_no_odd": 2.26,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0414,
"edge_yes": -0.0414,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0283,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.076,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1082,
"implied_no": 0.4136,
"implied_yes": 0.5864,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4107,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4181
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.231,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.5893,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5791
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4181,
"p_final_yes": 0.5791,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2206,
"alpha_under": 0.2006,
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.0693,
"edge_under": 0.0693,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1758,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0955,
"ev_under": 0.1033,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0383,
"implied_over": 0.5513,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5544,
"implied_under": 0.4487,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4456,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.5544,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5384
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2006,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.4456,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4601
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5384,
"p_final_under": 0.4601,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1033,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1033,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemania Sub-20 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemania Sub-20 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemania Sub-20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Inglaterra Sub-20, but the model still strongly favours Alemania Sub-20.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.64,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.347,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3787878787878788,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
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}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
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"markets": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
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},
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"over": {
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},
"match_id": 1632090,
"match_regime": {
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
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"teams": {
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},
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632090,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T15:29:39.790892+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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