AI correctly predicted the Aston Villa Femenino win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Aston Villa Femenino Aston Villa Femenino ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa Femenino | 38.5% | 46.5% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.7% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Newcastle United Femenino | 31.9% | 31.8% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Aston Villa Femenino's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Aston Villa Femenino win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Aston Villa Femenino. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Aston Villa Femenino higher (46.6% vs model 38.5%, 8.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Aston Villa Femenino win 3–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aston Villa Femenino 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Newcastle United Femenino 31.9%
- xG · Aston Villa Femenino 1.37 — Newcastle United Femenino 1.23
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aston Villa Femenino 1.94 · Draw 4.17 · Newcastle United Femenino 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · Aston Villa Femenino 46.5% · Draw 21.7% · Newcastle United Femenino 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aston Villa Femenino 1.94 · Draw 4.17 · Newcastle United Femenino 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · Aston Villa Femenino 46.5% · Draw 21.7% · Newcastle United Femenino 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aston Villa Femenino win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
59/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Aston Villa Femenino win · Aston Villa Femenino 3–1 Newcastle United Femenino
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"tone": "ok"
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{
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},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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],
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"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
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"ok": true,
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{
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1797,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2539,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "0/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.06,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -0.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -0.5%",
"steam_team": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Aston Villa Femenino at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Aston Villa Femenino as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1797,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2539,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Aston Villa Femenino 1.37 xG vs Newcastle United Femenino 1.23 \u2192 Aston Villa Femenino 38.5%",
"Market: Aston Villa Femenino ~46.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Aston Villa Femenino \u2193 -0.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Aston Villa Femenino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.06,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"market_prob": 46.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.91,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Newcastle United Femenino",
"market_prob": 31.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.0,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.0,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 46.55,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Aston Villa Femenino"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Aston Villa Femenino\u0027s win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Aston Villa Femenino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Aston Villa Femenino 1.37 xG vs Newcastle United Femenino 1.23 \u2192 Aston Villa Femenino 38.5%",
"Market: Aston Villa Femenino ~46.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Aston Villa Femenino \u2193 -0.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Aston Villa Femenino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.06,
"hero_label": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Aston Villa Femenino odds shortened \u2193 -0.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (0/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Aston Villa Femenino. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Aston Villa Femenino. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (0/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Aston Villa Femenino above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Aston Villa Femenino (\u2193 -0.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Aston Villa Femenino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.06,
"edge_pp": -8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 46.55,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.91,
"edge_pp": 7.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.14,
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Newcastle United Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 31.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Aston Villa Femenino (46.5%).",
"Aston Villa Femenino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.55,
"closing_odds": 1.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.55,
"entry_odds": 1.94,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/9",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -0.5%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "newcastle-united-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Newcastle United Femenino",
"away_team_id": 15515,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15515.webp",
"away_team_name": "Newcastle United Femenino",
"away_team_public_id": "2GhDMNhxq4eAVY",
"away_team_slug": "newcastle-united-w",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1612644,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"home_team_id": 14219,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14219.webp",
"home_team_name": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"home_team_public_id": "5rA3P91htPqEFP",
"home_team_slug": "aston-villa-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "aston-villa-w",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Copa WSL",
"league_id": 697,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/697.webp",
"league_name": "Copa WSL",
"league_public_id": "0WhCHd2e2xQj2F",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-30 18:30:00",
"public_id": "3WHqwTwEERSP2t",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sutton Coldfield",
"venue_name": "Trevor Brown Memorial Ground"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.449,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.095,
"implied_prob": 0.318,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.318,
"draw": 0.2166,
"home": 0.4655
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3187
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1762,
"best_odd": 4.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.318,
"draw": 0.2166,
"home": 0.4655
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2305
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0426,
"ev": -0.1797,
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.318,
"draw": 0.2166,
"home": 0.4655
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4229
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.17,
"edge": 0.0561,
"ev": 0.2338,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.1308,
"ev": -0.2538,
"implied_prob": 0.5155,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1605,
"alpha_yes": 0.2207,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.07,
"edge_yes": -0.07,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0944,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0572,
"ev_yes": -0.1677,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1085,
"implied_no": 0.386,
"implied_yes": 0.614,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3953
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2207,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.6163,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6003
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3953,
"p_final_yes": 0.6003,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2046,
"alpha_under": 0.1488,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.535,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1107,
"edge_under": 0.1107,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"implied_over": 0.5927,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5976,
"implied_under": 0.4073,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4024,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.574,
"p_final_under": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Aston Villa Femenino at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Aston Villa Femenino as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Aston Villa Femenino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Aston Villa Femenino).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1797,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2539,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0426,
"ev": -0.1797,
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Aston Villa Femenino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.3837,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0572,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3953
},
"p_final": 0.3953,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0572,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2207,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.6163,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6003
}
},
"edge": 0.07,
"ev": 0.0944,
"implied_prob": 0.386,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4024,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"p_final": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1107,
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4073,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1612644,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Newcastle United Femenino",
"home": "Aston Villa Femenino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088184,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4073,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1797,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2539,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612644,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T18:29:22.853880+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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