AI correctly predicted the Godoy Cruz Reserves win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Godoy Cruz Reserves Godoy Cruz Reserves ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz Reserves | 37.1% | 45.5% | -8.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.7% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Banfield Reserves | 33.3% | 29.7% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Godoy Cruz Reserves's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Godoy Cruz Reserves win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Godoy Cruz Reserves. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Godoy Cruz Reserves higher (45.6% vs model 37.1%, 8.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Godoy Cruz Reserves win 3–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Godoy Cruz Reserves 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Banfield Reserves 33.4%
- xG · Godoy Cruz Reserves 1.34 — Banfield Reserves 1.26
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Godoy Cruz Reserves 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Banfield Reserves 3.08
- Implied 1X2 · Godoy Cruz Reserves 45.5% · Draw 24.7% · Banfield Reserves 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Godoy Cruz Reserves 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Banfield Reserves 3.08
- Implied 1X2 · Godoy Cruz Reserves 45.5% · Draw 24.7% · Banfield Reserves 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Godoy Cruz Reserves win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
57/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Godoy Cruz Reserves win · Godoy Cruz Reserves 3–0 Banfield Reserves
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"alert_team": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.5,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 8.5,
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},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Godoy Cruz Reserves at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Godoy Cruz Reserves as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Godoy Cruz Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612030 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.48,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"steam_team": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz Reserves)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Godoy Cruz Reserves at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Godoy Cruz Reserves as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Godoy Cruz Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612030 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Godoy Cruz Reserves 1.34 xG vs Banfield Reserves 1.26 \u2192 Godoy Cruz Reserves 37.1%",
"Market: Godoy Cruz Reserves ~45.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Godoy Cruz Reserves \u2193 -10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Godoy Cruz Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.48,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"market_prob": 45.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.89,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Banfield Reserves",
"market_prob": 29.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 45.54,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Godoy Cruz Reserves"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Godoy Cruz Reserves\u0027s win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Godoy Cruz Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Godoy Cruz Reserves 1.34 xG vs Banfield Reserves 1.26 \u2192 Godoy Cruz Reserves 37.1%",
"Market: Godoy Cruz Reserves ~45.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Godoy Cruz Reserves \u2193 -10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Godoy Cruz Reserves with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.48,
"hero_label": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Godoy Cruz Reserves odds shortened \u2193 -10.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Godoy Cruz Reserves. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Godoy Cruz Reserves.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Godoy Cruz Reserves. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Godoy Cruz Reserves."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Godoy Cruz Reserves above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Godoy Cruz Reserves (\u2193 -10.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Godoy Cruz Reserves higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.48,
"edge_pp": -8.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 45.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.89,
"edge_pp": 4.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.59,
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Banfield Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 29.72,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Godoy Cruz Reserves.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Godoy Cruz Reserves (45.5%).",
"Godoy Cruz Reserves has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -10.2%, 3/8).",
"Godoy Cruz Reserves \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Godoy Cruz Reserves (10.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.45",
"2.23",
"2.01"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 2.18 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.18"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.01,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.2",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.01"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "banfield-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Banfield Reserves",
"away_team_id": 18679,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18679.webp",
"away_team_name": "Banfield Reserves",
"away_team_public_id": "37XHbILeM5BOvQ",
"away_team_slug": "banfield-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612030,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"home_team_id": 18687,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18687.webp",
"home_team_name": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"home_team_public_id": "4AjjVRljhokqYB",
"home_team_slug": "godoy-cruz-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "godoy-cruz-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3cu5nA4bnVRQaN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.2972,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2972,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4554
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3075
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2781,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0346,
"implied_prob": 0.2474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2972,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4554
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2609
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3927,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2972,
"draw": 0.2474,
"home": 0.4554
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4221
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": 0.0271,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0952,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.127,
"ev": -0.2552,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.221,
"alpha_yes": 0.2431,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.69,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0112,
"edge_yes": -0.0112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0927,
"ev_yes": -0.0789,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1027,
"implied_no": 0.4438,
"implied_yes": 0.5562,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5539
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4458,
"p_final_yes": 0.5539,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2372,
"alpha_under": 0.2157,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.0315,
"edge_under": 0.0315,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1045,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0818,
"implied_over": 0.5135,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5096,
"implied_under": 0.4865,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4904,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.5096,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5031
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4963
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5031,
"p_final_under": 0.4963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz Reserves)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0952,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Godoy Cruz Reserves at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Godoy Cruz Reserves as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Godoy Cruz Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Godoy Cruz Reserves \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612030 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Godoy Cruz Reserves).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.1516,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Godoy Cruz Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0026,
"market_prob": 0.4432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 2.035,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4458
},
"p_final": 0.4458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0927,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5539
}
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.4438,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.4904,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.5096,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5031
},
"p_final": 0.4963,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0818,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4963
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1612030,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Banfield Reserves",
"home": "Godoy Cruz Reserves"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1516,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612030,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T17:59:28.172111+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Reserva — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
