AI correctly predicted the Gimnasia La Plata Reserves win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves Gimnasia La Plata Reserves ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 38.0% | 35.7% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| San Lorenzo Reserves | 32.4% | 33.7% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Gimnasia La Plata Reserves win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Gimnasia La Plata Reserves win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · San Lorenzo Reserves 32.4%
- xG · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 1.36 — San Lorenzo Reserves 1.24
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 2.57 · Draw 2.99 · San Lorenzo Reserves 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 35.7% · Draw 30.6% · San Lorenzo Reserves 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 2.57 · Draw 2.99 · San Lorenzo Reserves 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 35.7% · Draw 30.6% · San Lorenzo Reserves 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gimnasia La Plata Reserves win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
88/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Gimnasia La Plata Reserves win · Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 2–0 San Lorenzo Reserves
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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"hero_mode": "default",
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],
"label": "Reason",
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{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"name": "Market Conflict",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.35,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.35,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"steam_team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 1.36 xG vs San Lorenzo Reserves 1.24 \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 38.0%",
"Market: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves ~35.7% implied",
"Market Steam: San Lorenzo Reserves \u2193 -14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but sharp money moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.35,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"market_prob": 35.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.06,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.3,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.56,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.56,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.73,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.73,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 35.66,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "San Lorenzo Reserves"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.35,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 1.36 xG vs San Lorenzo Reserves 1.24 \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves 38.0%",
"Market: Gimnasia La Plata Reserves ~35.7% implied",
"Market Steam: San Lorenzo Reserves \u2193 -14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, but sharp money moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.35,
"hero_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "San Lorenzo Reserves odds shortened \u2193 -14.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on San Lorenzo Reserves, with odds shortening by 14.9%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on San Lorenzo Reserves \u2014 odds shortened by 14.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on San Lorenzo Reserves, with odds shortening by 14.9%.",
"Buying interest on San Lorenzo Reserves \u2014 odds shortened by 14.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, San Lorenzo Reserves has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on San Lorenzo Reserves."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.35,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.35,
"edge_pp": 2.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 35.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.06,
"edge_pp": -1.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.3,
"edge_pp": -1.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"market_prob_pct": 33.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on San Lorenzo Reserves \u2014 odds shortened by 14.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gimnasia La Plata Reserves (35.7%).",
"However, San Lorenzo Reserves has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.9%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, Market \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves, Recent sharp money \u2192 San Lorenzo Reserves.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on San Lorenzo Reserves (14.9%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.67",
"2.45"
],
"display": "3.34 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 4m",
"pick_team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.72,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: San Lorenzo Reserves \u2193 -14.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: San Lorenzo Reserves \u2193 -14.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-lorenzo-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"away_team_id": 18697,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18697.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"away_team_public_id": "1WhIjAEn09Lgx8",
"away_team_slug": "san-lorenzo-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612028,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"home_team_id": 18686,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18686.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"home_team_public_id": "0SNzeCr2DmqJ6W",
"home_team_slug": "gimnasia-la-plata-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gimnasia-la-plata-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Reserva",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3PrTEfjpQwdkHG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4411,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3369,
"draw": 0.3065,
"home": 0.3566
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3311
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4429,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.3065,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3369,
"draw": 0.3065,
"home": 0.3566
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3018
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.434,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3369,
"draw": 0.3065,
"home": 0.3566
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3669
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0439,
"ev": -0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0385,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.0225,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2255,
"alpha_yes": 0.205,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0573,
"edge_yes": 0.0573,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1168,
"ev_yes": 0.039,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0707,
"implied_no": 0.5133,
"implied_yes": 0.4867,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5152,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5018
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0707,
"implied_prob": 0.4848,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.497
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5018,
"p_final_yes": 0.497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2041,
"alpha_under": 0.2246,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.58,
"edge_over": 0.0556,
"edge_under": -0.0556,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0564,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1059,
"implied_over": 0.4264,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4202,
"implied_under": 0.5736,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5798,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4328,
"p_final_under": 0.5659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata Reserves at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata Reserves as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Lorenzo Reserves, but the model still strongly favours Gimnasia La Plata Reserves.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.4848,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.5152,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5018
},
"p_final": 0.497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0707,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0707,
"implied_prob": 0.4848,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.497
}
},
"edge": 0.0573,
"ev": 0.039,
"implied_prob": 0.4867,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0126,
"market_prob": 0.4202,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2041,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0564,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.5798,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5659
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612028,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Lorenzo Reserves",
"home": "Gimnasia La Plata Reserves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036642,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0571,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3566,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612028,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T18:00:37.376611+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Reserva — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Reserves | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Reserves | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Reserves | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Reserves | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Reserves | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres de Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Reserves | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Reserves | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Reserves | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión de Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Reserves | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Reserves | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Reserves | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Reserves | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Reserves | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Reserves | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín de San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Reserves | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Reserves | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
