AI correctly predicted the Colina win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Colina Colina ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Velásquez | 34.2% | 38.5% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.8% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Colina | 36.1% | 32.7% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Colina win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Colina win 2–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · General Velásquez 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Colina 36.1%
- xG · General Velásquez 1.28 — Colina 1.32
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · General Velásquez 2.35 · Draw 3.14 · Colina 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · General Velásquez 38.5% · Draw 28.8% · Colina 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · General Velásquez 2.35 · Draw 3.14 · Colina 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · General Velásquez 38.5% · Draw 28.8% · Colina 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colina win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
27/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.35
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colina win · General Velásquez 2–3 Colina
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
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"alert_team": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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{
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
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"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colina at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colina",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0546,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0003,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.27,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"steam_team": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colina at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colina as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colina",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0546,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0003,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: General Vel\u00e1squez 1.28 xG vs Colina 1.32 \u2192 Colina 36.1%",
"Market: General Vel\u00e1squez ~32.7% implied",
"Market Drift: General Vel\u00e1squez odds \u2191 +4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colina with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"market_prob": 38.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.83,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Colina",
"market_prob": 32.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.0,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.77,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"market_prob_pct": 38.51,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "General Vel\u00e1squez"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colina",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Colina \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: General Vel\u00e1squez 1.28 xG vs Colina 1.32 \u2192 Colina 36.1%",
"Market: General Vel\u00e1squez ~32.7% implied",
"Market Drift: General Vel\u00e1squez odds \u2191 +4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colina with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.27,
"hero_label": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "General Vel\u00e1squez odds lengthened \u2191 +4.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on General Vel\u00e1squez.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on General Vel\u00e1squez."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on General Vel\u00e1squez (\u2191 +4.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.27,
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"market_prob_pct": 38.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.83,
"edge_pp": 0.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.44,
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colina",
"market_prob_pct": 32.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on General Vel\u00e1squez.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers General Vel\u00e1squez (32.7%).",
"General Vel\u00e1squez odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.4%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Colina, Market \u2192 General Vel\u00e1squez, while General Vel\u00e1squez odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.55,
"closing_odds": 2.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.55,
"entry_odds": 2.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on General Vel\u00e1squez (4.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.30",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 2.13 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 50m",
"pick_team": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on General Vel\u00e1squez",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colina",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Colina",
"away_team_id": 5634,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5634.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colina",
"away_team_public_id": "3dVKL0EPpjAxk1",
"away_team_slug": "colina",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1610588,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"home_team_id": 5639,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5639.webp",
"home_team_name": "General Vel\u00e1squez",
"home_team_public_id": "3PxJZWlhEq1aT6",
"home_team_slug": "general-velasquez",
"ht.home_team_slug": "general-velasquez",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n de Chile",
"league_id": 711,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/711.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n de Chile",
"league_public_id": "3kq0Z17AmxzSEP",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 20:00:00",
"public_id": "5jzlqwWG6FmEvW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "San Vicente de Tagua Tagua",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4269,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.3267,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3267,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3851
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3413
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2962,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0025,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3267,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3851
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2907
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4212,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.3851,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3267,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3851
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3671
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0002,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": -0.0218,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0831,
"ev": -0.1954,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2084,
"alpha_yes": 0.2084,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0477,
"edge_yes": 0.0477,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1673,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1061,
"ev_yes": 0.0192,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0687,
"implied_no": 0.5027,
"implied_yes": 0.4973,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1061,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4939
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5061
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4939,
"p_final_yes": 0.5061,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2076,
"alpha_under": 0.2284,
"best_over_odd": 2.21,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.05,
"edge_under": -0.05,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0603,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.102,
"implied_over": 0.432,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4305,
"implied_under": 0.568,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5695,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4412,
"p_final_under": 0.5578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0652,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colina at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colina as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colina",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colina).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0546,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0003,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.3267,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Colina"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.4959,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1061,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4939
},
"p_final": 0.5061,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0687,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2084,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5061
}
},
"edge": 0.0477,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.4305,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2076,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0603,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0603,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.05,
"ev": 0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.432,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1610588,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0652,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colina",
"home": "General Vel\u00e1squez"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.021998,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.432,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0546,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3267,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0003,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1610588,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:59:56.129445+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División de Chile — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua CD | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trasandino | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Santiago City | 12 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Concón National | 12 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Linares Unido | 12 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Colchagua CD | 12 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | Colina | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | General Velásquez | 12 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
