The model missed the final outcome (USM Alger win 2–3).
The model had projected Oued Akbou at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Oued Akbou USM Alger ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oued Akbou | 35.6% | 36.4% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 34.5% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| USM Alger | 34.7% | 29.2% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates USM Alger's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue USM Alger win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on USM Alger.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Oued Akbou; match finished USM Alger
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Oued Akbou by 5.5 percentage points (30.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Oued Akbou 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · USM Alger 34.7%
- xG · Oued Akbou 1.31 — USM Alger 1.29
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Oued Akbou 2.55 · Draw 2.69 · USM Alger 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · Oued Akbou 36.4% · Draw 34.5% · USM Alger 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Oued Akbou 2.55 · Draw 2.69 · USM Alger 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · Oued Akbou 36.4% · Draw 34.5% · USM Alger 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result USM Alger win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.18
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
USM Alger win · Oued Akbou 2–3 USM Alger
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0814,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.1,
"text": "-8.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.024,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0925,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Oued Akbou",
"sort_key": 1794.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"alert_team": "USM Alger",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.54,
"hero_label": "USM Alger",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "Oued Akbou",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Oued Akbou",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3496,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3496,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oued Akbou at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oued Akbou as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oued Akbou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0814,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0925,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.54,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"steam_team": "USM Alger",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3496,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3496,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oued Akbou at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oued Akbou as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oued Akbou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0814,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0925,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oued Akbou 1.31 xG vs USM Alger 1.29 \u2192 Oued Akbou 35.6%",
"Market: Oued Akbou ~36.4% implied",
"Market Steam: USM Alger \u2193 -19.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Oued Akbou, but sharp money moved toward USM Alger.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Oued Akbou",
"market_prob": 36.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.82,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "USM Alger",
"market_prob": 29.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.93,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.98,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.98,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "USM Alger",
"market_prob_pct": 29.16,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "USM Alger"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates USM Alger\u0027s win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Oued Akbou",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oued Akbou 1.31 xG vs USM Alger 1.29 \u2192 Oued Akbou 35.6%",
"Market: Oued Akbou ~36.4% implied",
"Market Steam: USM Alger \u2193 -19.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Oued Akbou, but sharp money moved toward USM Alger.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.54,
"hero_label": "USM Alger",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "USM Alger odds shortened \u2193 -19.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on USM Alger.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on USM Alger.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on USM Alger.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on USM Alger."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on USM Alger.",
"Recent line movement on USM Alger (\u2193 -19.1%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "USM Alger",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates USM Alger considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.73,
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Oued Akbou",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.82,
"edge_pp": -4.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.54,
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "USM Alger",
"market_prob_pct": 29.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on USM Alger.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Oued Akbou (36.4%).",
"However, USM Alger has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -19.1%, 5/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Oued Akbou, Market \u2192 Oued Akbou, Recent sharp money \u2192 USM Alger.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.45,
"closing_odds": 3.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.45,
"entry_odds": 3.18,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on USM Alger (19.1%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.08",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.60 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h",
"pick_team": "USM Alger",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.18,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.1 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: USM Alger \u2193 -19.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "USM Alger",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: USM Alger \u2193 -19.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward USM Alger while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "USM Alger",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "USM Alger",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_team_name": "USM Alger",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "usm-alger",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "USM Alger",
"away_team_id": 910,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/910.webp",
"away_team_name": "USM Alger",
"away_team_public_id": "1MmaECJ9QaewHy",
"away_team_slug": "usm-alger",
"country_code": "DZ",
"country_display_name": "Algeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dz.svg",
"country_id": 2,
"country_name": "Algeria",
"fixture_id": 1611401,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Algeria",
"home_team_display_name": "Oued Akbou",
"home_team_id": 10780,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10780.webp",
"home_team_name": "Oued Akbou",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Oued Akbou",
"home_team_public_id": "3klHTxHxpkkSbg",
"home_team_slug": "oued-akbou",
"ht.home_team_slug": "oued-akbou",
"league_country": "Algeria",
"league_country_display": "Algeria",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 de Argelia",
"league_id": 186,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/186.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 de Argelia",
"league_public_id": "0P6YHYTokxGgL6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 15:00:00",
"public_id": "3ny7E2ozNCg0Jc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Akbou",
"venue_name": "Stade des Martyrs"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2749,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.2916,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2916,
"draw": 0.3447,
"home": 0.3637
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3069
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4176,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1265,
"implied_prob": 0.3447,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2916,
"draw": 0.3447,
"home": 0.3637
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3247
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4448,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0814,
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2916,
"draw": 0.3447,
"home": 0.3637
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3602
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.075,
"ev": -0.2016,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.204,
"alpha_yes": 0.1854,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1198,
"edge_yes": 0.1198,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1227,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.038,
"implied_no": 0.5748,
"implied_yes": 0.4252,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.204,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5483
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1854,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4495
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5483,
"p_final_yes": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1421,
"alpha_under": 0.1954,
"best_over_odd": 2.8,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.38,
"edge_over": 0.1393,
"edge_under": -0.1393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3496,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0383,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"implied_over": 0.3427,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3416,
"implied_under": 0.6573,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6584,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.3416,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3615
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6584,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.631
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3615,
"p_final_under": 0.631,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3496,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3496,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3496,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3496,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3496,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Oued Akbou at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Oued Akbou as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Oued Akbou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward USM Alger, but the model still strongly favours Oued Akbou.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
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},
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"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0034,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Oued Akbou"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0217,
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"no": {
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "yes",
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.02,
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"over": {
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1611401,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3496,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "USM Alger",
"home": "Oued Akbou"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
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"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.0925,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1611401,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:59:34.016982+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 1 de Argelia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | MC Oran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | CS Constantine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Témouchent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | ES Setif | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Alger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | JS El Biar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | US Biskra | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | ES Setif | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | CS Constantine | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | JS El Biar | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Oran | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 9 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | MC Alger | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | Témouchent | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | US Biskra | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Khenchela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
