AI correctly predicted the West Ham United Sub-21 win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 West Ham United Sub-21 West Ham United Sub-21 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Town | 31.0% | 42.8% | -11.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.0% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| West Ham United Sub-21 | 39.5% | 33.3% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Aldershot Town's win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (West Ham United Sub-21 win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Aldershot Town than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced West Ham United Sub-21 higher (51.2% vs model 39.5%, 11.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (West Ham United Sub-21 win 0–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aldershot Town 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · West Ham United Sub-21 39.5%
- xG · Aldershot Town 1.21 — West Ham United Sub-21 1.39
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aldershot Town 2.17 · Draw 3.87 · West Ham United Sub-21 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Aldershot Town 42.8% · Draw 24.0% · West Ham United Sub-21 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aldershot Town 2.17 · Draw 3.87 · West Ham United Sub-21 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Aldershot Town 42.8% · Draw 24.0% · West Ham United Sub-21 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result West Ham United Sub-21 win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
14/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
West Ham United Sub-21 win · Aldershot Town 0–3 West Ham United Sub-21
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"ev": -0.0011,
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.7,
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"hero_edge_pp": -11.73,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates West Ham United Sub-21 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies West Ham United Sub-21 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0011,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates West Ham United Sub-21 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies West Ham United Sub-21 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0011,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Aldershot Town 1.21 xG vs West Ham United Sub-21 1.39 \u2192 West Ham United Sub-21 39.5%",
"Market: Aldershot Town ~33.3% implied",
"Market Drift: West Ham United Sub-21 odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours West Ham United Sub-21, but the market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Aldershot Town",
"market_prob": 42.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.2,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"market_prob": 33.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.47,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.47,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.21,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.21,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Aldershot Town",
"market_prob_pct": 42.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "West Ham United Sub-21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Aldershot Town\u0027s win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Aldershot Town 1.21 xG vs West Ham United Sub-21 1.39 \u2192 West Ham United Sub-21 39.5%",
"Market: Aldershot Town ~33.3% implied",
"Market Drift: West Ham United Sub-21 odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours West Ham United Sub-21, but the market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.73,
"hero_label": "Aldershot Town",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "West Ham United Sub-21 odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, West Ham United Sub-21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Aldershot Town than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from West Ham United Sub-21 \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Aldershot Town than the current fair estimate.",
"However, West Ham United Sub-21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from West Ham United Sub-21 \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Aldershot Town more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, West Ham United Sub-21 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Aldershot Town",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Aldershot Town higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.73,
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Aldershot Town",
"market_prob_pct": 42.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.53,
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.98,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.2,
"edge_pp": 6.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 33.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from West Ham United Sub-21 \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Aldershot Town (33.3%).",
"However, West Ham United Sub-21 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 4/12) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 West Ham United Sub-21, Market \u2192 Aldershot Town, while West Ham United Sub-21 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.08,
"closing_odds": 2.17,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.08,
"entry_odds": 2.17,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "4/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on West Ham United Sub-21 (20.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.79",
"2.52",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 1m",
"pick_team": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.79,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: West Ham United Sub-21 odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: West Ham United Sub-21 odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from West Ham United Sub-21 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/12",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "west-ham-united-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"away_team_id": 7203,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7203.webp",
"away_team_name": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"away_team_public_id": "1hDzftXNGJyIBz",
"away_team_slug": "west-ham-united-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1619493,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Aldershot Town",
"home_team_id": 1818,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1818.webp",
"home_team_name": "Aldershot Town",
"home_team_public_id": "4F18mfRbqW4unR",
"home_team_slug": "aldershot-town",
"ht.home_team_slug": "aldershot-town",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Copa de la National League",
"league_id": 1156,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1156.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de la National League",
"league_public_id": "4LbRjJz7HawVUW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 18:30:00",
"public_id": "5ehk0yjQSN3woN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Aldershot",
"venue_name": "EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4079,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3326,
"draw": 0.2398,
"home": 0.4276
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.358
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3326,
"draw": 0.2398,
"home": 0.4276
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2549
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3708,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0435,
"ev": -0.1665,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3326,
"draw": 0.2398,
"home": 0.4276
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3841
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0365,
"ev": 0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0364,
"ev": 0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": -0.1505,
"ev": -0.3266,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1444,
"alpha_yes": 0.1986,
"best_no_odd": 3.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1321,
"edge_yes": -0.1321,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.371,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0359,
"ev_yes": -0.2507,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"implied_no": 0.3249,
"implied_yes": 0.6751,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1444,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3443
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1986,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6747,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6485
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3443,
"p_final_yes": 0.6485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.19,
"alpha_under": 0.1382,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.37,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.675,
"edge_over": -0.1747,
"edge_under": 0.1747,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1407,
"ev_under": 0.4918,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0277,
"implied_over": 0.6567,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6613,
"implied_under": 0.3433,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3387,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.6613,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6272
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"best_odd": 2.675,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0277,
"implied_prob": 0.3387,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3635
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6272,
"p_final_under": 0.3635,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates West Ham United Sub-21 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies West Ham United Sub-21 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from West Ham United Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours West Ham United Sub-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0011,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "West Ham United Sub-21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1444,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.019,
"market_prob": 0.3253,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1444,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.3253,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3443
},
"p_final": 0.3443,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1986,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6747,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6485
}
},
"edge": 0.1321,
"ev": 0.371,
"implied_prob": 0.3249,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.675,
"edge": 0.0248,
"market_prob": 0.3387,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.6613,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6272
},
"p_final": 0.3635,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0277,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1382,
"best_odd": 2.675,
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0277,
"implied_prob": 0.3387,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3635
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1747,
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619493,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4918,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.371,
"implied_prob": 0.3249,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.371,
"implied_prob": 0.3249,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "West Ham United Sub-21",
"home": "Aldershot Town"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.178327,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0011,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3326,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1018,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+10.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619493,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T18:29:06.215663+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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