AI correctly predicted the Ligorna win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Ligorna Ligorna ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Ligorna win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ligorna 1.45 — Saluzzo 1.15
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ligorna win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ligorna win · Ligorna 2–1 Saluzzo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"away_xg": 1.15,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": -0.1493,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.75,
"market_odds": 1.55,
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"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -22.1,
"value_pct": -34.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 68.3,
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"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 76.5,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.15,
"home_expected": 1.45,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ligorna or Draw",
"prob": 71.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ligorna or Saluzzo",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Saluzzo",
"prob": 57.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Ligorna or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.4,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 42.4,
"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 40.3,
"implied_prob": 20.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Saluzzo Win",
"model_prob": 28.4,
"odds": 4.94
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Saluzzo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 17.98,
"draw": 24.74,
"home": 57.29
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:55:21",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:34:40",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ligorna",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": -14.93,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.74,
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.98,
"gap_pp": 10.43,
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"model_pct": 28.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.25,
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"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.75,
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],
"movement": [
{
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{
"closing": 3.59,
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"implied_closing_pct": 24.74,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 4.94,
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{
"closing": 1.92,
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"implied_closing_pct": 48.25,
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{
"closing": 1.79,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.4,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.0788,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.7,
"market_prob": 0.1149,
"market_prob_pct": 11.5,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2067,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4849,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2274,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.5151,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5028
},
"p_final": 0.4961,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0106,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2067,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4849,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4961
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0241,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0241,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"sort_key": 5219.28,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2197,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.0,
"text": "-22.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0251,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3434,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ligorna",
"sort_key": 1793.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0002,
"edge_pp": 0.0,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4812
},
"p_final": 0.4812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0794,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0809,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5188
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0365,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1791.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"alert_team": "Saluzzo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.92,
"hero_label": "Ligorna",
"market_prob_pct": 57.3,
"market_team": "Ligorna",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Ligorna",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 91,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ligorna at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ligorna as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ligorna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ligorna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1624069 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2197,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3434,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.92,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"steam_team": "Saluzzo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ligorna at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ligorna as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ligorna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ligorna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1624069 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2197,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3434,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ligorna 1.45 xG vs Saluzzo 1.15 \u2192 Ligorna 42.4%",
"Market: Ligorna ~57.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Saluzzo odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ligorna with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.92,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Ligorna",
"market_prob": 57.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.52,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.39,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Saluzzo",
"market_prob": 17.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.08,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ligorna",
"market_prob_pct": 57.29,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Saluzzo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ligorna\u0027s win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ligorna",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 57.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.9,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Ligorna \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ligorna 1.45 xG vs Saluzzo 1.15 \u2192 Ligorna 42.4%",
"Market: Ligorna ~57.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Saluzzo odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ligorna with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.92,
"hero_label": "Ligorna",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Saluzzo odds lengthened \u2191 +21.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Saluzzo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ligorna than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Saluzzo \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ligorna than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Saluzzo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Saluzzo \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ligorna more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Saluzzo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Saluzzo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ligorna",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ligorna higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.92,
"edge_pp": -14.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ligorna",
"market_prob_pct": 57.29,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.52,
"edge_pp": 4.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.39,
"edge_pp": 10.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Saluzzo",
"market_prob_pct": 17.98,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Saluzzo \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ligorna (57.3%).",
"However, Saluzzo has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.8%, 7/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Ligorna \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.52,
"closing_odds": 1.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.52,
"entry_odds": 1.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/7 books lengthened Saluzzo together (21.8% drift, score 91) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.94",
"4.42",
"3.90"
],
"display": "5.35 \u2192 3.65 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 29m",
"pick_team": "Saluzzo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
4.94,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Saluzzo odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Saluzzo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Saluzzo odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Saluzzo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 91,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Saluzzo",
"steam_score": 91,
"steam_team_name": "Saluzzo",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "saluzzo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Saluzzo",
"away_team_id": 17814,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17814.webp",
"away_team_name": "Saluzzo",
"away_team_public_id": "1HogTiOwqaHLi5",
"away_team_slug": "saluzzo",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1624069,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Ligorna",
"home_team_id": 9437,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9437.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ligorna",
"home_team_public_id": "5PfHpEZKorl0LQ",
"home_team_slug": "ligorna",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ligorna",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone A",
"league_id": 426,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/426.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone A",
"league_public_id": "3SJFB0aavhQKDo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2MP8IkwZ1T8DrD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1687,
"best_odd": 4.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.1798,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1798,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.5729
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.1973
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2798,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.2474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1798,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.5729
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2599
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4657,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0695,
"ev": -0.2197,
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1798,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.5729
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.5034
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.94,
"edge": 0.0816,
"ev": 0.4031,
"implied_prob": 0.2024,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": 0.0495,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.2215,
"ev": -0.3434,
"implied_prob": 0.6452,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2274,
"alpha_yes": 0.2067,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0508,
"edge_yes": 0.0508,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1564,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1125,
"ev_yes": 0.0241,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0699,
"implied_no": 0.5118,
"implied_yes": 0.4882,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2274,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.5151,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5028
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2067,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4849,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4961
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5028,
"p_final_yes": 0.4961,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2247,
"alpha_under": 0.2471,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.86,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.91,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.77,
"edge_over": 0.0007,
"edge_under": -0.0007,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0809,
"ev_under": -0.0365,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0818,
"implied_over": 0.4813,
"implied_over_mf": 0.481,
"implied_under": 0.5187,
"implied_under_mf": 0.519,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4812
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5188
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4812,
"p_final_under": 0.5188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4031,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0241,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ligorna at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ligorna as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ligorna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ligorna \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1624069 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ligorna).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2197,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3434,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0241,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0695,
"ev": -0.2197,
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ligorna"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2067,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.4849,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2274,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.5151,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5028
},
"p_final": 0.4961,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2067,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4849,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4961
}
},
"edge": 0.0508,
"ev": 0.0241,
"implied_prob": 0.4882,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0002,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4812
},
"p_final": 0.4812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0809,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5188
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4813,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1624069,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Saluzzo",
"home": "Ligorna"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2197,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3434,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1624069,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T12:55:23.629532+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie D - Girone A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Bra | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biellese | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 14 |
| 2 | Alessandria | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 3 | Ligorna | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 4 | Saluzzo | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Chisola | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Millesimo | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Asti | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Gozzano | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Derthona | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Imperia | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Fezzanese | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Valenzana | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Lascaris | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Bra | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 5 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
