The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Al Riyadh at 36.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Al Riyadh Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 34.0% | 42.1% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.9% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Al Riyadh | 36.8% | 32.0% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Al Khaleej Saihat's win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.0%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Al Khaleej Saihat. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al Riyadh; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Riyadh by 8.2 percentage points (45.0% vs model 36.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 34.0% · Draw 29.2% · Al Riyadh 36.8%
- xG · Al Khaleej Saihat 1.30 — Al Riyadh 1.36
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Khaleej Saihat 2.26 · Draw 3.68 · Al Riyadh 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Al Riyadh 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Khaleej Saihat 2.26 · Draw 3.68 · Al Riyadh 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Al Khaleej Saihat 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Al Riyadh 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
20/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0 Al Riyadh
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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],
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"summary": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"execution_confidence": 37,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Riyadh at 36.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Riyadh as the value side (36.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Riyadh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3676,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0954,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "13/13",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.16,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.16,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0954,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Riyadh at 36.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Riyadh as the value side (36.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Riyadh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3676,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0954,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.30 xG vs Al Riyadh 1.36 \u2192 Al Riyadh 36.8%",
"Market: Al Khaleej Saihat ~32.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Al Khaleej Saihat +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al Riyadh with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob": 33.99,
"label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"market_prob": 42.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 29.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob": 36.77,
"label": "Al Riyadh",
"market_prob": 31.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.03,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.81,
"fair_prob": 55.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.81,
"fair_prob": 44.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.99,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"market_prob_pct": 42.15,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Al Khaleej Saihat\u0027s win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.0%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.16,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al Riyadh",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.30 xG vs Al Riyadh 1.36 \u2192 Al Riyadh 36.8%",
"Market: Al Khaleej Saihat ~32.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Al Khaleej Saihat +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al Riyadh with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.16,
"hero_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Al Khaleej Saihat. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Khaleej Saihat.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Al Khaleej Saihat. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Khaleej Saihat."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Al Khaleej Saihat above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Al Khaleej Saihat (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Al Khaleej Saihat."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.16,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Al Khaleej Saihat higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.16,
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.99,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"market_prob_pct": 42.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.35,
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.8,
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Al Riyadh",
"market_prob_pct": 31.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Al Khaleej Saihat.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al Khaleej Saihat (32.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Al Riyadh, Market \u2192 Al Khaleej Saihat, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.25,
"closing_odds": 2.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.25,
"entry_odds": 2.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "al-riyadh-10511",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Al Riyadh",
"away_team_id": 10511,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10511.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al Riyadh",
"away_team_public_id": "04IYc8fb9crbDR",
"away_team_slug": "al-riyadh-10511",
"country_code": "SA",
"country_display_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
"country_id": 135,
"country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"fixture_id": 1603017,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"home_team_display_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"home_team_id": 2928,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2928.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"home_team_public_id": "0PPgIMPUBgFH4C",
"home_team_slug": "al-khaleej-saihat",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-khaleej-saihat",
"league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_country_display": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Saud\u00ed",
"league_id": 307,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Saud\u00ed",
"league_public_id": "4QNZqJCRQhyNYA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 15:30:00",
"public_id": "5GQi0UuSCVo9zV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dammam",
"venue_name": "Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4177,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3197,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.4215
},
"model_prob": 0.3676,
"p_final": 0.3397
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2849,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.2589,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3197,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.4215
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2684
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.395,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1201,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3197,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.4215
},
"model_prob": 0.3401,
"p_final": 0.3893
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3676
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": 0.0758,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": -0.1024,
"ev": -0.2314,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.3401
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5362,
"alpha_yes": 0.5898,
"best_no_odd": 2.28,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0181,
"edge_yes": -0.0181,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.01,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0527,
"ev_yes": -0.0698,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"implied_no": 0.4249,
"implied_yes": 0.5751,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5362,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5898,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.5645
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4346,
"p_final_yes": 0.5645,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5679,
"alpha_under": 0.5171,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.04,
"edge_over": -0.0403,
"edge_under": 0.0393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1022,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1,
"ev_under": 0.0664,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0145,
"implied_over": 0.5363,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5383,
"implied_under": 0.4637,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4617,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5679,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5383,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5171,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0145,
"implied_prob": 0.4617,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.4831
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5143,
"p_final_under": 0.4831,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0954,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0664,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0954,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Riyadh at 36.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Riyadh as the value side (36.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Riyadh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Al Khaleej Saihat, but the model still strongly favours Al Riyadh.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3676,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0954,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.557,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3676,
"over_prob": 0.496,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"under_prob": 0.503,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3676,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Al Riyadh"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.4248,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.443,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5362,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"p_final": 0.4346,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0527,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5898,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.5645
}
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.4249,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5171,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0213,
"market_prob": 0.4617,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.503,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5679,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.5383,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"p_final": 0.4831,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0145,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5171,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0145,
"implied_prob": 0.4617,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.4831
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4637,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1603017,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0664,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3676,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.3401
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al Riyadh",
"home": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.033399,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4637,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.503,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3197,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3676,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0954,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603017,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T15:29:06.195354+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Saudí — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Al Shabab | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 7 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 |
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Abha | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Al Taawon | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 7 | 13.7 | 4.9 | +8.8 | 18 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 9.1 | 3.6 | +5.5 | 16 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | +5.4 | 16 |
| 4 | Al Kholood | 7 | 10.9 | 7.3 | +3.6 | 12 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | +1.8 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 7 | 8.1 | 6.4 | +1.7 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 7 | 6.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | 11 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3.7 | 2.9 | +0.8 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Taawon | 7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | +0.4 | 3 |
| 10 | NEOM | 7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 15 |
| 11 | Al Shabab | 7 | 6.8 | 7.6 | -0.8 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 4.5 | 6.9 | -2.4 | 3 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 3.3 | 6.0 | -2.7 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 7 | 4.2 | 7.2 | -3.0 | 5 |
| 15 | Abha | 7 | 4.4 | 8.2 | -3.8 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 3.4 | 8.5 | -5.1 | 8 |
| 17 | Al-Faisaly FC | 7 | 4.5 | 9.7 | -5.2 | 3 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 7 | 5.0 | 10.8 | -5.8 | 6 |
