The model missed the final outcome (TOŠK Tešanj win 2–0).
The model had projected Stupčanica Olovo at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Stupčanica Olovo TOŠK Tešanj ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOŠK Tešanj | 34.7% | 28.9% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Stupčanica Olovo | 35.6% | 44.8% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Stupčanica Olovo's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue TOŠK Tešanj win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stupčanica Olovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Stupčanica Olovo; match finished TOŠK Tešanj
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Stupčanica Olovo by 9.1 percentage points (44.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · TOŠK Tešanj 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Stupčanica Olovo 35.6%
- xG · TOŠK Tešanj 1.29 — Stupčanica Olovo 1.31
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · TOŠK Tešanj 3.10 · Draw 3.40 · Stupčanica Olovo 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · TOŠK Tešanj 28.9% · Draw 26.3% · Stupčanica Olovo 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · TOŠK Tešanj 3.10 · Draw 3.40 · Stupčanica Olovo 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · TOŠK Tešanj 28.9% · Draw 26.3% · Stupčanica Olovo 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result TOŠK Tešanj win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
54/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
TOŠK Tešanj win · TOŠK Tešanj 2–0 Stupčanica Olovo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1758,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"text": "-17.6%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0549,
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"text": "-5.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
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"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stup\u010danica Olovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.13,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stup\u010danica Olovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj 1.29 xG vs Stup\u010danica Olovo 1.31 \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo 35.6%",
"Market: Stup\u010danica Olovo ~44.8% implied",
"Market Steam: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stup\u010danica Olovo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"market_prob": 28.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"market_prob": 44.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.95,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.95,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo\u0027s win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Stup\u010danica Olovo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj 1.29 xG vs Stup\u010danica Olovo 1.31 \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo 35.6%",
"Market: Stup\u010danica Olovo ~44.8% implied",
"Market Steam: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stup\u010danica Olovo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.13,
"hero_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stup\u010danica Olovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Stup\u010danica Olovo relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Stup\u010danica Olovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Stup\u010danica Olovo above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stup\u010danica Olovo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.81,
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"market_prob_pct": 28.89,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.31,
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.13,
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Stup\u010danica Olovo relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stup\u010danica Olovo (44.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo, Market \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/4",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "stupcanica-olovo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"away_team_id": 17901,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17901.webp",
"away_team_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"away_team_public_id": "5upsz3toBiWp0e",
"away_team_slug": "stupcanica-olovo",
"country_code": "BA",
"country_display_name": "Bosnia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
"country_id": 22,
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"fixture_id": 1611078,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_display_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"home_team_id": 3380,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3380.webp",
"home_team_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"home_team_public_id": "5I2XjQFFx8AH1Q",
"home_team_slug": "tosk-tesanj",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tosk-tesanj",
"league_country": "Bosnia",
"league_country_display": "Bosnia",
"league_display_name": "Primera Liga - FBiH",
"league_id": 316,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/316.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Liga - FBiH",
"league_public_id": "2whc9TyqMLfubT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2Nztuq9PAWcpjW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.388,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4477,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.2889
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4121
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4477,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.2889
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2737,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.2889,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4477,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.2889
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3049
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1441,
"ev": -0.2881,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": 0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1529,
"alpha_yes": 0.1682,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0195,
"edge_yes": -0.0195,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0792,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0908,
"implied_no": 0.4355,
"implied_yes": 0.5645,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4385
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0908,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5612
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4385,
"p_final_yes": 0.5612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2309,
"alpha_under": 0.2099,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.925,
"edge_over": -0.0501,
"edge_under": 0.0501,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1067,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"implied_over": 0.5321,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5267,
"implied_under": 0.4679,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4733,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2309,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4827
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5164,
"p_final_under": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stup\u010danica Olovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4385
},
"p_final": 0.4385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0792,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0908,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5612
}
},
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.4733,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2309,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"p_final": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4827
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0501,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1611078,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"home": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1611078,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:30:23.119956+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Liga - FBiH — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Posušje | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Čapljina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tomislav | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Vitez | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Travnik | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | Posušje | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Tomislav | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 11 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Čapljina | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 13 | Vitez | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
