The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Kun Khalifat FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Kun Khalifat FC Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kun Khalifat FC | 36.1% | 37.1% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.4% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Barau FC | 34.2% | 38.5% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kun Khalifat FC by 5.3 percentage points (30.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kun Khalifat FC 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Barau FC 34.2%
- xG · Kun Khalifat FC 1.32 — Barau FC 1.28
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kun Khalifat FC 2.40 · Draw 3.65 · Barau FC 2.31
- Implied 1X2 · Kun Khalifat FC 37.1% · Draw 24.4% · Barau FC 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kun Khalifat FC 2.40 · Draw 3.65 · Barau FC 2.31
- Implied 1X2 · Kun Khalifat FC 37.1% · Draw 24.4% · Barau FC 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Kun Khalifat FC 0–0 Barau FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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},
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1205,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.0,
"text": "-12.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0567,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"sort_key": 1785.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +41.7%",
"alert_team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.27,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.1,
"market_team": "Barau FC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2372,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2372,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kun Khalifat FC at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kun Khalifat FC as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1205,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.27,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 41.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +41.7%",
"steam_team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2372,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2372,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kun Khalifat FC at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kun Khalifat FC as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1205,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kun Khalifat FC 1.32 xG vs Barau FC 1.28 \u2192 Kun Khalifat FC 36.1%",
"Market: Barau FC ~37.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Kun Khalifat FC odds \u2191 +41.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kun Khalifat FC, but the market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.98,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"market_prob": 37.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Barau FC",
"market_prob": 38.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.24,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.24,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.38,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Kun Khalifat FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kun Khalifat FC 1.32 xG vs Barau FC 1.28 \u2192 Kun Khalifat FC 36.1%",
"Market: Barau FC ~37.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Kun Khalifat FC odds \u2191 +41.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kun Khalifat FC, but the market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.27,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Kun Khalifat FC odds lengthened \u2191 +41.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Kun Khalifat FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 41.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Kun Khalifat FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 41.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Kun Khalifat FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 41.7%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Kun Khalifat FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 41.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Kun Khalifat FC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 41.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/5), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.3,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.98,
"edge_pp": -0.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"market_prob_pct": 37.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.27,
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.29,
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Barau FC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Kun Khalifat FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 41.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Barau FC (37.1%).",
"However, Kun Khalifat FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +41.7%, 2/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kun Khalifat FC, Market \u2192 Barau FC, while Kun Khalifat FC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.4,
"closing_odds": 3.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.4,
"entry_odds": 3.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +44.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 44.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +41.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 41.7
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +41.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 41.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Kun Khalifat FC (41.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 41.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"2.90",
"2.40"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 1.68 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 51m",
"pick_team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Kun Khalifat FC odds \u2191 +41.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Kun Khalifat FC odds \u2191 +41.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +41.7%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Kun Khalifat FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +41.7%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Barau FC",
"away_team_id": 26400,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Barau FC",
"away_team_public_id": "1329tqMjgxCK0r",
"away_team_slug": "barau-fc",
"country_code": "NG",
"country_display_name": "Nigeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ng.svg",
"country_id": 118,
"country_name": "Nigeria",
"fixture_id": 1628485,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"home_team_id": 26401,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"home_team_public_id": "1YIk6QIg9cKzmP",
"home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Nigeria",
"league_country_display": "Nigeria",
"league_display_name": "NPFL",
"league_id": 399,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/399.webp",
"league_name": "NPFL",
"league_public_id": "2f8YNpNoRzrmtN",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1FMTGmRfuJNgf7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.421,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1517,
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3853,
"draw": 0.2438,
"home": 0.3709
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3672
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2762,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.2438,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3853,
"draw": 0.2438,
"home": 0.3709
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2584
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4433,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3853,
"draw": 0.2438,
"home": 0.3709
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3665
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": -0.0905,
"ev": -0.2091,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0557,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1363,
"alpha_yes": 0.0991,
"best_no_odd": 1.54,
"best_yes_odd": 2.27,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1424,
"edge_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2993,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"ev_yes": 0.2372,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.054,
"implied_no": 0.5974,
"implied_yes": 0.4026,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.578
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0991,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4167
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.578,
"p_final_yes": 0.4167,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1525,
"alpha_under": 0.2097,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.46,
"edge_over": 0.1036,
"edge_under": -0.1036,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0582,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"implied_over": 0.3784,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3802,
"implied_under": 0.6216,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6198,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2097,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5984
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3957,
"p_final_under": 0.5984,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2372,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2372,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2372,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2372,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2372,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kun Khalifat FC at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kun Khalifat FC as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kun Khalifat FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Kun Khalifat FC, but the model still strongly favours Kun Khalifat FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1205,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kun Khalifat FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0991,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.4026,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.578
},
"p_final": 0.4167,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.054,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0991,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4167
}
},
"edge": 0.1424,
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"p_final": 0.3957,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5984
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1036,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1628485,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2372,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barau FC",
"home": "Kun Khalifat FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.113761,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1205,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1628485,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:02:24.453399+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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NPFL — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barau FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Doma United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Abia Warriors | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Kwara United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Sporting Lagos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Katsina United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Shooting Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Kun Khalifat FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | Enyimba | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 5 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 11 |
| 2 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Barau FC | 6 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Plateau United | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 5 | Doma United | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Kwara United | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sporting Lagos | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Abia Warriors | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Shooting Stars | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Katsina United | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Warri Wolves | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Enyimba | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
