AI correctly predicted the Vicenza Sub-19 win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Vicenza Sub-19 Vicenza Sub-19 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza Sub-19 | 36.1% | 46.2% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Pro Vercelli Sub-19 | 34.2% | 28.1% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Vicenza Sub-19's win probability at 46.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Vicenza Sub-19 win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Vicenza Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vicenza Sub-19 higher (46.2% vs model 36.1%, 10.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vicenza Sub-19 win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vicenza Sub-19 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Pro Vercelli Sub-19 34.2%
- xG · Vicenza Sub-19 1.32 — Pro Vercelli Sub-19 1.28
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vicenza Sub-19 1.95 · Draw 3.50 · Pro Vercelli Sub-19 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Vicenza Sub-19 46.2% · Draw 25.7% · Pro Vercelli Sub-19 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vicenza Sub-19 1.95 · Draw 3.50 · Pro Vercelli Sub-19 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Vicenza Sub-19 46.2% · Draw 25.7% · Pro Vercelli Sub-19 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vicenza Sub-19 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
49/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vicenza Sub-19 win · Vicenza Sub-19 2–0 Pro Vercelli Sub-19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.1999,
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"label": "Reason",
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"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
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"version": "v1"
},
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"primary_block_explain": {
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{
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"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
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}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vicenza Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1999,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4616,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.05,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vicenza Sub-19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vicenza Sub-19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vicenza Sub-19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vicenza Sub-19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vicenza Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1999,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4616,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vicenza Sub-19 1.32 xG vs Pro Vercelli Sub-19 1.28 \u2192 Vicenza Sub-19 36.1%",
"Market: Vicenza Sub-19 ~46.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Vicenza Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vicenza Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.05,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"market_prob": 46.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.11,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Pro Vercelli Sub-19",
"market_prob": 28.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.01,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 46.16,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Vicenza Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Vicenza Sub-19\u0027s win probability at 46.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Vicenza Sub-19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vicenza Sub-19 1.32 xG vs Pro Vercelli Sub-19 1.28 \u2192 Vicenza Sub-19 36.1%",
"Market: Vicenza Sub-19 ~46.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Vicenza Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vicenza Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.05,
"hero_label": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Vicenza Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Vicenza Sub-19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Vicenza Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Vicenza Sub-19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Vicenza Sub-19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Vicenza Sub-19 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Vicenza Sub-19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Vicenza Sub-19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.05,
"edge_pp": -10.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 46.16,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.93,
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.72,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.11,
"edge_pp": 6.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pro Vercelli Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Vicenza Sub-19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Vicenza Sub-19 (46.2%).",
"Vicenza Sub-19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pro-vercelli-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pro Vercelli Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 24358,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24358.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pro Vercelli Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "4byEubetC6fiyS",
"away_team_slug": "pro-vercelli-u19",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1623580,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
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"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Vicenza Sub-19",
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"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15687.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "0mHMJhyCHsCLwS",
"home_team_slug": "vicenza-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vicenza-u19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Campionato Primavera - 2",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato Primavera - 2",
"league_public_id": "4gDZbIeLwBb0Ny",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5Di52CqQ3Grqhu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2725,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.2813,
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},
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},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2822,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
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},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0513,
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"away": 0.2813,
"draw": 0.2572,
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},
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}
},
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"away": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": 0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
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},
"draw": {
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"edge": 0.011,
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},
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"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1519,
"ev": -0.2962,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
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}
},
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"best_no_odd": 2.22,
"best_yes_odd": 1.56,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0401,
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0101,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0768,
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"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0974,
"implied_no": 0.4149,
"implied_yes": 0.5851,
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"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0768,
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"model_prob": 0.455,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"best_odd": 1.56,
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}
},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2203,
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"best_over_odd": 1.67,
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"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0758,
"edge_under": 0.0758,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1105,
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"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5578,
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"implied_under": 0.4422,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4447,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
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"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
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}
},
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"reliability": "medium"
}
},
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"total_xg": 2.6,
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},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
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"confidence": 6.0,
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
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},
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"breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
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},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
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"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vicenza Sub-19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
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"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vicenza Sub-19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vicenza Sub-19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vicenza Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
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"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
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],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Market aligns with model",
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],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
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"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
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"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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"tier": "monitor",
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"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
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"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
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},
"version": "v2.5",
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"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
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"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
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"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
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"p_final": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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"edge": 0.0147,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0758,
"ev": 0.1137,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623580,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
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"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
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"stake_mult": 1.0,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2967,
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pro Vercelli Sub-19",
"home": "Vicenza Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1999,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4616,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623580,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:00.863952+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Campionato Primavera - 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia Sub-19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro Sub-19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino Sub-19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia Sub-19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro Sub-19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena Sub-19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento Sub-19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella Sub-19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria Sub-19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia Sub-19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza Sub-19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova Sub-19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia Sub-19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli Sub-19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara Sub-19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia Sub-19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina Sub-19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa Sub-19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli Sub-19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese Sub-19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova Sub-19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli Sub-19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone Sub-19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana Sub-19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli Sub-19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
