The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Trento at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Trento Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio | 33.3% | 26.0% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.9% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Trento | 37.1% | 44.1% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Giana Erminio's win probability at 33.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Giana Erminio.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Trento; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Trento by 7.3 percentage points (29.8% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Giana Erminio 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Trento 37.0%
- xG · Giana Erminio 1.26 — Trento 1.34
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Giana Erminio 3.56 · Draw 3.10 · Trento 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Giana Erminio 26.0% · Draw 29.9% · Trento 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Giana Erminio 3.56 · Draw 3.10 · Trento 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Giana Erminio 26.0% · Draw 29.9% · Trento 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
63/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.56
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Giana Erminio 2–2 Trento
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1334,
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"raw_pct": -13.3,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"tier": "pass"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"alert_team": "Giana Erminio",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.3,
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"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trento at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trento as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trento",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Trento \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1608276 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1334,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.29,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"steam_team": "Giana Erminio",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trento at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trento as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trento",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Trento \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1608276 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1334,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Giana Erminio 1.26 xG vs Trento 1.34 \u2192 Trento 37.1%",
"Market: Trento ~44.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Giana Erminio odds \u2191 +6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trento with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Giana Erminio",
"market_prob": 26.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.25,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.05,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Trento",
"market_prob": 44.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.33,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Giana Erminio",
"market_prob_pct": 26.02,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Giana Erminio"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Giana Erminio\u0027s win probability at 33.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Trento",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.0,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Trento \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Giana Erminio 1.26 xG vs Trento 1.34 \u2192 Trento 37.1%",
"Market: Trento ~44.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Giana Erminio odds \u2191 +6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trento with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.29,
"hero_label": "Giana Erminio",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Giana Erminio odds lengthened \u2191 +6.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Giana Erminio.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Giana Erminio.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Giana Erminio.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Giana Erminio."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Giana Erminio.",
"Recent line movement on Giana Erminio (\u2191 +6.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Giana Erminio."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Giana Erminio",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.3,
"lead": "The model rates Giana Erminio considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.29,
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Giana Erminio",
"market_prob_pct": 26.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.25,
"edge_pp": -0.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.05,
"edge_pp": -7.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Trento",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Giana Erminio.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trento (44.1%).",
"Giana Erminio odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.2%, 6/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Trento \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.09,
"closing_odds": 3.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.09,
"entry_odds": 3.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 35m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Giana Erminio (6.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.56",
"3.38",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.56 \u2192 3.04 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 35m",
"pick_team": "Giana Erminio",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.04"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.56,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Giana Erminio",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Giana Erminio",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Giana Erminio",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Giana Erminio",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Giana Erminio",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "trento",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Trento",
"away_team_id": 17147,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17147.webp",
"away_team_name": "Trento",
"away_team_public_id": "4mnPb88cWwtkln",
"away_team_slug": "trento",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608276,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Giana Erminio",
"home_team_id": 865,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/865.webp",
"home_team_name": "Giana Erminio",
"home_team_public_id": "2zkiwTwGHEjzVU",
"home_team_slug": "giana-erminio",
"ht.home_team_slug": "giana-erminio",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone A",
"league_id": 138,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/138.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone A",
"league_public_id": "2TIxevBvcuUZGk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4b8zacMZhwcaqs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gorgonzola",
"venue_name": "Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1334,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2988,
"home": 0.2602
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2987,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0008,
"ev": -0.0764,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2988,
"home": 0.2602
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2979
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.267,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.0041,
"implied_prob": 0.2602,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2988,
"home": 0.2602
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.2797
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1057,
"ev": -0.2219,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0526,
"ev": 0.1872,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2071,
"alpha_yes": 0.2071,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0533,
"edge_yes": 0.0533,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1026,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0622,
"implied_no": 0.5083,
"implied_yes": 0.4917,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4972
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4972,
"p_final_yes": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2075,
"alpha_under": 0.2282,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.615,
"edge_over": 0.052,
"edge_under": -0.052,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0566,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.43,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4301,
"implied_under": 0.57,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5699,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4409
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2282,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5699,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5581
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4409,
"p_final_under": 0.5581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trento at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trento as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trento",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Trento \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1608276 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trento).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1334,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0284,
"ev": -0.1334,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Trento"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.865,
"edge": 0.011,
"market_prob": 0.4918,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.805,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4972
},
"p_final": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0622,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2071,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"edge": 0.0533,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4301,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2075,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4409
},
"p_final": 0.4409,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0566,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2282,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5699,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5581
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.052,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.43,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1608276,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Trento",
"home": "Giana Erminio"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.43,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1334,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608276,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T18:59:36.643509+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie C - Girone A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Trento | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Treviso | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alcione | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lecco | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Desenzano Calvina | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Athletic Carpi | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Folgore Caratese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Novara | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Renate | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 7 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 7 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Albinoleffe | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Alcione | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Athletic Carpi | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Trento | 7 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 9 | Treviso | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | Folgore Caratese | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Pro Vercelli | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Renate | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Lecco | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Desenzano Calvina | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Pergolettese | 7 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
