The model missed the final outcome (Estradense win 3–2).
The model had projected Boiro at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Boiro Estradense ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estradense | 34.2% | 36.8% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.8% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Boiro | 36.1% | 30.5% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Boiro's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.5%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Estradense win 3–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Boiro.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Boiro; match finished Estradense
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Boiro by 5.7 percentage points (30.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Estradense 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Boiro 36.1%
- xG · Estradense 1.28 — Boiro 1.32
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Estradense 2.46 · Draw 2.76 · Boiro 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · Estradense 36.8% · Draw 32.8% · Boiro 30.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Estradense 2.46 · Draw 2.76 · Boiro 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · Estradense 36.8% · Draw 32.8% · Boiro 30.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Estradense win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Estradense win · Estradense 3–2 Boiro
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.0265,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"alert_team": "Estradense",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
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"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boiro at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boiro as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boiro",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0719,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.65,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.65,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"steam_team": "Estradense",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boiro at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boiro as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boiro",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0719,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estradense 1.28 xG vs Boiro 1.32 \u2192 Boiro 36.1%",
"Market: Estradense ~30.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Estradense odds \u2191 +17.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Boiro with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.53,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Estradense",
"market_prob": 36.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.12,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.65,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Boiro",
"market_prob": 30.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.08,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.08,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.32,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Boiro",
"market_prob_pct": 30.46,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Estradense"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Boiro\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.5%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.65,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Boiro",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Boiro \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estradense 1.28 xG vs Boiro 1.32 \u2192 Boiro 36.1%",
"Market: Estradense ~30.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Estradense odds \u2191 +17.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Boiro with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.65,
"hero_label": "Boiro",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Estradense odds lengthened \u2191 +17.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Estradense has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Boiro.",
"note": "Drift away from Estradense \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Boiro.",
"However, Estradense has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Estradense \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Boiro.",
"At the same time, Estradense has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.65,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Boiro",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.7,
"lead": "The model rates Boiro considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.53,
"edge_pp": -2.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Estradense",
"market_prob_pct": 36.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.12,
"edge_pp": -3.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.65,
"edge_pp": 5.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Boiro",
"market_prob_pct": 30.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Estradense \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Estradense (30.5%).",
"However, Estradense has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.4%, 2/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Boiro, Market \u2192 Estradense, while Estradense odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.67,
"closing_odds": 2.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.67,
"entry_odds": 2.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Estradense (17.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.50",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.85 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Estradense",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.46,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,10.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Estradense",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Estradense",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Estradense",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Estradense",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "boiro",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Boiro",
"away_team_id": 22566,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22566.webp",
"away_team_name": "Boiro",
"away_team_public_id": "2Hy5qJ8DGgTnnb",
"away_team_slug": "boiro",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1612742,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Estradense",
"home_team_id": 9611,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9611.webp",
"home_team_name": "Estradense",
"home_team_public_id": "5Ac4gagABjMbpS",
"home_team_slug": "estradense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "estradense",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 439,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/439.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "2fRyzrmay3Uu5M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3wZYIKpwKM9zh0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4119,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.3046,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3046,
"draw": 0.3277,
"home": 0.3677
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3278
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.429,
"best_odd": 2.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1322,
"implied_prob": 0.3277,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3046,
"draw": 0.3277,
"home": 0.3677
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3144
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4329,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1224,
"implied_prob": 0.3677,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3046,
"draw": 0.3277,
"home": 0.3677
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3567
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.76,
"edge": -0.0656,
"ev": -0.1812,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": -0.0641,
"ev": -0.1577,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.228,
"alpha_yes": 0.2073,
"best_no_odd": 1.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0532,
"edge_yes": 0.0532,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1719,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1105,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0688,
"implied_no": 0.5082,
"implied_yes": 0.4918,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.228,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4956
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5033
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4956,
"p_final_yes": 0.5033,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.163,
"alpha_under": 0.2241,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.205,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0608,
"edge_under": -0.0608,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0535,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0986,
"implied_over": 0.4212,
"implied_over_mf": 0.419,
"implied_under": 0.5788,
"implied_under_mf": 0.581,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.163,
"best_odd": 2.205,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4292
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.581,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5669
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4292,
"p_final_under": 0.5669,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Boiro)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Boiro at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Boiro as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Boiro",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 5.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
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"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
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"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"total_xg": 2.6,
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0265,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Boiro"
},
"btts": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.85,
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"no": {
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"edge": -0.012,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0688,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0532,
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"implied_prob": 0.4918,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.205,
"edge": 0.0103,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0535,
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"p_final": 0.4292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.581,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0608,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612742,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Boiro",
"home": "Estradense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02851,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0719,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612742,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T16:00:45.101872+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera Federación - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Antela CF | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Sarriana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Villalbés | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Alondras CF | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Pontevedra B | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Portonovo SD | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | CD Barco | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Lalin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Silva SD | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Céltiga | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Estradense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | CD Arenteiro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Viveiro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Coruña | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Somozas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alondras CF | 5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 2 | Pontevedra B | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Boiro | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Sarriana | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Villalbés | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Coruña | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Antela CF | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | CD Barco | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Céltiga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Estradense | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Silva SD | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Lalin | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Arenteiro | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Somozas | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
