AI correctly predicted the CR Belouizdad win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 CR Belouizdad CR Belouizdad ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Biskra | 25.4% | 21.4% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.8% | 31.3% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| CR Belouizdad | 45.8% | 47.3% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (CR Belouizdad win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- CR Belouizdad attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (CR Belouizdad win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · US Biskra 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · CR Belouizdad 45.8%
- xG · US Biskra 1.08 — CR Belouizdad 1.52
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · US Biskra 4.33 · Draw 2.96 · CR Belouizdad 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · US Biskra 21.4% · Draw 31.3% · CR Belouizdad 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · US Biskra 4.33 · Draw 2.96 · CR Belouizdad 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · US Biskra 21.4% · Draw 31.3% · CR Belouizdad 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CR Belouizdad win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
80/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CR Belouizdad win · US Biskra 0–1 CR Belouizdad
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
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"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
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"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
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"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
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},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad).",
"Decision strength: 8.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.97,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.08,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.08 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"steam_team": "US Biskra",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3207,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3207,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CR Belouizdad at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CR Belouizdad as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CR Belouizdad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad).",
"Decision strength: 8.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: US Biskra 1.08 xG vs CR Belouizdad 1.52 \u2192 CR Belouizdad 45.8%",
"Market: CR Belouizdad ~47.3% implied",
"Market Drift: US Biskra odds \u2191 +24.2%"
],
"one_liner": "CR Belouizdad projects stronger on expected goals (+0.44 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob": 25.37,
"label": "US Biskra",
"market_prob": 21.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.5,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.47,
"fair_prob": 45.82,
"label": "CR Belouizdad",
"market_prob": 47.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.51,
"fair_prob": 53.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.51,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "US Biskra",
"market_prob_pct": 21.4,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "US Biskra"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "CR Belouizdad",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "CR Belouizdad \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: US Biskra 1.08 xG vs CR Belouizdad 1.52 \u2192 CR Belouizdad 45.8%",
"Market: CR Belouizdad ~47.3% implied",
"Market Drift: US Biskra odds \u2191 +24.2%"
],
"one_liner": "CR Belouizdad projects stronger on expected goals (+0.44 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.97,
"hero_label": "US Biskra",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "US Biskra odds lengthened \u2191 +24.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on US Biskra.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on US Biskra."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on US Biskra (\u2191 +24.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on US Biskra."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "US Biskra",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.97,
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "US Biskra",
"market_prob_pct": 21.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.5,
"edge_pp": -2.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.47,
"edge_pp": -1.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CR Belouizdad",
"market_prob_pct": 47.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on US Biskra.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CR Belouizdad (47.3%).",
"However, US Biskra has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +24.2%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"CR Belouizdad \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.09,
"closing_odds": 4.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
"entry_odds": 4.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 24.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/8 books lengthened US Biskra together (24.2% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.81",
"3.30"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 43m",
"pick_team": "US Biskra",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
4.33,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: US Biskra odds \u2191 +24.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "US Biskra",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: US Biskra odds \u2191 +24.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "US Biskra",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.2%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "US Biskra",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "US Biskra",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cr-belouizdad",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CR Belouizdad",
"away_team_id": 904,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/904.webp",
"away_team_name": "CR Belouizdad",
"away_team_public_id": "0u3tD7kSlGyltl",
"away_team_slug": "cr-belouizdad",
"country_code": "DZ",
"country_display_name": "Algeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dz.svg",
"country_id": 2,
"country_name": "Algeria",
"fixture_id": 1611396,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Algeria",
"home_team_display_name": "US Biskra",
"home_team_id": 909,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/909.webp",
"home_team_name": "US Biskra",
"home_team_public_id": "398U3b0ZYdZjUI",
"home_team_slug": "us-biskra",
"ht.home_team_slug": "us-biskra",
"league_country": "Algeria",
"league_country_display": "Algeria",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 de Argelia",
"league_id": 186,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/186.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 de Argelia",
"league_public_id": "0P6YHYTokxGgL6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2T3vwlhSX9g4wN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Biskra",
"venue_name": "18 February Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.587,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4729,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.214
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.4644
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.433,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.1054,
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4729,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.214
},
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.3022
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1881,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.214,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4729,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.214
},
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.2215
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0518,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.4584
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": -0.0499,
"ev": -0.1476,
"implied_prob": 0.3378,
"model_prob": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.2309,
"model_prob": 0.2536
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2008,
"alpha_yes": 0.1461,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1251,
"edge_yes": 0.1251,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2512,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1246,
"ev_yes": 0.2662,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_no": 0.5931,
"implied_yes": 0.4069,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.5937,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.5684
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.4247
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5684,
"p_final_yes": 0.4247,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1441,
"alpha_under": 0.1982,
"best_over_odd": 2.74,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1296,
"edge_under": -0.1296,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3207,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0388,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1256,
"implied_over": 0.3524,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3491,
"implied_under": 0.6476,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6509,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0388,
"implied_prob": 0.3491,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1982,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.6509,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6245
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3683,
"p_final_under": 0.6245,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3207,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3207,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3207,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3207,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3207,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CR Belouizdad at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CR Belouizdad as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CR Belouizdad",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CR Belouizdad).",
"Decision strength: 8.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CR Belouizdad"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.4063,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2008,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1246,
"implied_prob": 0.5937,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.5684
},
"p_final": 0.4247,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1461,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.4247
}
},
"edge": 0.1251,
"ev": 0.2662,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0192,
"market_prob": 0.3491,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0388,
"implied_prob": 0.3491,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"p_final": 0.3683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0388,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1982,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.6509,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6245
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1296,
"ev": 0.3207,
"implied_prob": 0.3524,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1611396,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3207,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4584,
"draw": 0.288,
"home": 0.2536
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3207,
"implied_prob": 0.3524,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3207,
"implied_prob": 0.3524,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CR Belouizdad",
"home": "US Biskra"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.141618,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2662,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4729,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1015,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1611396,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T16:59:06.387644+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 1 de Argelia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | MC Oran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | CS Constantine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Témouchent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | ES Setif | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Alger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | JS El Biar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | US Biskra | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | ES Setif | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | CS Constantine | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | JS El Biar | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Oran | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 9 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | MC Alger | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | Témouchent | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | US Biskra | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Khenchela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
