The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Pro Palazzolo at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Pro Palazzolo Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scanzorosciate | 33.8% | 35.8% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Pro Palazzolo | 36.6% | 33.6% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Pro Palazzolo; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Scanzorosciate 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Pro Palazzolo 36.6%
- xG · Scanzorosciate 1.27 — Pro Palazzolo 1.33
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Scanzorosciate 2.49 · Draw 2.91 · Pro Palazzolo 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Scanzorosciate 35.8% · Draw 30.6% · Pro Palazzolo 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Scanzorosciate 2.49 · Draw 2.91 · Pro Palazzolo 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Scanzorosciate 35.8% · Draw 30.6% · Pro Palazzolo 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
29/100
Monitoring Confidence
35/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Scanzorosciate 1–1 Pro Palazzolo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-15.8%"
},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -0.8,
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},
"featured": false,
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"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0752,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0752,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0301,
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pro Palazzolo",
"sort_key": 1781.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/3",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/3 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"alert_team": "Scanzorosciate",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.98,
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"model_team": "Pro Palazzolo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pro Palazzolo at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pro Palazzolo as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pro Palazzolo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0301,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.98,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"steam_team": "Scanzorosciate",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pro Palazzolo at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pro Palazzolo as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pro Palazzolo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0301,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Scanzorosciate 1.27 xG vs Pro Palazzolo 1.33 \u2192 Pro Palazzolo 36.6%",
"Market: Scanzorosciate ~33.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Scanzorosciate \u2193 -2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pro Palazzolo, but sharp money moved toward Scanzorosciate.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.0,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Scanzorosciate",
"market_prob": 35.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.97,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.98,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Pro Palazzolo",
"market_prob": 33.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.24,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.24,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pro Palazzolo",
"market_prob_pct": 33.61,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Scanzorosciate"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pro Palazzolo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Scanzorosciate 1.27 xG vs Pro Palazzolo 1.33 \u2192 Pro Palazzolo 36.6%",
"Market: Scanzorosciate ~33.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Scanzorosciate \u2193 -2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pro Palazzolo, but sharp money moved toward Scanzorosciate.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.98,
"hero_label": "Pro Palazzolo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Scanzorosciate odds shortened \u2193 -2.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Scanzorosciate, with odds shortening by 2.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Scanzorosciate, with odds shortening by 2.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Scanzorosciate has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.4%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/3), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Pro Palazzolo",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.0,
"edge_pp": -2.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Scanzorosciate",
"market_prob_pct": 35.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.97,
"edge_pp": -0.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.98,
"edge_pp": 2.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pro Palazzolo",
"market_prob_pct": 33.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Scanzorosciate (33.6%).",
"Scanzorosciate has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.4%, 1/3).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pro Palazzolo, Market \u2192 Scanzorosciate, Recent sharp money \u2192 Scanzorosciate.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.74,
"closing_odds": 2.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.74,
"entry_odds": 2.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 3,
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.49,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Scanzorosciate (2.4%) \u2014 1/3 books shortening the line.",
"Movement is modest or fragmented \u2014 treat as tracking rather than strong steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.55",
"2.52",
"2.49"
],
"display": "2.55 \u2192 2.49",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Scanzorosciate",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.49"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.49
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.49"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Discovery",
"phase_tip": "Early price formation \u2014 opening equilibrium still forming.",
"pick_team": "Scanzorosciate",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.49,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Market moved toward Scanzorosciate while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Scanzorosciate",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"current_odds": 2.49,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Scanzorosciate",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Scanzorosciate",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pro-palazzolo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pro Palazzolo",
"away_team_id": 22329,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22329.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pro Palazzolo",
"away_team_public_id": "2m484bpqGDyGu2",
"away_team_slug": "pro-palazzolo",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1624367,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Scanzorosciate",
"home_team_id": 9457,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9457.webp",
"home_team_name": "Scanzorosciate",
"home_team_public_id": "3Wa9ZSYhtVicVK",
"home_team_slug": "scanzorosciate",
"ht.home_team_slug": "scanzorosciate",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone B",
"league_id": 427,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/427.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone B",
"league_public_id": "4ip7mb0wd1BGNm",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3lndtj5NTKDNKN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4299,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3361,
"draw": 0.3061,
"home": 0.3577
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.349
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4435,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3361,
"draw": 0.3061,
"home": 0.3577
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3018
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4364,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1312,
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3361,
"draw": 0.3061,
"home": 0.3577
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3489
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": -0.0472,
"ev": -0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0641,
"ev": -0.1595,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1474,
"alpha_yes": 0.1474,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0429,
"edge_yes": 0.0429,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0979,
"ev_yes": -0.0081,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0747,
"implied_no": 0.4979,
"implied_yes": 0.5021,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4916
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5084
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4916,
"p_final_yes": 0.5084,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2076,
"alpha_under": 0.2284,
"best_over_odd": 2.13,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0524,
"edge_under": -0.0524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0603,
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.102,
"implied_over": 0.4296,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4305,
"implied_under": 0.5704,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5695,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4412,
"p_final_under": 0.5578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pro Palazzolo at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pro Palazzolo as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pro Palazzolo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Scanzorosciate, but the model still strongly favours Pro Palazzolo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0301,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0267,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4296,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Pro Palazzolo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0063,
"market_prob": 0.5021,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4916
},
"p_final": 0.5084,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0747,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.4305,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
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"p_final": 0.4412
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0603,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0267,
"implied_prob": 0.4296,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1624367,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0267,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pro Palazzolo",
"home": "Scanzorosciate"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0301,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1624367,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:56:21.292717+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie D - Girone B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Chievo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Milan II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Brusaporto | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Virtus Verona | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Piacenza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Pavonese | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Pro Palazzolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Leon | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Caldiero Terme | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Villa Valle | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | Real Calepina | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Scanzorosciate | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Tritium | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Fiorenzuola | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Calepina | 5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Chievo | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | Milan II | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Rovato Vertovese | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 5 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Leon | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Brusaporto | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Tritium | 5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Piacenza | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Villa Valle | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Virtus Verona | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Scanzorosciate | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Pavonese | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Pro Palazzolo | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Club Milano | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorenzuola | 5 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
