AI correctly predicted the Ararat-Armenia win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Ararat-Armenia win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 27, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ararat-Armenia 1.32 — Universitatea Craiova 1.28
-
Aug 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ararat-Armenia win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ararat-Armenia win · Ararat-Armenia 1–0 Universitatea Craiova
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Universitatea Craiova",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
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},
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": 0.1474,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
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"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ararat-Armenia or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ararat-Armenia or Universitatea Craiova",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Universitatea Craiova",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ararat-Armenia or Universitatea Craiova",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ararat-Armenia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 60.6,
"implied_prob": 22.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ararat-Armenia Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.45
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Universitatea Craiova",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 50.54,
"draw": 28.11,
"home": 21.35
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-27 15:59:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-27 15:29:52",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.35,
"gap_pp": 14.74,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.11,
"gap_pp": 1.56,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.54,
"gap_pp": -16.3,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.31,
"gap_pp": 2.89,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.69,
"gap_pp": -2.89,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.38,
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{
"closing": 1.88,
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},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.31,
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{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.69,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0523,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0523,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ararat-Armenia",
"sort_key": 10197.07,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
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"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"alert_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.3,
"hero_label": "Universitatea Craiova",
"market_prob_pct": 21.4,
"market_team": "Universitatea Craiova",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ararat-Armenia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ararat-Armenia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ararat-Armenia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ararat-Armenia \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.45 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1623443 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.45 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.3,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"steam_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ararat-Armenia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ararat-Armenia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ararat-Armenia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ararat-Armenia \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.45 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1623443 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.45 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ararat-Armenia 1.32 xG vs Universitatea Craiova 1.28 \u2192 Ararat-Armenia 36.1%",
"Market: Universitatea Craiova ~21.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Ararat-Armenia \u2193 -14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ararat-Armenia, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.76,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Ararat-Armenia",
"market_prob": 21.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.54,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.3,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Universitatea Craiova",
"market_prob": 50.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Universitatea Craiova",
"market_prob_pct": 50.54,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ararat-Armenia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Universitatea Craiova\u0027s win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ararat-Armenia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Ararat-Armenia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ararat-Armenia 1.32 xG vs Universitatea Craiova 1.28 \u2192 Ararat-Armenia 36.1%",
"Market: Universitatea Craiova ~21.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Ararat-Armenia \u2193 -14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ararat-Armenia, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.3,
"hero_label": "Universitatea Craiova",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ararat-Armenia odds shortened \u2193 -14.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Ararat-Armenia, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Universitatea Craiova than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Ararat-Armenia \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Universitatea Craiova than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Ararat-Armenia, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"Buying interest on Ararat-Armenia \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Universitatea Craiova more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Ararat-Armenia has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.5%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Universitatea Craiova",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Universitatea Craiova higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.76,
"edge_pp": 14.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ararat-Armenia",
"market_prob_pct": 21.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.54,
"edge_pp": 1.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.3,
"edge_pp": -16.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Universitatea Craiova",
"market_prob_pct": 50.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Ararat-Armenia \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Universitatea Craiova (21.4%).",
"However, Ararat-Armenia has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.5%, 7/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ararat-Armenia, Market \u2192 Universitatea Craiova, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ararat-Armenia.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 101h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Ararat-Armenia (14.5%, 7/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.45",
"3.85",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.95 \u2192 3.11 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 101h 55m",
"pick_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
4.45,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ararat-Armenia \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ararat-Armenia \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Ararat-Armenia",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Ararat-Armenia",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Universitatea Craiova",
"away_team_id": 632,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/632.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universitatea Craiova",
"away_team_public_id": "0QOHeDxs9apn0W",
"away_team_slug": "universitatea-craiova",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1623443,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Armenia",
"home_team_display_name": "Ararat-Armenia",
"home_team_id": 3683,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3683.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ararat-Armenia",
"home_team_public_id": "449d1AKnVBJIne",
"home_team_slug": "ararat-armenia",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Europa de la UEFA",
"league_id": 3,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/3.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Europa de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "0c2w5NuZLjyjGt",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-27 16:00:00",
"public_id": "603yYpat46GVXw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Yerevan",
"venue_name": "Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4533,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0739,
"ev": -0.1888,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5054,
"draw": 0.2811,
"home": 0.2135
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4315
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.293,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.2811,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5054,
"draw": 0.2811,
"home": 0.2135
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2857
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 4.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": 0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5054,
"draw": 0.2811,
"home": 0.2135
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2365
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.1895,
"ev": -0.3563,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.38,
"edge": 0.0008,
"ev": 0.0028,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.45,
"edge": 0.1362,
"ev": 0.6062,
"implied_prob": 0.2247,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0523,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6062,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ararat-Armenia at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ararat-Armenia as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ararat-Armenia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ararat-Armenia \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.45 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1623443 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.45 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ararat-Armenia), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": 0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ararat-Armenia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623443,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0523,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universitatea Craiova",
"home": "Ararat-Armenia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020763,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ararat-Armenia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0523,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.45,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2135,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2247191011235955,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623443,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-27T15:59:49.621964+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Europa de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI Creta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburgo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | RC Celta de Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | NK Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | Olympique de Marsella | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praga | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI Creta | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiacos | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburgo | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Celtic FC | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Olympique de Marsella | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | RC Celta de Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | NK Celje | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 7.2 | 1.5 | +5.7 | 3 |
| 2 | AC Milan | 1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | +3.3 | 0 |
| 3 | Sunderland | 1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | +3.1 | 3 |
| 4 | Rennes | 1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | +2.6 | 1 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 1 | 2.9 | 0.4 | +2.5 | 3 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | +2.3 | 3 |
| 7 | Olympiacos | 1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | +1.8 | 3 |
| 8 | Benfica | 1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | +1.6 | 3 |
| 9 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 10 | Sparta Praga | 1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | +0.9 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | +0.9 | 0 |
| 12 | Juventus | 1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 13 | Lyon | 1 | 3.4 | 3.0 | +0.4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | +0.4 | 3 |
| 15 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | +0.3 | 3 |
| 16 | Olympique de Marsella | 1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | +0.3 | 0 |
| 17 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | +0.2 | 0 |
| 18 | RC Celta de Vigo | 1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | +0.2 | 0 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | 1 |
| 20 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| 21 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| 23 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 3 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 1.3 | 2.2 | -0.9 | 0 |
| 25 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 26 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | -1.2 | 0 |
| 27 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 1.9 | 3.1 | -1.2 | 1 |
| 28 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | -1.4 | 0 |
| 29 | OFI Creta | 1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | -1.6 | 3 |
| 30 | Torreense | 1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | -1.7 | 3 |
| 31 | Celtic FC | 1 | 1.4 | 3.2 | -1.8 | 0 |
| 32 | NK Celje | 1 | 1.9 | 4.0 | -2.1 | 0 |
| 33 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 1.1 | 3.4 | -2.3 | 0 |
| 34 | Red Bull Salzburgo | 1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | -2.9 | 3 |
| 35 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 1.1 | 4.7 | -3.6 | 1 |
| 36 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0.6 | 5.2 | -4.6 | 0 |
