The model missed the final outcome (Unión Molinense win 3–2).
The model had projected Mazarrón FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Mazarrón FC Unión Molinense ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Molinense | 34.2% | 36.5% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 37.1% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Mazarrón FC | 36.1% | 26.4% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Mazarrón FC's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.4%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Unión Molinense win 3–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mazarrón FC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Mazarrón FC; match finished Unión Molinense
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mazarrón FC by 9.7 percentage points (26.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Unión Molinense 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Mazarrón FC 36.1%
- xG · Unión Molinense 1.28 — Mazarrón FC 1.32
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Unión Molinense 2.48 · Draw 2.44 · Mazarrón FC 3.42
- Implied 1X2 · Unión Molinense 36.5% · Draw 37.1% · Mazarrón FC 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Unión Molinense 2.48 · Draw 2.44 · Mazarrón FC 3.42
- Implied 1X2 · Unión Molinense 36.5% · Draw 37.1% · Mazarrón FC 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Unión Molinense win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Unión Molinense win · Unión Molinense 3–2 Mazarrón FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0108,
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"raw_pct": -1.1,
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},
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},
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"sort_key": 1797.3,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"alert_team": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.7,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.2344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mazarr\u00f3n FC at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mazarr\u00f3n FC as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mazarr\u00f3n FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1616407 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2343,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.66,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"steam_team": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mazarr\u00f3n FC at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mazarr\u00f3n FC as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mazarr\u00f3n FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1616407 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2343,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uni\u00f3n Molinense 1.28 xG vs Mazarr\u00f3n FC 1.32 \u2192 Mazarr\u00f3n FC 36.1%",
"Market: Draw ~26.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Mazarr\u00f3n FC \u2193 -15.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mazarr\u00f3n FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.24,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n Molinense",
"market_prob": 36.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 37.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"market_prob": 26.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.45,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Mazarr\u00f3n FC\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.4%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uni\u00f3n Molinense 1.28 xG vs Mazarr\u00f3n FC 1.32 \u2192 Mazarr\u00f3n FC 36.1%",
"Market: Draw ~26.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Mazarr\u00f3n FC \u2193 -15.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mazarr\u00f3n FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.66,
"hero_label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC odds shortened \u2193 -15.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mazarr\u00f3n FC.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mazarr\u00f3n FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mazarr\u00f3n FC.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mazarr\u00f3n FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Mazarr\u00f3n FC.",
"Recent line movement on Mazarr\u00f3n FC (\u2193 -15.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.7,
"lead": "The model rates Mazarr\u00f3n FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.24,
"edge_pp": -2.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n Molinense",
"market_prob_pct": 36.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.42,
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.66,
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mazarr\u00f3n FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (26.4%).",
"However, Mazarr\u00f3n FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -15.2%, 3/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mazarr\u00f3n FC, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 Mazarr\u00f3n FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.24,
"closing_odds": 3.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.24,
"entry_odds": 3.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Mazarr\u00f3n FC (15.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.42",
"3.11",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.42 \u2192 2.72 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"pick_team": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.42,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.5 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mazarron-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"away_team_id": 9816,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9816.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0FWnWGwSK7ZZIV",
"away_team_slug": "mazarron-fc",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1616407,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Uni\u00f3n Molinense",
"home_team_id": 20278,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20278.webp",
"home_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n Molinense",
"home_team_public_id": "4vT8QGYvLvmIau",
"home_team_slug": "union-molinense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "union-molinense",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 13",
"league_id": 451,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/451.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 13",
"league_public_id": "3DzaAINAOwvcvI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 17:00:00",
"public_id": "50suqwLVlgnYoU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2566,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0108,
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2645,
"draw": 0.3707,
"home": 0.3648
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2892
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1677,
"implied_prob": 0.3707,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2645,
"draw": 0.3707,
"home": 0.3648
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4349,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.3648,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2645,
"draw": 0.3707,
"home": 0.3648
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.355
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.2344,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.1132,
"ev": -0.2761,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2205,
"alpha_yes": 0.2005,
"best_no_odd": 1.78,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0685,
"edge_yes": 0.0685,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1901,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1071,
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0507,
"implied_no": 0.5235,
"implied_yes": 0.4765,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5277,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5117
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2005,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.4723,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4868
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5117,
"p_final_yes": 0.4868,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1583,
"alpha_under": 0.2176,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.0796,
"edge_under": -0.0796,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0554,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1112,
"implied_over": 0.4024,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4016,
"implied_under": 0.5976,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5984,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1583,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5809
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4143,
"p_final_under": 0.5809,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2344,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mazarr\u00f3n FC at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mazarr\u00f3n FC as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Mazarr\u00f3n FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1616407 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mazarr\u00f3n FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2343,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0108,
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2005,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0146,
"market_prob": 0.4723,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1071,
"implied_prob": 0.5277,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5117
},
"p_final": 0.4868,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0507,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2005,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.4723,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4868
}
},
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4765,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1583,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1583,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"p_final": 0.4143,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5809
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0796,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1616407,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4765,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4765,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mazarr\u00f3n FC",
"home": "Uni\u00f3n Molinense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044773,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0108,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2645,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2343,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1616407,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:59:52.031839+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera Federación - Grupo 13 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | San Javier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Bullas Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Alcantarilla | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Atlético Pulpileño | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Los Garres | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Bala Azul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | UCAM Murcia II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Unión Molinense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Olímpico Totana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Águilas B | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cartagena B | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Mazarrón FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Balsicas Atlético | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Algar | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCAM Murcia II | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Santomera | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Javier | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Unión Molinense | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bullas Deportivo | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 7 | Los Garres | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Olímpico Totana | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Águilas B | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Cotillas CD | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Cartagena B | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 |
| 12 | Alcantarilla | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Bala Azul | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Mazarrón FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Atlético Pulpileño | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 16 | SFC Minerva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Balsicas Atlético | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Algar | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
