The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Guadalupe FC at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Guadalupe FC Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalupe FC | 36.6% | 50.5% | -13.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 33.8% | 23.9% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Guadalupe FC's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Guadalupe FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Guadalupe FC by 13.9 percentage points (50.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 33.8%
- xG · Guadalupe FC 1.33 — Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.27
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guadalupe FC 1.76 · Draw 3.47 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3.71
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 50.5% · Draw 25.6% · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guadalupe FC 1.76 · Draw 3.47 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3.71
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 50.5% · Draw 25.6% · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
30/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Guadalupe FC 2–2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.2278,
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{
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},
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"alert_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.87,
"hero_label": "Guadalupe FC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"market_team": "Guadalupe FC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Guadalupe FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2523,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalupe FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalupe FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalupe FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Guadalupe FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1601447 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2278,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3558,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 68,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.87,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"steam_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2523,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalupe FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalupe FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalupe FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Guadalupe FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1601447 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2278,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3558,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guadalupe FC 1.33 xG vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.27 \u2192 Guadalupe FC 36.6%",
"Market: Guadalupe FC ~50.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guadalupe FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.87,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Guadalupe FC",
"market_prob": 50.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.04,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.83,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"market_prob": 23.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.14,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.14,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Guadalupe FC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.46,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Guadalupe FC\u0027s win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guadalupe FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 68,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Guadalupe FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guadalupe FC 1.33 xG vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.27 \u2192 Guadalupe FC 36.6%",
"Market: Guadalupe FC ~50.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds \u2191 +13.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guadalupe FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.87,
"hero_label": "Guadalupe FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds lengthened \u2191 +13.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Guadalupe FC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Guadalupe FC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Guadalupe FC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Guadalupe FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Guadalupe FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.87,
"edge_pp": -13.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Guadalupe FC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.04,
"edge_pp": 4.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.83,
"edge_pp": 9.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"market_prob_pct": 23.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guadalupe FC (50.5%).",
"However, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.3%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Guadalupe FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (13.3%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.71",
"3.35",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.74 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 12m",
"pick_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.71,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds \u2191 +13.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds \u2191 +13.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pitbulls-santa-barbara-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"away_team_id": 26343,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26343.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"away_team_public_id": "48x3Vy5yQwqNOS",
"away_team_slug": "pitbulls-santa-barbara-fc",
"country_code": "CR",
"country_display_name": "Costa-Rica",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cr.svg",
"country_id": 37,
"country_name": "Costa-Rica",
"fixture_id": 1601447,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Costa-Rica",
"home_team_display_name": "Guadalupe FC",
"home_team_id": 821,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/821.webp",
"home_team_name": "Guadalupe FC",
"home_team_public_id": "3VWNtfkJ6g24gE",
"home_team_slug": "guadalupe-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guadalupe-fc",
"league_country": "Costa-Rica",
"league_country_display": "Costa-Rica",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Ascenso de Costa Rica",
"league_id": 163,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/163.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Ascenso de Costa Rica",
"league_public_id": "2Nk1UOPRWlgKbk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 19:00:00",
"public_id": "210iH4nORrGBjn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Coyella Fonseca"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2558,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0187,
"implied_prob": 0.2394,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2394,
"draw": 0.256,
"home": 0.5046
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2645
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2818,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.256,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2394,
"draw": 0.256,
"home": 0.5046
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2674
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4752,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.2278,
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2394,
"draw": 0.256,
"home": 0.5046
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4388
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": 0.068,
"ev": 0.2523,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": 0.0288,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.2022,
"ev": -0.3559,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.221,
"alpha_yes": 0.2431,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0114,
"edge_yes": -0.0114,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0445,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0816,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0916,
"implied_no": 0.4436,
"implied_yes": 0.5564,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0816,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5539
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4458,
"p_final_yes": 0.5539,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2287,
"alpha_under": 0.2079,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.96,
"edge_over": -0.0515,
"edge_under": 0.0515,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1038,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0633,
"implied_over": 0.5335,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5326,
"implied_under": 0.4665,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4674,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.521
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4779
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.521,
"p_final_under": 0.4779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2523,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2523,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalupe FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalupe FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalupe FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Guadalupe FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1601447 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalupe FC).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2278,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3558,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.2278,
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Guadalupe FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0026,
"market_prob": 0.4432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0816,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4458
},
"p_final": 0.4458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0816,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5539
}
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4436,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4674,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5326,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.521
},
"p_final": 0.4779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0633,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4779
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0515,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1601447,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"home": "Guadalupe FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2278,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5046,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3558,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1601447,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T19:00:28.485521+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Ascenso de Costa Rica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserrí FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Santa Ana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococí | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | CS Uruguay | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserrí FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Santa Ana | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Cariari Pococí | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | CS Uruguay | 9 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
