The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Bidezarra at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Bidezarra Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Txantrea | 34.7% | 50.5% | -15.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.4% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Bidezarra | 35.6% | 21.1% | +14.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Txantrea's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 15.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Txantrea than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Bidezarra; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bidezarra by 15.8 percentage points (51.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Txantrea 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Bidezarra 35.6%
- xG · Txantrea 1.29 — Bidezarra 1.31
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Txantrea 1.79 · Draw 3.18 · Bidezarra 4.29
- Implied 1X2 · Txantrea 50.5% · Draw 28.4% · Bidezarra 21.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Txantrea 1.79 · Draw 3.18 · Bidezarra 4.29
- Implied 1X2 · Txantrea 50.5% · Draw 28.4% · Bidezarra 21.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
7/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Txantrea 2–2 Bidezarra
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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"decision_chain": {
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},
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
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{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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},
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],
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"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bidezarra \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1617019 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0014,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.8,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Txantrea",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5269,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bidezarra at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bidezarra as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bidezarra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bidezarra \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1617019 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0014,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Txantrea 1.29 xG vs Bidezarra 1.31 \u2192 Bidezarra 35.6%",
"Market: Txantrea ~21.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Txantrea +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Bidezarra, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.8,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Txantrea",
"market_prob": 50.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.22,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.57,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Bidezarra",
"market_prob": 21.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.55,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.55,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Txantrea",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Txantrea"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Txantrea\u0027s win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 15.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bidezarra",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Txantrea 1.29 xG vs Bidezarra 1.31 \u2192 Bidezarra 35.6%",
"Market: Txantrea ~21.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Txantrea +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Bidezarra, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.8,
"hero_label": "Txantrea",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Txantrea than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Txantrea than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Txantrea than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Txantrea more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Txantrea (pricing gap 15.8 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Txantrea",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Txantrea higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.8,
"edge_pp": -15.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Txantrea",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.22,
"edge_pp": 1.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.43,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.57,
"edge_pp": 14.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bidezarra",
"market_prob_pct": 21.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Txantrea than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Txantrea (21.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bidezarra, Market \u2192 Txantrea, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.87,
"closing_odds": 1.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.87,
"entry_odds": 1.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Txantrea",
"steam_score": 6,
"steam_team_name": "Txantrea",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bidezarra",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bidezarra",
"away_team_id": 15320,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15320.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bidezarra",
"away_team_public_id": "23D02eSpTczvVP",
"away_team_slug": "bidezarra",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1617019,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Txantrea",
"home_team_id": 9857,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9857.webp",
"home_team_name": "Txantrea",
"home_team_public_id": "1awxREvcEZwZaL",
"home_team_slug": "txantrea",
"ht.home_team_slug": "txantrea",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 15",
"league_id": 453,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/453.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 15",
"league_public_id": "39b28ovmj2xg0y",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:00:00",
"public_id": "4YvZxFcSDsgNZo",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1564,
"best_odd": 4.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0014,
"implied_prob": 0.2107,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2107,
"draw": 0.2843,
"home": 0.505
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2334
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2944,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.2843,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2107,
"draw": 0.2843,
"home": 0.505
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.458,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0722,
"ev": -0.2253,
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2107,
"draw": 0.2843,
"home": 0.505
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4328
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.29,
"edge": 0.1228,
"ev": 0.5269,
"implied_prob": 0.2331,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.0562,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.2114,
"ev": -0.3784,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2267,
"alpha_yes": 0.2061,
"best_no_odd": 1.81,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0555,
"edge_yes": 0.0555,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1764,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.113,
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.069,
"implied_no": 0.5105,
"implied_yes": 0.4895,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2267,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.113,
"implied_prob": 0.511,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4983
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2061,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.069,
"implied_prob": 0.489,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5006
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4983,
"p_final_yes": 0.5006,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2103,
"alpha_under": 0.2314,
"best_over_odd": 2.14,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0403,
"edge_under": -0.0403,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0315,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0599,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_over": 0.4417,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4385,
"implied_under": 0.5583,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5615,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4477,
"p_final_under": 0.5514,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5269,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0315,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5269,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bidezarra at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bidezarra as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bidezarra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bidezarra \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.40 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1617019 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.40 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Txantrea, but the model still strongly favours Bidezarra.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0014,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0315,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0014,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bidezarra"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0115,
"market_prob": 0.489,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.5006,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.069,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0091,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"p_final": 0.4477
},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
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},
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1617019,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0315,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bidezarra",
"home": "Txantrea"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0014,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5268,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1617019,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:01:38.828693+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera Federación - Grupo 15 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Gazte Berriak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Beti Kozkor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Aoiz | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Doneztebe FT | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Avance Ezcabarte | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Txantrea | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Subiza | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | San Juan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Beti Onak | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Cortes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Huarte | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Pamplona | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Cantolagua | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Valle Egüés | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Cirbonero | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Bidezarra | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 4 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 12 |
| 2 | Doneztebe FT | 4 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Subiza | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | San Juan | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 6 | Gazte Berriak | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Valle Egüés | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Beti Onak | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Huarte | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Mutilvera | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 13 | Beti Kozkor | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamplona | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Cortes | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Cantolagua | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Cirbonero | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
