The model missed the final outcome (Täfteå win 1–2).
The model had projected Lucksta at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Lucksta Täfteå ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucksta | 35.2% | 33.4% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.4% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Täfteå | 35.2% | 42.1% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Täfteå's win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Täfteå win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Täfteå. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lucksta by 7.0 percentage points (42.2% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lucksta 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Täfteå 35.2%
- xG · Lucksta 1.30 — Täfteå 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lucksta 2.66 · Draw 3.64 · Täfteå 2.11
- Implied 1X2 · Lucksta 33.4% · Draw 24.4% · Täfteå 42.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lucksta 2.66 · Draw 3.64 · Täfteå 2.11
- Implied 1X2 · Lucksta 33.4% · Draw 24.4% · Täfteå 42.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Täfteå win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.11
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Täfteå win · Lucksta 1–2 Täfteå
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bfad6b9608028309386e14c1423f2034ed074209c4d97987570f87acd7f9e8ae",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or T\u00e4fte\u00e5 and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lucksta",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3343,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.66
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.66,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Lucksta Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.99,
"market_odds": 2.66,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -2.4,
"value_pct": -6.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Lucksta or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Lucksta or T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Lucksta or T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Lucksta"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.7,
"implied_prob": 27.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.64
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.14,
"draw": 24.43,
"home": 33.43
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 11:02:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 10:32:56",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Lucksta",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.43,
"gap_pp": 1.75,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.43,
"gap_pp": 5.22,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.14,
"gap_pp": -6.97,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.43,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.64,
"early": 3.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.43,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.14,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.5,
"ev": 0.134,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.3044,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6596
},
"p_final": 0.3306,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5385,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0182,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3306
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 70.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.7094,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10788.46,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0863,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0134,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.2995,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0863,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.313
},
"p_final": 0.313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3832,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0486,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1278,
"implied_prob": 0.7005,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.671
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5015,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 50.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.5015,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10451.35,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0904,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0583,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Lucksta",
"sort_key": 1785.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"alert_team": "Lucksta",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.97,
"hero_label": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"market_team": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Lucksta",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lucksta at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lucksta as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lucksta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.97,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"steam_team": "Lucksta",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lucksta at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lucksta as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lucksta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lucksta 1.30 xG vs T\u00e4fte\u00e5 1.30 \u2192 Lucksta 35.2%",
"Market: T\u00e4fte\u00e5 ~33.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Lucksta odds \u2191 +2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lucksta, but the market has moved away from Lucksta.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.74,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Lucksta",
"market_prob": 33.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"market_prob": 42.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.32,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.32,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.42,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.42,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"market_prob_pct": 42.14,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lucksta"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates T\u00e4fte\u00e5\u0027s win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lucksta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lucksta 1.30 xG vs T\u00e4fte\u00e5 1.30 \u2192 Lucksta 35.2%",
"Market: T\u00e4fte\u00e5 ~33.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Lucksta odds \u2191 +2.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lucksta, but the market has moved away from Lucksta.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.97,
"hero_label": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Lucksta odds lengthened \u2191 +2.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Lucksta has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on T\u00e4fte\u00e5. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on T\u00e4fte\u00e5. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Lucksta has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices T\u00e4fte\u00e5 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Lucksta has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices T\u00e4fte\u00e5 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.74,
"edge_pp": 1.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lucksta",
"market_prob_pct": 33.43,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.22,
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.43,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.97,
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"market_prob_pct": 42.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers T\u00e4fte\u00e5 (33.4%).",
"Lucksta odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.2%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lucksta, Market \u2192 T\u00e4fte\u00e5, while Lucksta odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.39,
"closing_odds": 2.11,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.39,
"entry_odds": 2.11,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Lucksta (2.2%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (5/8).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.66",
"2.48",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.71 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Lucksta",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.66,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,15.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Lucksta",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Lucksta while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lucksta",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Lucksta",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Lucksta",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "taftea",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"away_team_id": 12592,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12592.webp",
"away_team_name": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"away_team_public_id": "5fJ1ZIQLYeQpvV",
"away_team_slug": "taftea",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1601040,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Lucksta",
"home_team_id": 18999,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18999.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lucksta",
"home_team_public_id": "2ojSA7OVWveU8K",
"home_team_slug": "lucksta",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lucksta",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Division 2 - Norrland",
"league_id": 594,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/594.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - Norrland",
"league_public_id": "23zEvw1ORju8vy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 11:00:00",
"public_id": "61zJdCBEeXUbFQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.403,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.17,
"implied_prob": 0.4214,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4214,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3343
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3934
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2765,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0583,
"implied_prob": 0.2443,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4214,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3343
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2587
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4382,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4214,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3343
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.342
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.1222,
"ev": -0.2578,
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": 0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0863,
"alpha_yes": 0.1898,
"best_no_odd": 3.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1542,
"edge_yes": -0.1542,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5015,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0486,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1278,
"implied_no": 0.3008,
"implied_yes": 0.6992,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0863,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.313
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1278,
"implied_prob": 0.7005,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.671
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.313,
"p_final_yes": 0.671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1682,
"alpha_under": 0.1223,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.3,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.97,
"edge_over": -0.2132,
"edge_under": 0.2132,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1425,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0182,
"implied_over": 0.6952,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6956,
"implied_under": 0.3048,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3044,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6596
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3306
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6596,
"p_final_under": 0.3306,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7094,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lucksta at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lucksta as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lucksta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +70.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +70.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +70.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+70.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lucksta, but the model still strongly favours Lucksta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lucksta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0863,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0134,
"market_prob": 0.2995,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0863,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.313
},
"p_final": 0.313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0486,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1898,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1278,
"implied_prob": 0.7005,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.671
}
},
"edge": 0.1542,
"ev": 0.5015,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"market_prob": 0.3044,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6596
},
"p_final": 0.3306,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0182,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1223,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3306
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2132,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3048,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1601040,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5015,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5015,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "T\u00e4fte\u00e5",
"home": "Lucksta"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3048,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0642,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-6.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1601040,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T11:02:18.116654+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Lucksta & Täfteå!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Division 2 - Norrland — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| 6 | Team Thoren | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Täfteå | 12 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 32 | 14 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Gottne | 12 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 23 |
| 4 | Skellefteå | 12 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 27 |
| 5 | Lucksta | 12 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 23 |
| 7 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Team Thoren | 12 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 11 |
| 11 | Fransta | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 | Boden | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 17 |
| 13 | Storfors | 12 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 8 |
| 14 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 10 | 38 | -28 | 4 |
