AI correctly predicted the Raków Częstochowa win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Raków Częstochowa win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hammarby FF 1.22 — Raków Częstochowa 1.38
-
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Raków Częstochowa win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Raków Częstochowa win · Hammarby FF 0–1 Raków Częstochowa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"alert_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 24.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.46,
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"market_prob_pct": 18.8,
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"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +95% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1607612 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +95% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9485,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+94.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "12/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9230769230769231,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 24.46,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 24.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"steam_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +95% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1607612 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +95% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9485,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+94.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hammarby FF 1.22 xG vs Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 1.38 \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 39.0%",
"Market: Hammarby FF ~18.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa odds \u2191 +19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -24.46,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Hammarby FF",
"market_prob": 55.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.17,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"market_prob": 18.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -24.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hammarby FF",
"market_prob_pct": 55.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hammarby FF\u0027s win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 24.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 24.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 18.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hammarby FF 1.22 xG vs Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 1.38 \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 39.0%",
"Market: Hammarby FF ~18.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa odds \u2191 +19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.46,
"hero_label": "Hammarby FF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa odds lengthened \u2191 +19.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 24.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Hammarby FF",
"largest_gap_pp": -24.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hammarby FF higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 24.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -24.46,
"edge_pp": -24.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hammarby FF",
"market_prob_pct": 55.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.28,
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.17,
"edge_pp": 20.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"market_prob_pct": 18.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hammarby FF (18.8%).",
"However, Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +19.0%, 12/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, Market \u2192 Hammarby FF, while Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
"closing_odds": 1.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
"entry_odds": 1.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +62.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 62.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +60.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 60.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +60.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 60.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 106h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"12/13 books lengthened Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa together (19.0% drift, score 68) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.60",
"4.20"
],
"display": "5.07 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 106h 1m",
"pick_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.07"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa odds \u2191 +19.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa odds \u2191 +19.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 24.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"away_team_id": 3491,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3491.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"away_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1607612,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Hammarby FF",
"home_team_id": 363,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/363.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hammarby FF",
"home_team_slug": "hammarby-ff",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Conferencia de la UEFA",
"league_id": 848,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/848.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Conferencia de la UEFA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-13 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Stockholm",
"venue_name": "3Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 5.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.0805,
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.188,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.5594
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.2161
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2808,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0155,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.188,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.5594
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2646
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.38,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0929,
"ev": -0.2163,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.188,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.5594
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.4665
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.0,
"edge": 0.1897,
"ev": 0.9483,
"implied_prob": 0.2,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": 0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.2803,
"ev": -0.4709,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9483,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0805,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9483,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +95% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1607612 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +95% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9485,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+94.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.0,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.0805,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1607612,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0805,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"home": "Hammarby FF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034508,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0805,
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0805,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9485,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+94.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1607612,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-13T17:00:05.959118+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Conferencia de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aarhus GF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | SC Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Brann | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | FC Copenhague | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Estrella Roja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | SC Friburgo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heart of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Saburtalo Tiflis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Kairat Almaty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | KuPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Lincoln Red Imps | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | FC Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Mjällby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Mónaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | FC Nordsjælland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Riga FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | FC Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Universitatea Craiova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aarhus GF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | SC Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Brann | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | FC Copenhague | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Estrella Roja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | SC Friburgo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heart of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Saburtalo Tiflis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Kairat Almaty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | KuPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Lincoln Red Imps | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | FC Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Mjällby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Mónaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | FC Nordsjælland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Riga FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | FC Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Universitatea Craiova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
