AI correctly predicted the Palmeiras win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Palmeiras Palmeiras ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 63.9% | 74.7% | -10.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 22.9% | 17.8% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| LDU de Quito | 13.2% | 7.4% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Palmeiras's win probability at 74.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 63.9%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Palmeiras win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Palmeiras attacking xG significantly stronger (2.02 vs 0.83)
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Palmeiras higher (74.8% vs model 63.9%, 10.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Palmeiras win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Palmeiras 63.8% · Draw 23.0% · LDU de Quito 13.3%
- xG · Palmeiras 2.02 — LDU de Quito 0.83
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Palmeiras 1.26 · Draw 5.28 · LDU de Quito 12.69
- Implied 1X2 · Palmeiras 74.7% · Draw 17.8% · LDU de Quito 7.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Palmeiras 1.26 · Draw 5.28 · LDU de Quito 12.69
- Implied 1X2 · Palmeiras 74.7% · Draw 17.8% · LDU de Quito 7.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Palmeiras win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
45/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Palmeiras win · Palmeiras 1–0 LDU de Quito
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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},
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palmeiras at 63.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 74.7%.",
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"tone": "ok"
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{
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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{
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],
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
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"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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"label": "Reason",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
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"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"name": "Market Conflict",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Palmeiras \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1631507 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +38.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.19"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.19
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.89,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.83,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.02,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.02,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.02 \u00b7 Away xG 0.83 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"steam_team": "Palmeiras",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palmeiras at 63.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 74.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palmeiras as the value side (63.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palmeiras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Palmeiras \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1631507 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +38.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.19"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.19
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palmeiras 2.02 xG vs LDU de Quito 0.83 \u2192 Palmeiras 63.9%",
"Market: Palmeiras ~74.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Palmeiras odds \u2191 +1.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Palmeiras, but the market has moved away from Palmeiras.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob": 63.85,
"label": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob": 74.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 22.91,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 17.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 13.24,
"label": "LDU de Quito",
"market_prob": 7.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.05,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.05,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.17,
"fair_prob": 50.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 34.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.17,
"fair_prob": 49.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 65.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob_pct": 74.74,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Palmeiras"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Palmeiras\u0027s win probability at 74.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 63.9%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Palmeiras",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 74.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.8,
"model_prob_pct": 63.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 63,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palmeiras 2.02 xG vs LDU de Quito 0.83 \u2192 Palmeiras 63.9%",
"Market: Palmeiras ~74.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Palmeiras odds \u2191 +1.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Palmeiras, but the market has moved away from Palmeiras.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.89,
"hero_label": "Palmeiras",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Palmeiras odds lengthened \u2191 +1.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Palmeiras more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Palmeiras (\u2191 +1.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Palmeiras."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 40.9 pp (at 63.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 40.9,
"max_prob_pct": 63.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Palmeiras",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Palmeiras higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.89,
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Palmeiras",
"market_prob_pct": 74.74,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 17.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.82,
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "LDU de Quito",
"market_prob_pct": 7.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Palmeiras (74.7%).",
"Palmeiras odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +1.6%, 5/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Palmeiras, Market \u2192 Palmeiras, while Palmeiras odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 79.37,
"closing_odds": 1.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 79.37,
"entry_odds": 1.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Stable line on Palmeiras \u2014 tracking only (1.6% vs. open).",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.30",
"1.28",
"1.26"
],
"display": "1.30 \u2192 1.22 \u2192 1.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Palmeiras",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.28,
1.26,
1.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.28"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.26"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.28,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Palmeiras",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "neutral",
"signal_icon": "\u2014",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"open_odds": 1.28,
"summary": "Market moved away from Palmeiras while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Palmeiras",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "tracking",
"signal_label": "Tracking",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 1.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.6%",
"open_odds": 1.28,
"pick_team": "Palmeiras",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Palmeiras",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ldu-de-quito",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "LDU de Quito",
"away_team_id": 1158,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1158.webp",
"away_team_name": "LDU de Quito",
"away_team_public_id": "5LJnwIZPagjg3I",
"away_team_slug": "ldu-de-quito",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1631507,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Palmeiras",
"home_team_id": 121,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/121.webp",
"home_team_name": "Palmeiras",
"home_team_public_id": "3VP2oLsoYIsNW7",
"home_team_slug": "palmeiras",
"ht.home_team_slug": "palmeiras",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
"league_id": 13,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/13.webp",
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
"league_public_id": "3EuvLhbCdN21UC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 22:00:00",
"public_id": "0IGzSDJJZ0OOCq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quito",
"venue_name": "Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1825,
"best_odd": 12.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": 0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.0742,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0742,
"draw": 0.1784,
"home": 0.7474
},
"model_prob": 0.1326,
"p_final": 0.0849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1846,
"best_odd": 5.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.1784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0742,
"draw": 0.1784,
"home": 0.7474
},
"model_prob": 0.2296,
"p_final": 0.1878
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5013,
"best_odd": 1.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.1275,
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0742,
"draw": 0.1784,
"home": 0.7474
},
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"p_final": 0.6924
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 12.69,
"edge": 0.0538,
"ev": 0.6829,
"implied_prob": 0.0788,
"model_prob": 0.1326
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.28,
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": 0.2125,
"implied_prob": 0.1894,
"model_prob": 0.2296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.26,
"edge": -0.1559,
"ev": -0.1964,
"implied_prob": 0.7937,
"model_prob": 0.6377
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2906,
"alpha_yes": 0.2114,
"best_no_odd": 1.44,
"best_yes_odd": 2.76,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1617,
"edge_yes": 0.1617,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1436,
"ev_yes": 0.3855,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0168,
"implied_no": 0.6597,
"implied_yes": 0.3403,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1436,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.6139
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.6139,
"p_final_yes": 0.3731,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3127,
"alpha_under": 0.3439,
"best_over_odd": 2.04,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.78,
"edge_over": 0.0705,
"edge_under": -0.0705,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1057,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0137,
"ev_under": -0.171,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"implied_over": 0.4715,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4709,
"implied_under": 0.5285,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5291,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4931
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3439,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5046
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4931,
"p_final_under": 0.5046,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3855,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3855,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6829,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palmeiras at 63.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 74.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palmeiras as the value side (63.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palmeiras",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Palmeiras \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1631507 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +38.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Palmeiras, but the model still strongly favours Palmeiras.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=1.19"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.19
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.502,
"draw_prob": 0.2296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6377,
"over_prob": 0.542,
"total_xg": 2.85,
"under_prob": 0.458,
"xg_diff": 1.19
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.0742,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1326,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "LDU de Quito",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.1275,
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Palmeiras"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"market_prob": 0.3386,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2906,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1436,
"implied_prob": 0.6614,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.6139
},
"p_final": 0.3731,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0168,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 2.725,
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"edge": 0.1617,
"ev": 0.3855,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"market_prob": 0.4709,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3127,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4709,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4931
},
"p_final": 0.4931,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0137,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3439,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5046
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0705,
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1631507,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3855,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1326,
"draw": 0.2296,
"home": 0.6377
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.4715,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "LDU de Quito",
"home": "Palmeiras"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.193521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3855,
"implied_prob": 0.3403,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1275,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6377,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7936507936507936,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1965,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1631507,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T21:59:08.570655+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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CONMEBOL Libertadores — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | +2.4 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | +2.3 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco FC | 6 | — | — | — | 1 |
