The model missed the final outcome (Ostia Mare win 0–2).
The model had projected Gubbio at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Gubbio Ostia Mare ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gubbio | 35.6% | 38.5% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.7% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Ostia Mare | 34.7% | 32.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Ostia Mare win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Ostia Mare win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gubbio 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Ostia Mare 34.7%
- xG · Gubbio 1.31 — Ostia Mare 1.29
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gubbio 2.41 · Draw 3.24 · Ostia Mare 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Gubbio 38.5% · Draw 28.7% · Ostia Mare 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gubbio 2.41 · Draw 3.24 · Ostia Mare 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Gubbio 38.5% · Draw 28.7% · Ostia Mare 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ostia Mare win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
85/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ostia Mare win · Gubbio 0–2 Ostia Mare
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1019,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"alert_team": "Ostia Mare",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
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"hero_edge_pp": -2.89,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
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"execution_confidence": 36,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gubbio at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gubbio as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gubbio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.89,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"steam_team": "Ostia Mare",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gubbio at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gubbio as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gubbio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gubbio 1.31 xG vs Ostia Mare 1.29 \u2192 Gubbio 35.6%",
"Market: Gubbio ~38.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Ostia Mare \u2193 -18.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gubbio, but sharp money moved toward Ostia Mare.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.89,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Gubbio",
"market_prob": 38.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.99,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Ostia Mare",
"market_prob": 32.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.57,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.57,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gubbio",
"market_prob_pct": 38.53,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Ostia Mare"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gubbio",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gubbio 1.31 xG vs Ostia Mare 1.29 \u2192 Gubbio 35.6%",
"Market: Gubbio ~38.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Ostia Mare \u2193 -18.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gubbio, but sharp money moved toward Ostia Mare.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.89,
"hero_label": "Gubbio",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ostia Mare odds shortened \u2193 -18.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Ostia Mare, with odds shortening by 18.9%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Ostia Mare \u2014 odds shortened by 18.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Ostia Mare, with odds shortening by 18.9%.",
"Buying interest on Ostia Mare \u2014 odds shortened by 18.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Ostia Mare has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 18.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Ostia Mare."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Gubbio",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.89,
"edge_pp": -2.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gubbio",
"market_prob_pct": 38.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.99,
"edge_pp": 0.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.89,
"edge_pp": 1.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ostia Mare",
"market_prob_pct": 32.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Ostia Mare \u2014 odds shortened by 18.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gubbio (38.5%).",
"However, Ostia Mare has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -18.9%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gubbio, Market \u2192 Gubbio, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ostia Mare.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.49,
"closing_odds": 2.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.49,
"entry_odds": 2.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books synchronized on Ostia Mare (18.9% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.27",
"2.83"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"pick_team": "Ostia Mare",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
2.83,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.5",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ostia Mare \u2193 -18.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ostia Mare",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ostia Mare \u2193 -18.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Ostia Mare while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ostia Mare",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Ostia Mare",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Ostia Mare",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ostia-mare",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ostia Mare",
"away_team_id": 9530,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9530.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ostia Mare",
"away_team_public_id": "2xoIeJIJUWuiMY",
"away_team_slug": "ostia-mare",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608665,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Gubbio",
"home_team_id": 866,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/866.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gubbio",
"home_team_public_id": "367UIwWmoCew0k",
"home_team_slug": "gubbio",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gubbio",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_id": 942,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/942.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_public_id": "60hh7BGqSoxefa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:30:00",
"public_id": "48EdiJIyFw2fFX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gubbio",
"venue_name": "Stadio Pietro Barbetti"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4371,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3281,
"draw": 0.2866,
"home": 0.3853
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3365
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2954,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.2866,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3281,
"draw": 0.2866,
"home": 0.3853
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4302,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3281,
"draw": 0.2866,
"home": 0.3853
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3727
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.059,
"ev": -0.1422,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2128,
"alpha_yes": 0.2128,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0357,
"edge_yes": 0.0357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0984,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0702,
"implied_no": 0.4907,
"implied_yes": 0.5093,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4834
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5166
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4834,
"p_final_yes": 0.5166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.2349,
"best_over_odd": 2.13,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.665,
"edge_over": 0.0336,
"edge_under": -0.0336,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0267,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0664,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0945,
"implied_over": 0.4484,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4482,
"implied_under": 0.5516,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5518,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4482,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4554
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5518,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5439
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4554,
"p_final_under": 0.5439,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0267,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gubbio at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gubbio as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gubbio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ostia Mare, but the model still strongly favours Gubbio.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0267,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1019,
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gubbio"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.5089,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4834
},
"p_final": 0.5166,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0702,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0702,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5166
}
},
"edge": 0.0357,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4482,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4482,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4554
},
"p_final": 0.4554,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0664,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.5518,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5439
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0336,
"ev": 0.0267,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1608665,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0267,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ostia Mare",
"home": "Gubbio"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1019,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608665,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T18:29:49.197735+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie C - Girone B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Reggiana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Torres | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Forlì | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Perugia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Atalanta II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Pescara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Gubbio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Pineto | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Latina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Vado | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Pianese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Forlì | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ravenna | 7 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Reggiana | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 | Livorno | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Pescara | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Gubbio | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Torres | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Ostia Mare | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Pineto | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Perugia | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Latina | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Vado | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Pianese | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
