AI correctly predicted the Villarrobledo win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Villarrobledo Villarrobledo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Villarrobledo win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · La Solana 1.22 — Villarrobledo 1.38
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Villarrobledo win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Villarrobledo win · La Solana 0–1 Villarrobledo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0866,
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"raw_pct": -8.7,
"text": "-8.7%"
},
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"text": "-7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0764,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Villarrobledo",
"sort_key": 1780.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"alert_team": "Villarrobledo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.68,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"market_team": "Villarrobledo",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Villarrobledo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarrobledo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarrobledo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarrobledo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +18.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42194092827004215,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0764,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.68,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"steam_team": "Villarrobledo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarrobledo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarrobledo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarrobledo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +18.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42194092827004215,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0764,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: La Solana 1.22 xG vs Villarrobledo 1.38 \u2192 Villarrobledo 39.0%",
"Market: Villarrobledo ~38.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Villarrobledo odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Villarrobledo, but the market has moved away from Villarrobledo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "La Solana",
"market_prob": 29.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.68,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Villarrobledo",
"market_prob": 38.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.51,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.51,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.22,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Villarrobledo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Villarrobledo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: La Solana 1.22 xG vs Villarrobledo 1.38 \u2192 Villarrobledo 39.0%",
"Market: Villarrobledo ~38.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Villarrobledo odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Villarrobledo, but the market has moved away from Villarrobledo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.68,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Villarrobledo odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Villarrobledo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Villarrobledo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Villarrobledo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.9,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "La Solana",
"market_prob_pct": 29.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.68,
"edge_pp": -2.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.77,
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villarrobledo",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Villarrobledo (38.2%).",
"Villarrobledo odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.5%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Villarrobledo, Market \u2192 Villarrobledo, while Villarrobledo odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.59,
"closing_odds": 2.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.59,
"entry_odds": 2.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Villarrobledo (swing 2.37 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.30) \u2014 net 4.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.37",
"2.29",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.37 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 4m",
"pick_team": "Villarrobledo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.37"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.37,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.37"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Villarrobledo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Villarrobledo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Villarrobledo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Villarrobledo",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_team_name": "Villarrobledo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "villarrobledo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Villarrobledo",
"away_team_id": 9602,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9602.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villarrobledo",
"away_team_public_id": "2Hf5oQT2MZWJUC",
"away_team_slug": "villarrobledo",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1617943,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "La Solana",
"home_team_id": 9903,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9903.webp",
"home_team_name": "La Solana",
"home_team_public_id": "1i0RIO3MMy7aCw",
"home_team_slug": "la-solana",
"ht.home_team_slug": "la-solana",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Grupo 18",
"league_id": 456,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/456.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Grupo 18",
"league_public_id": "0ss7rLMJV0xoXa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 17:00:00",
"public_id": "5uWlnzxYCyKeHQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4448,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.382,
"draw": 0.3222,
"home": 0.2958
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3854
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4319,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.3222,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.382,
"draw": 0.3222,
"home": 0.2958
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3106
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2914,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.2958,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.382,
"draw": 0.3222,
"home": 0.2958
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3014
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.4219,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2148,
"alpha_yes": 0.1953,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.01,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0851,
"edge_yes": 0.0851,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1177,
"ev_yes": 0.0934,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0514,
"implied_no": 0.5411,
"implied_yes": 0.4589,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5252
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4731
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5252,
"p_final_yes": 0.4731,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1543,
"alpha_under": 0.2121,
"best_over_odd": 2.46,
"best_under_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.355,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.485,
"edge_over": 0.0929,
"edge_under": -0.0929,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1857,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"ev_under": -0.1764,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1193,
"implied_over": 0.3891,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3867,
"implied_under": 0.6109,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6133,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1543,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.3867,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4014
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2121,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.6133,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5931
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4014,
"p_final_under": 0.5931,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1857,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1857,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarrobledo at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarrobledo as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarrobledo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +18.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Villarrobledo, but the model still strongly favours Villarrobledo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42194092827004215,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0764,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Villarrobledo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4559,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5252
},
"p_final": 0.4731,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0514,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 2.005,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4559,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0851,
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.4589,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1543,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.3867,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.3867,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4014
},
"p_final": 0.4014,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.6133,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5931
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0929,
"ev": 0.1857,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1617943,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1857,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.4589,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.4589,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villarrobledo",
"home": "La Solana"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.062655,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1857,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42194092827004215,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0764,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1617943,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T16:59:42.806485+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera División RFEF - Grupo 18 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Villarrobledo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Illescas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Toledo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Torrijos | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Marchamalo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Almansa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Tarancón | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Noblejas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | CD Villa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Socuéllamos | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | La Solana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Quintanar del Rey | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | Guadalajara B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toledo | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Villarrobledo | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Almansa | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 6 | Manchego | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Illescas | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Noblejas | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Torrijos | 4 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 11 | Quintanar del Rey | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | CD Villa | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | La Solana | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Guadalajara B | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 | Socuéllamos | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
