The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Peterborough United Sub-21 at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Peterborough United Sub-21 Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough United Sub-21 | 37.1% | 43.0% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.9% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Bristol City Sub-21 | 33.3% | 34.1% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.9%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Peterborough United Sub-21 by 6.7 percentage points (30.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Peterborough United Sub-21 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Bristol City Sub-21 33.4%
- xG · Peterborough United Sub-21 1.34 — Bristol City Sub-21 1.26
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Peterborough United Sub-21 2.13 · Draw 4.00 · Bristol City Sub-21 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Peterborough United Sub-21 43.0% · Draw 22.9% · Bristol City Sub-21 34.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Peterborough United Sub-21 2.13 · Draw 4.00 · Bristol City Sub-21 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Peterborough United Sub-21 43.0% · Draw 22.9% · Bristol City Sub-21 34.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
66/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Peterborough United Sub-21 3–3 Bristol City Sub-21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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"over_under": {
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{
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.6,
"text": "-13.6%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
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"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"sort_key": 1791.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"alert_team": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.72,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"market_team": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Peterborough United Sub-21 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Peterborough United Sub-21 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.72,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.72,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"steam_team": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Peterborough United Sub-21 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Peterborough United Sub-21 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Peterborough United Sub-21 1.34 xG vs Bristol City Sub-21 1.26 \u2192 Peterborough United Sub-21 37.1%",
"Market: Peterborough United Sub-21 ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Bristol City Sub-21 \u2193 -12.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Peterborough United Sub-21, but sharp money moved toward Bristol City Sub-21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.96,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"market_prob": 43.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.76,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"market_prob": 34.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 75.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 24.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 74.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 25.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.91,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Bristol City Sub-21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.9%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.72,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Peterborough United Sub-21 1.34 xG vs Bristol City Sub-21 1.26 \u2192 Peterborough United Sub-21 37.1%",
"Market: Peterborough United Sub-21 ~43.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Bristol City Sub-21 \u2193 -12.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Peterborough United Sub-21, but sharp money moved toward Bristol City Sub-21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.72,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Bristol City Sub-21 odds shortened \u2193 -12.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Bristol City Sub-21, with odds shortening by 12.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on Bristol City Sub-21 \u2014 odds shortened by 12.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Bristol City Sub-21, with odds shortening by 12.7%.",
"Buying interest on Bristol City Sub-21 \u2014 odds shortened by 12.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Bristol City Sub-21 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Bristol City Sub-21."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.72,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.7,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.96,
"edge_pp": -5.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 43.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.72,
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.76,
"edge_pp": -0.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 34.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Bristol City Sub-21 \u2014 odds shortened by 12.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Peterborough United Sub-21 (43.0%).",
"However, Bristol City Sub-21 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.7%, 6/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Peterborough United Sub-21, Market \u2192 Peterborough United Sub-21, Recent sharp money \u2192 Bristol City Sub-21.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.0,
"closing_odds": 4.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.0,
"entry_odds": 4.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Bristol City Sub-21 (12.7%, 6/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.81",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 44m",
"pick_team": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.69,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Bristol City Sub-21 \u2193 -12.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Bristol City Sub-21 \u2193 -12.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Bristol City Sub-21 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bristol-city-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"away_team_id": 20080,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20080.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"away_team_public_id": "0yG0KZOSajBdvP",
"away_team_slug": "bristol-city-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1619138,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"home_team_id": 20018,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20018.webp",
"home_team_name": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"home_team_public_id": "0e8VseUsescJ5V",
"home_team_slug": "peterborough-united-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "peterborough-united-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Desarrollo Profesional",
"league_id": 703,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/703.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Desarrollo Profesional",
"league_public_id": "3ndHGQfm7HNJhM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 12:00:00",
"public_id": "32Vvd1grZMhqo8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4451,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3407,
"draw": 0.2291,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1799,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.2291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3407,
"draw": 0.2291,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2411
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4097,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3407,
"draw": 0.2291,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4058
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.0383,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.046,
"ev": 0.184,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.099,
"ev": -0.2108,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.174,
"best_no_odd": 4.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.29,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1993,
"edge_yes": -0.1993,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.82,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0299,
"ev_yes": -0.2969,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1285,
"implied_no": 0.2557,
"implied_yes": 0.7443,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.555,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.174,
"best_odd": 1.23,
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.7429,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7085
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2729,
"p_final_yes": 0.7085,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1487,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.625,
"edge_over": -0.269,
"edge_under": 0.269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1355,
"ev_under": 1.072,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.01,
"implied_over": 0.751,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7482,
"implied_under": 0.249,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2518,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0396,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.7482,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7086
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.625,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.2518,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2731
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7086,
"p_final_under": 0.2731,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.072,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.072,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.072,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Peterborough United Sub-21 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Peterborough United Sub-21 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Peterborough United Sub-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bristol City Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Peterborough United Sub-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Peterborough United Sub-21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.555,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.2571,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.555,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"p_final": 0.2729,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0299,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.174,
"best_odd": 1.23,
"edge": -0.0344,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.7429,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7085
}
},
"edge": 0.1993,
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2557,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.625,
"edge": 0.0213,
"market_prob": 0.2518,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0396,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.7482,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7086
},
"p_final": 0.2731,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.01,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.625,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.2518,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2731
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.269,
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.249,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619138,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.072,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2557,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2557,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bristol City Sub-21",
"home": "Peterborough United Sub-21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.388707,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.249,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619138,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T11:59:16.871163+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Desarrollo Profesional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City Sub-21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City Sub-21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town Sub-21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City Sub-21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United Sub-21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley Sub-21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United Sub-21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday Sub-21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town Sub-21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic Sub-21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic Sub-21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United Sub-21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City Sub-21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers Sub-21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City Sub-21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall Sub-21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic Sub-21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City Sub-21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City Sub-21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United Sub-21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City Sub-21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley Sub-21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers Sub-21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic Sub-21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City Sub-21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday Sub-21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United Sub-21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town Sub-21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United Sub-21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town Sub-21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City Sub-21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall Sub-21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
