The model missed the final outcome (Real Potosí win 0–1).
The model had projected Nacional Potosí at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Nacional Potosí Real Potosí ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 39.5% | 46.9% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.8% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Real Potosí | 31.0% | 28.3% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Nacional Potosí's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Real Potosí win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Nacional Potosí. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Nacional Potosí; match finished Real Potosí
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Nacional Potosí by 7.4 percentage points (46.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nacional Potosí 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Real Potosí 31.0%
- xG · Nacional Potosí 1.39 — Real Potosí 1.21
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nacional Potosí 1.82 · Draw 3.44 · Real Potosí 3.01
- Implied 1X2 · Nacional Potosí 46.9% · Draw 24.8% · Real Potosí 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nacional Potosí 1.82 · Draw 3.44 · Real Potosí 3.01
- Implied 1X2 · Nacional Potosí 46.9% · Draw 24.8% · Real Potosí 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Potosí win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Real Potosí win · Nacional Potosí 0–1 Real Potosí
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2186,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.1021,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"sort_key": 1774.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.41,
"hero_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"market_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nacional Potos\u00ed at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nacional Potos\u00ed as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.41,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nacional Potos\u00ed at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nacional Potos\u00ed as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nacional Potos\u00ed 1.39 xG vs Real Potos\u00ed 1.21 \u2192 Nacional Potos\u00ed 39.5%",
"Market: Nacional Potos\u00ed ~46.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Nacional Potos\u00ed odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.41,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"market_prob": 46.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.71,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.69,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Real Potos\u00ed",
"market_prob": 28.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.93,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.93,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.45,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.45,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 46.87,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Nacional Potos\u00ed\u0027s win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nacional Potos\u00ed 1.39 xG vs Real Potos\u00ed 1.21 \u2192 Nacional Potos\u00ed 39.5%",
"Market: Nacional Potos\u00ed ~46.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Nacional Potos\u00ed odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.41,
"hero_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Nacional Potos\u00ed odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Nacional Potos\u00ed. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Nacional Potos\u00ed. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nacional Potos\u00ed."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Nacional Potos\u00ed above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Nacional Potos\u00ed (\u2191 +10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Nacional Potos\u00ed."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Nacional Potos\u00ed higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.41,
"edge_pp": -7.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 46.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.71,
"edge_pp": 4.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.69,
"edge_pp": 2.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Potos\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 28.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nacional Potos\u00ed (46.9%).",
"However, Nacional Potos\u00ed has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.0%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nacional Potos\u00ed, Market \u2192 Nacional Potos\u00ed, while Nacional Potos\u00ed odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.95,
"closing_odds": 1.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.95,
"entry_odds": 1.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 25m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Nacional Potos\u00ed (10.0%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.20",
"2.01",
"1.82"
],
"display": "2.27 \u2192 1.93 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h 25m",
"pick_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.27"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
1.82,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.5 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.82"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-potosi",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Potos\u00ed",
"away_team_id": 3708,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3708.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Potos\u00ed",
"away_team_public_id": "2KMWdAL4lRGHIl",
"away_team_slug": "real-potosi",
"country_code": "BO",
"country_display_name": "Bolivia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
"country_id": 21,
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"fixture_id": 1619661,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bolivia",
"home_team_display_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"home_team_id": 3706,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3706.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"home_team_public_id": "25pHiT9RoKGCVX",
"home_team_slug": "nacional-potosi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nacional-potosi",
"league_country": "Bolivia",
"league_country_display": "Bolivia",
"league_display_name": "Copa de la Divisi\u00f3n Profesional",
"league_id": 964,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/964.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de la Divisi\u00f3n Profesional",
"league_public_id": "3ykp7Knsm23Hx9",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 23:00:00",
"public_id": "4munZHEVyudexl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2879,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.2834,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2834,
"draw": 0.248,
"home": 0.4687
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2911
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2789,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.1021,
"implied_prob": 0.248,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2834,
"draw": 0.248,
"home": 0.4687
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.261
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5336,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0393,
"ev": -0.2186,
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2834,
"draw": 0.248,
"home": 0.4687
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4293
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": 0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.1545,
"ev": -0.2812,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.166,
"alpha_yes": 0.2283,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0545,
"edge_yes": -0.0545,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0968,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1082,
"implied_no": 0.4025,
"implied_yes": 0.5975,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4139
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5829
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4139,
"p_final_yes": 0.5829,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2228,
"alpha_under": 0.2026,
"best_over_odd": 1.69,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.655,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0693,
"edge_under": 0.0693,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1854,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1168,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0653,
"implied_over": 0.5513,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5484,
"implied_under": 0.4487,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4516,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5336
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2026,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.465
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5336,
"p_final_under": 0.465,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nacional Potos\u00ed at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nacional Potos\u00ed as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nacional Potos\u00ed",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Nacional Potos\u00ed, but the model still strongly favours Nacional Potos\u00ed.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0393,
"ev": -0.2186,
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Nacional Potos\u00ed"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0086,
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4139
},
"p_final": 0.4139,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5829
}
},
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.0968,
"implied_prob": 0.4025,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2026,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0135,
"market_prob": 0.4516,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5484,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5336
},
"p_final": 0.465,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0653,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2026,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.465
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0693,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619661,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Potos\u00ed",
"home": "Nacional Potos\u00ed"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2186,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619661,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T22:59:06.654906+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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