AI correctly predicted the Cape Town City win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Cape Town City Cape Town City ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Town City | 35.2% | 46.9% | -11.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.4% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Hungry Lions | 35.2% | 22.7% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Hungry Lions's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Cape Town City win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Hungry Lions.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cape Town City more conservatively (22.7% vs model 35.2%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cape Town City win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cape Town City 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Hungry Lions 35.2%
- xG · Cape Town City 1.30 — Hungry Lions 1.30
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cape Town City 1.93 · Draw 2.97 · Hungry Lions 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Cape Town City 46.8% · Draw 30.4% · Hungry Lions 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Cape Town City 1.95 · Draw 3.01 · Hungry Lions 4.04
- Implied 1X2 · Cape Town City 46.9% · Draw 30.4% · Hungry Lions 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cape Town City win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
37/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cape Town City win · Cape Town City 2–1 Hungry Lions
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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"tone": "ok"
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{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Cape Town City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1627708 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cape Town City).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.51,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.51,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Cape Town City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cape Town City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cape Town City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4212,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cape Town City at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cape Town City as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cape Town City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Cape Town City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1627708 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cape Town City).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cape Town City 1.30 xG vs Hungry Lions 1.30 \u2192 Cape Town City 35.2%",
"Market: Cape Town City ~46.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Cape Town City +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cape Town City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.77,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Cape Town City",
"market_prob": 46.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.76,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.51,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Hungry Lions",
"market_prob": 22.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.82,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.82,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 12.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Hungry Lions",
"market_prob_pct": 22.66,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Cape Town City"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Hungry Lions\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.7%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 12.51,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cape Town City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Cape Town City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cape Town City 1.30 xG vs Hungry Lions 1.30 \u2192 Cape Town City 35.2%",
"Market: Cape Town City ~46.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Cape Town City +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cape Town City with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.51,
"hero_label": "Hungry Lions",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Cape Town City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Hungry Lions.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Cape Town City.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Hungry Lions.",
"However, Cape Town City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Cape Town City."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Hungry Lions more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Cape Town City has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Cape Town City."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.51,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Hungry Lions",
"largest_gap_pp": 12.5,
"lead": "The model rates Hungry Lions considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.77,
"edge_pp": -11.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cape Town City",
"market_prob_pct": 46.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.76,
"edge_pp": -0.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.51,
"edge_pp": 12.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hungry Lions",
"market_prob_pct": 22.66,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Cape Town City.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cape Town City (46.9%).",
"Cape Town City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.75,
"closing_odds": 4.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.75,
"entry_odds": 4.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Cape Town City",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Cape Town City",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hungry Lions",
"away_team_id": 10561,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10561.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hungry Lions",
"away_team_public_id": "3YkJjwIJsb8SHi",
"away_team_slug": "hungry-lions",
"country_code": "ZA",
"country_display_name": "South-Africa",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
"country_id": 143,
"country_name": "South-Africa",
"fixture_id": 1627708,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "South-Africa",
"home_team_display_name": "Cape Town City",
"home_team_id": 2697,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2697.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cape Town City",
"home_team_public_id": "2CGvTCW7oIYgvw",
"home_team_slug": "cape-town-city",
"league_country": "South-Africa",
"league_country_display": "South-Africa",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Sud\u00e1frica",
"league_id": 289,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/289.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Sud\u00e1frica",
"league_public_id": "0mhkYeVzyMafIi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:00:00",
"public_id": "1iKA8vpj1HUC9C",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cape Town",
"venue_name": "Cape Town Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1624,
"best_odd": 4.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0203,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.2266,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2266,
"draw": 0.3041,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2469
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2966,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0023,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2266,
"draw": 0.3041,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3018
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4942,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0581,
"ev": -0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2266,
"draw": 0.3041,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4113
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.04,
"edge": 0.1042,
"ev": 0.4212,
"implied_prob": 0.2475,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1077,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.161,
"ev": -0.314,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2031,
"alpha_yes": 0.1846,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.16,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1182,
"edge_yes": 0.1182,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1222,
"ev_yes": 0.1772,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0358,
"implied_no": 0.5732,
"implied_yes": 0.4268,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5504
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1846,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.4253,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4474
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5504,
"p_final_yes": 0.4474,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1488,
"alpha_under": 0.2046,
"best_over_odd": 2.57,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1159,
"edge_under": -0.1159,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2387,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0448,
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1217,
"implied_over": 0.3661,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3664,
"implied_under": 0.6339,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6336,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3836
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6099
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3836,
"p_final_under": 0.6099,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4212,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2387,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cape Town City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2387,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4212,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cape Town City at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cape Town City as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cape Town City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Cape Town City \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.61 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1627708 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.61 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cape Town City).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0581,
"ev": -0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cape Town City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1846,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.4253,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5504
},
"p_final": 0.4474,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0358,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1846,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.4253,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4474
}
},
"edge": 0.1182,
"ev": 0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.3664,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3664,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3836
},
"p_final": 0.3836,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0448,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6099
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1159,
"ev": 0.2387,
"implied_prob": 0.3661,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1627708,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2387,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2387,
"implied_prob": 0.3661,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2387,
"implied_prob": 0.3661,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hungry Lions",
"home": "Cape Town City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.096574,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.314,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1627708,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T12:56:06.598238+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Sudáfrica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Leicesterfield | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Highbury FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Hope FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Cape Town City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Upington City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Gomora United FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Lerumo Lions | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Hungry Lions | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Universidad de Pretoria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | NWU FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | The Bees | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Orbit College FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Upington City | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 2 | Leicesterfield | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 3 | Magesi | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Casric Stars | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cape Town City | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Hungry Lions | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Gomora United FC | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Universidad de Pretoria | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Highbury FC | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | Hope FC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Venda FC | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 | NWU FC | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Orbit College FC | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
