The model missed the final outcome (Leicesterfield win 1–0).
The model had projected Midlands Wanderers at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Midlands Wanderers Leicesterfield ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicesterfield | 34.7% | 39.0% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.1% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Midlands Wanderers | 35.6% | 31.0% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Leicesterfield win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Leicesterfield win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leicesterfield 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Midlands Wanderers 35.6%
- xG · Leicesterfield 1.29 — Midlands Wanderers 1.31
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leicesterfield 2.32 · Draw 3.01 · Midlands Wanderers 2.92
- Implied 1X2 · Leicesterfield 39.0% · Draw 30.1% · Midlands Wanderers 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leicesterfield 2.32 · Draw 3.01 · Midlands Wanderers 2.92
- Implied 1X2 · Leicesterfield 39.0% · Draw 30.1% · Midlands Wanderers 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Leicesterfield win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
26/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Leicesterfield win · Leicesterfield 1–0 Midlands Wanderers
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Midlands Wanderers as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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"gates_failed": [
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
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{
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"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0391,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.67,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Leicesterfield",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Midlands Wanderers at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Midlands Wanderers as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Midlands Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0391,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Leicesterfield 1.29 xG vs Midlands Wanderers 1.31 \u2192 Midlands Wanderers 35.6%",
"Market: Leicesterfield ~31.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Leicesterfield +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Midlands Wanderers with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.28,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Leicesterfield",
"market_prob": 38.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.4,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Midlands Wanderers",
"market_prob": 30.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.07,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.07,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Midlands Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 30.97,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Leicesterfield"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Midlands Wanderers",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Leicesterfield 1.29 xG vs Midlands Wanderers 1.31 \u2192 Midlands Wanderers 35.6%",
"Market: Leicesterfield ~31.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Leicesterfield +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Midlands Wanderers with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.67,
"hero_label": "Midlands Wanderers",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Leicesterfield has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Leicesterfield.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Leicesterfield has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Leicesterfield."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Leicesterfield has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Leicesterfield."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Midlands Wanderers",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.28,
"edge_pp": -4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Leicesterfield",
"market_prob_pct": 38.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.4,
"edge_pp": -0.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.67,
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Midlands Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 30.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Leicesterfield.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Leicesterfield (31.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Midlands Wanderers, Market \u2192 Leicesterfield, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.25,
"closing_odds": 2.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.25,
"entry_odds": 2.92,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Leicesterfield",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Leicesterfield",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "midlands-wanderers",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Midlands Wanderers",
"away_team_id": 26397,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26397.webp",
"away_team_name": "Midlands Wanderers",
"away_team_public_id": "3Z2o30WpiYpUzR",
"away_team_slug": "midlands-wanderers",
"country_code": "ZA",
"country_display_name": "South-Africa",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
"country_id": 143,
"country_name": "South-Africa",
"fixture_id": 1627724,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "South-Africa",
"home_team_display_name": "Leicesterfield",
"home_team_id": 26434,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26434.webp",
"home_team_name": "Leicesterfield",
"home_team_public_id": "05FbBxt6qjcreT",
"home_team_slug": "leicesterfield",
"ht.home_team_slug": "leicesterfield",
"league_country": "South-Africa",
"league_country_display": "South-Africa",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Sud\u00e1frica",
"league_id": 289,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/289.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Sud\u00e1frica",
"league_public_id": "0mhkYeVzyMafIi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3SQ4y1GCqBuC6n",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4188,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3097,
"draw": 0.3005,
"home": 0.3898
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3291
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2983,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.3005,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3097,
"draw": 0.3005,
"home": 0.3898
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2994
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4213,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1372,
"implied_prob": 0.3898,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3097,
"draw": 0.3005,
"home": 0.3898
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3719
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": 0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0838,
"ev": -0.1943,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2176,
"alpha_yes": 0.1978,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0807,
"edge_yes": 0.0807,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1194,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0584,
"implied_no": 0.5357,
"implied_yes": 0.4643,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.518
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4804
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.518,
"p_final_yes": 0.4804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.156,
"alpha_under": 0.2145,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": 0.0875,
"edge_under": -0.0875,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0515,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1125,
"implied_over": 0.3945,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3932,
"implied_under": 0.6055,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6068,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4071
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6068,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5877
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4071,
"p_final_under": 0.5877,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Midlands Wanderers at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Midlands Wanderers as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Midlands Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Leicesterfield, but the model still strongly favours Midlands Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0391,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Midlands Wanderers"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.4645,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.518
},
"p_final": 0.4804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4804
}
},
"edge": 0.0807,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.3932,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4071
},
"p_final": 0.4071,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0515,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6068,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5877
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0875,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.3945,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1627724,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Midlands Wanderers",
"home": "Leicesterfield"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049665,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.3945,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0391,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3424657534246575,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1627724,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:08.183837+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Sudáfrica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Leicesterfield | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Highbury FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Hope FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Cape Town City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Upington City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Gomora United FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Lerumo Lions | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Hungry Lions | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Universidad de Pretoria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | NWU FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | The Bees | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Orbit College FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Upington City | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 2 | Leicesterfield | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 3 | Magesi | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Casric Stars | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cape Town City | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Hungry Lions | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Gomora United FC | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Universidad de Pretoria | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Highbury FC | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | Hope FC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Venda FC | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 | NWU FC | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Orbit College FC | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
