The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected San Martín de Formosa at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 San Martín de Formosa Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolomé Mitre | 31.9% | 29.0% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.6% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| San Martín de Formosa | 38.5% | 41.3% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bartolomé Mitre 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · San Martín de Formosa 38.5%
- xG · Bartolomé Mitre 1.23 — San Martín de Formosa 1.37
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bartolomé Mitre 3.06 · Draw 3.00 · San Martín de Formosa 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Bartolomé Mitre 29.0% · Draw 29.6% · San Martín de Formosa 41.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bartolomé Mitre 3.06 · Draw 3.00 · San Martín de Formosa 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Bartolomé Mitre 29.0% · Draw 29.6% · San Martín de Formosa 41.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
85/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Bartolomé Mitre 0–0 San Martín de Formosa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e9908375f2875b01ffd0d04f8d4f516e4ae4d2e1a69df2b3edd8de77552e52a1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"away_win_prob": 0.3849,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.6,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.13,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.3194,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or San Mart\u00edn de Formosa and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa"
},
"away_xg": 1.37,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0287,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4133,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.5,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.42,
"market_odds": 2.15,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -8.1,
"value_pct": -17.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 74.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 70.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.37,
"home_expected": 1.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre or Draw",
"prob": 61.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre or San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"prob": 68.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre or San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 31.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -17.3,
"implied_prob": 46.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa Win",
"model_prob": 38.5,
"odds": 2.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.33,
"draw": 29.62,
"home": 29.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 18:02:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:33:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.04,
"gap_pp": 2.91,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.62,
"gap_pp": -0.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.33,
"gap_pp": -2.87,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.64,
"gap_pp": 11.56,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.36,
"gap_pp": -11.56,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.06,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.62,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.33,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.64,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.36,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.25,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.02,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.4382,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1201,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5398
},
"p_final": 0.4582,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.4382,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4582
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2385,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1968,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1968,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10327.12,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0171,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.367,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.367,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3841
},
"p_final": 0.3841,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1929,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0493,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.633,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2628,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10236.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1379,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.8,
"text": "-13.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0858,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1731,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"sort_key": 1778.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"alert_team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.9,
"hero_label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"market_team": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de Formosa at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de Formosa as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1731,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.9,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"steam_team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de Formosa at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de Formosa as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1731,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre 1.23 xG vs San Mart\u00edn de Formosa 1.37 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de Formosa 38.5%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn de Formosa ~41.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa, but sharp money moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"market_prob": 29.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.05,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"market_prob": 41.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.8,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.8,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.58,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.58,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"market_prob_pct": 29.04,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre 1.23 xG vs San Mart\u00edn de Formosa 1.37 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de Formosa 38.5%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn de Formosa ~41.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa, but sharp money moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.9,
"hero_label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre odds shortened \u2193 -10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre (\u2193 -10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.9,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"market_prob_pct": 29.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.05,
"edge_pp": -0.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.84,
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"market_prob_pct": 41.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Mart\u00edn de Formosa (41.3%).",
"However, Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.0%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de Formosa, Market \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de Formosa, Recent sharp money \u2192 Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.68,
"closing_odds": 3.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.68,
"entry_odds": 3.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre (10.0%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.04",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.32 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 54m",
"pick_team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.06,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,7.9 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre \u2193 -10.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre \u2193 -10.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_team_name": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-martin-formosa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"away_team_id": 1935,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1935.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"away_team_public_id": "3V8yJLJhXrtONN",
"away_team_slug": "san-martin-formosa",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606420,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"home_team_id": 25756,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25756.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre",
"home_team_public_id": "0tbPpEbWO9FZRj",
"home_team_slug": "bartolome-mitre",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bartolome-mitre",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:00:00",
"public_id": "13HG8fUjSPDfas",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Posadas",
"venue_name": "Estadio Tito Cucchiaroni"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4306,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4133,
"draw": 0.2962,
"home": 0.2904
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.401
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2998,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.2962,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4133,
"draw": 0.2962,
"home": 0.2904
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2961
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2869,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.2904,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4133,
"draw": 0.2962,
"home": 0.2904
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2988
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0805,
"ev": -0.173,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0375,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2082,
"alpha_yes": 0.1893,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1058,
"edge_yes": 0.1058,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2385,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1201,
"ev_yes": 0.1968,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0424,
"implied_no": 0.5618,
"implied_yes": 0.4382,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1201,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5398
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.4382,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4582
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5398,
"p_final_yes": 0.4582,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.149,
"alpha_under": 0.2048,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.475,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.435,
"edge_over": 0.118,
"edge_under": -0.118,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0493,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1255,
"implied_over": 0.364,
"implied_over_mf": 0.367,
"implied_under": 0.636,
"implied_under_mf": 0.633,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.367,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3841
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.633,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3841,
"p_final_under": 0.6094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de Formosa at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de Formosa as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de Formosa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1731,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.02,
"market_prob": 0.4382,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2082,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1201,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5398
},
"p_final": 0.4582,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1893,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.4382,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4582
}
},
"edge": 0.1058,
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.4382,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.367,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"best_odd": 2.475,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.367,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3841
},
"p_final": 0.3841,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0493,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.633,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.118,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606420,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Mart\u00edn de Formosa",
"home": "Bartolom\u00e9 Mitre"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.107059,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1968,
"implied_prob": 0.4382,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1379,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4133,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1731,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606420,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T18:02:19.603032+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Bartolomé Mitre & San Martín de Formosa!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Torneo Federal A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio de Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martín de Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atlético Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia de Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino de Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley de Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucumán Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo de Bahía Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia de Concepción del Uruguay | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín de Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Círculo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
