The model missed the final outcome (Tigre Reserves win 2–1).
The model had projected Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves Tigre Reserves ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre Reserves | 29.2% | 34.1% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 34.3% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 41.4% | 31.6% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.6%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Tigre Reserves win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Gimnasia La Plata Reserves; match finished Tigre Reserves
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves by 9.8 percentage points (31.6% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tigre Reserves 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 41.4%
- xG · Tigre Reserves 1.17 — Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 1.43
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tigre Reserves 2.69 · Draw 2.67 · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Tigre Reserves 34.1% · Draw 34.3% · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tigre Reserves 2.69 · Draw 2.67 · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Tigre Reserves 34.1% · Draw 34.3% · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tigre Reserves win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tigre Reserves win · Tigre Reserves 2–1 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0253,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"alert_team": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
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"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1713,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1997,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0253,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1997,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.8,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.17,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.17 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"steam_team": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1713,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1997,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0253,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1997,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tigre Reserves 1.17 xG vs Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 1.43 \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 41.4%",
"Market: Draw ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves odds \u2191 +16.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.82,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Tigre Reserves",
"market_prob": 34.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.97,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.8,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"market_prob": 31.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.23,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.23,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.88,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.88,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves\u0027s win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 31.6%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tigre Reserves 1.17 xG vs Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 1.43 \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 41.4%",
"Market: Draw ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves odds \u2191 +16.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.8,
"hero_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves odds lengthened \u2191 +16.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Recent line movement on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves (\u2191 +16.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.8,
"lead": "The model rates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.82,
"edge_pp": -4.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tigre Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 34.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.97,
"edge_pp": -4.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.8,
"edge_pp": 9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (31.6%).",
"However, Gimnasia La Plata Reserves has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.4%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, Market \u2192 Draw, while Gimnasia La Plata Reserves odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.48,
"closing_odds": 2.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.48,
"entry_odds": 2.9,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Gimnasia La Plata Reserves together (16.4% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.90",
"2.58",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.83 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"pick_team": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.9,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves odds \u2191 +16.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves odds \u2191 +16.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gimnasia-la-plata-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"away_team_id": 18686,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18686.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"away_team_public_id": "0SNzeCr2DmqJ6W",
"away_team_slug": "gimnasia-la-plata-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612071,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Tigre Reserves",
"home_team_id": 18700,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18700.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tigre Reserves",
"home_team_public_id": "3AvgtcyT8GzP0g",
"home_team_slug": "tigre-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tigre-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5bQ1I21c8qhfYt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3841,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0375,
"ev": 0.0253,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.316,
"draw": 0.3433,
"home": 0.3407
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.3535
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4165,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.1387,
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.316,
"draw": 0.3433,
"home": 0.3407
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.3226
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4176,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.3407,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.316,
"draw": 0.3433,
"home": 0.3407
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.3207
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0689,
"ev": 0.1997,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.4137
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0809,
"ev": -0.2161,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.079,
"ev": -0.2126,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.2927
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2224,
"alpha_yes": 0.2022,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0688,
"edge_yes": 0.0688,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1968,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"ev_yes": 0.055,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.06,
"implied_no": 0.5278,
"implied_yes": 0.4722,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.5266,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5116
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4734,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4871
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5116,
"p_final_yes": 0.4871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.156,
"alpha_under": 0.2145,
"best_over_odd": 2.43,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": 0.0823,
"edge_under": -0.0823,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1713,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0515,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1125,
"implied_over": 0.3997,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3932,
"implied_under": 0.6003,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6068,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4071
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6068,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5877
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4071,
"p_final_under": 0.5877,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1713,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1997,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1713,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1713,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1997,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0253,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1997,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0375,
"ev": 0.0253,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.4734,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.5266,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5116
},
"p_final": 0.4871,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4734,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4871
}
},
"edge": 0.0688,
"ev": 0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4722,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.3932,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4071
},
"p_final": 0.4071,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0515,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.6068,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5877
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0823,
"ev": 0.1713,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612071,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1713,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4137,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2927
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4722,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4722,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"home": "Tigre Reserves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.057797,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1713,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0253,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1997,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612071,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T18:00:01.134053+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Reserva — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
