The model missed the final outcome (Huracán Las Heras win 1–0).
The model had projected Atenas at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Atenas Huracán Las Heras ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huracán Las Heras | 29.2% | 22.2% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.4% | -0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Atenas | 41.4% | 48.4% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Huracán Las Heras's win probability at 29.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.2%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Huracán Las Heras win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Huracán Las Heras.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atenas by 7.1 percentage points (34.3% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Huracán Las Heras 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Atenas 41.4%
- xG · Huracán Las Heras 1.17 — Atenas 1.43
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Huracán Las Heras 3.91 · Draw 2.95 · Atenas 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Huracán Las Heras 22.2% · Draw 29.4% · Atenas 48.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Huracán Las Heras 3.91 · Draw 2.95 · Atenas 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Huracán Las Heras 22.2% · Draw 29.4% · Atenas 48.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Huracán Las Heras win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
64/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Huracán Las Heras win · Huracán Las Heras 1–0 Atenas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.2009,
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},
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},
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.3%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.1,
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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],
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},
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 7.1,
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"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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},
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"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atenas at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atenas as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atenas",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas).",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.08,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.17,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.17 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"steam_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atenas at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atenas as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atenas",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas).",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras 1.17 xG vs Atenas 1.43 \u2192 Atenas 41.4%",
"Market: Atenas ~48.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atenas with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"market_prob": 22.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.03,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.04,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Atenas",
"market_prob": 48.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.45,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.42,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.42,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"market_prob_pct": 22.17,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras\u0027s win probability at 29.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.2%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atenas",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.0,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Atenas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras 1.17 xG vs Atenas 1.43 \u2192 Atenas 41.4%",
"Market: Atenas ~48.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atenas with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.08,
"hero_label": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras odds lengthened \u2191 +13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"Recent line movement on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras (\u2191 +13.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.1,
"lead": "The model rates Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.08,
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"market_prob_pct": 22.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.03,
"edge_pp": -0.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.04,
"edge_pp": -7.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atenas",
"market_prob_pct": 48.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atenas (48.4%).",
"However, Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.3%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Atenas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.58,
"closing_odds": 3.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.58,
"entry_odds": 3.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras (13.3%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.91",
"3.46",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.96 \u2192 2.94 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 46m",
"pick_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.96"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.91,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras odds \u2191 +13.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras odds \u2191 +13.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atenas-21043",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atenas",
"away_team_id": 21043,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21043.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atenas",
"away_team_public_id": "3yeTBtD6dkeqEI",
"away_team_slug": "atenas-21043",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606422,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"home_team_id": 2428,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2428.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras",
"home_team_public_id": "0FaOI6d5i4iZDl",
"home_team_slug": "huracan-las-heras",
"ht.home_team_slug": "huracan-las-heras",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1rMF6dp59zDJiZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Las Heras",
"venue_name": "Estadio General San Martin"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5364,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0379,
"ev": -0.2009,
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4844,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2217
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4465
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4498,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.1334,
"implied_prob": 0.2939,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4844,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2217
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2938
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2681,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.2217,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4844,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2217
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2408
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.145,
"ev": -0.2595,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.4137
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": -0.0454,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.037,
"ev": 0.1446,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2927
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1899,
"alpha_yes": 0.1381,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.39,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1542,
"edge_yes": 0.1542,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2977,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1258,
"ev_yes": 0.293,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0308,
"implied_no": 0.6132,
"implied_yes": 0.3868,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1899,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5847
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1381,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.3858,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4072
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5847,
"p_final_yes": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1375,
"alpha_under": 0.189,
"best_over_odd": 2.83,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.79,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.34,
"edge_over": 0.1545,
"edge_under": -0.1545,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3641,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1347,
"implied_over": 0.3275,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3245,
"implied_under": 0.6725,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6755,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1375,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3245,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3461
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1347,
"implied_prob": 0.6755,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6458
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3461,
"p_final_under": 0.6458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atenas at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atenas as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atenas",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atenas).",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0379,
"ev": -0.2009,
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atenas"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1381,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3858,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1899,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5847
},
"p_final": 0.4072,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0308,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1381,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.3858,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4072
}
},
"edge": 0.1542,
"ev": 0.293,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1375,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0217,
"market_prob": 0.3245,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1375,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3245,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3461
},
"p_final": 0.3461,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1347,
"implied_prob": 0.6755,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6458
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1545,
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.3275,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606422,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3641,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4137,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2927
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.3275,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.3275,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atenas",
"home": "Hurac\u00e1n Las Heras"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.158513,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.293,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2595,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606422,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T18:02:34.746141+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Torneo Federal A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
