The model missed the final outcome (Mashujaa win 2–1).
The model had projected Singida Fountain Gate at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Singida Fountain Gate Mashujaa ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mashujaa | 32.4% | 22.1% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.3% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Singida Fountain Gate | 38.0% | 49.6% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Singida Fountain Gate's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Mashujaa win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Singida Fountain Gate than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Singida Fountain Gate; match finished Mashujaa
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Singida Fountain Gate by 11.6 percentage points (49.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mashujaa 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Singida Fountain Gate 38.0%
- xG · Mashujaa 1.24 — Singida Fountain Gate 1.36
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mashujaa 3.45 · Draw 2.90 · Singida Fountain Gate 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · Mashujaa 25.8% · Draw 30.6% · Singida Fountain Gate 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mashujaa 4.07 · Draw 3.18 · Singida Fountain Gate 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Mashujaa 22.1% · Draw 28.3% · Singida Fountain Gate 49.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mashujaa win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
41/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mashujaa win · Mashujaa 2–1 Singida Fountain Gate
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"ev": -0.2055,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Singida Fountain Gate at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Singida Fountain Gate as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Singida Fountain Gate \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600772 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3117,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.45454545454545453,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.64,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Mashujaa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3175,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Singida Fountain Gate at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Singida Fountain Gate as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Singida Fountain Gate \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600772 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3117,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mashujaa 1.24 xG vs Singida Fountain Gate 1.36 \u2192 Singida Fountain Gate 38.0%",
"Market: Singida Fountain Gate ~49.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Mashujaa +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Singida Fountain Gate with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 10.31,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Mashujaa",
"market_prob": 22.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.33,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"market_prob": 49.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.23,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.23,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"market_prob_pct": 49.65,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mashujaa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Singida Fountain Gate\u0027s win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Singida Fountain Gate \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mashujaa 1.24 xG vs Singida Fountain Gate 1.36 \u2192 Singida Fountain Gate 38.0%",
"Market: Singida Fountain Gate ~49.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Mashujaa +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Singida Fountain Gate with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.64,
"hero_label": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Singida Fountain Gate than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Singida Fountain Gate than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Singida Fountain Gate than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Singida Fountain Gate more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Singida Fountain Gate (pricing gap 11.6 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Singida Fountain Gate higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 10.31,
"edge_pp": 10.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mashujaa",
"market_prob_pct": 22.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.33,
"edge_pp": 1.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.64,
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"market_prob_pct": 49.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Singida Fountain Gate than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Singida Fountain Gate (49.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Singida Fountain Gate, Market \u2192 Singida Fountain Gate, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/11",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Mashujaa",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "Mashujaa",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "singida-fountain-gate",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"away_team_id": 24353,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24353.webp",
"away_team_name": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"away_team_public_id": "5cH7y1ebQ4qLV1",
"away_team_slug": "singida-fountain-gate",
"country_code": "TZ",
"country_display_name": "Tanzania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tz.svg",
"country_id": 152,
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"fixture_id": 1600772,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Tanzania",
"home_team_display_name": "Mashujaa",
"home_team_id": 22176,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22176.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mashujaa",
"home_team_public_id": "55vSmm6t2i2AtW",
"home_team_slug": "mashujaa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mashujaa",
"league_country": "Tanzania",
"league_country_display": "Tanzania",
"league_display_name": "Ligi Kuu Bara",
"league_id": 567,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/567.webp",
"league_name": "Ligi Kuu Bara",
"league_public_id": "3GDHnJVQDu3Mfa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5usnTvx7UNasMd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kigoma",
"venue_name": "Lake Tanganyika Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4954,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0576,
"ev": -0.2055,
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4965,
"draw": 0.2826,
"home": 0.2208
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.439
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.294,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0888,
"implied_prob": 0.2826,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4965,
"draw": 0.2826,
"home": 0.2208
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2865
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 4.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.2208,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4965,
"draw": 0.2826,
"home": 0.2208
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2382
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.1721,
"ev": -0.3116,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.07,
"edge": 0.078,
"ev": 0.3175,
"implied_prob": 0.2457,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2127,
"alpha_yes": 0.1933,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0923,
"edge_yes": 0.0923,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2111,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1258,
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0563,
"implied_no": 0.5483,
"implied_yes": 0.4517,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.5498,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5298
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.015,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4502,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4683
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5298,
"p_final_yes": 0.4683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1616,
"alpha_under": 0.2223,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.375,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.49,
"edge_over": 0.0951,
"edge_under": -0.0951,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0474,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1164,
"implied_over": 0.3869,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3855,
"implied_under": 0.6131,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6145,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1616,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4011
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.6145,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.593
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4011,
"p_final_under": 0.593,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3175,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3175,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Singida Fountain Gate at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Singida Fountain Gate as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Singida Fountain Gate \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +32% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600772 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Singida Fountain Gate).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +32% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3117,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0576,
"ev": -0.2055,
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Singida Fountain Gate"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.015,
"edge": 0.0181,
"market_prob": 0.4502,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2127,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.5498,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5298
},
"p_final": 0.4683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0563,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.015,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4502,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4683
}
},
"edge": 0.0923,
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4517,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1616,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.3855,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1616,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.3855,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4011
},
"p_final": 0.4011,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0474,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.6145,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.593
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0951,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1600772,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Singida Fountain Gate",
"home": "Mashujaa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077466,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4517,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4965,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3117,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1600772,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T12:59:21.550379+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligi Kuu Bara — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba SC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Geita Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kitayosce | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Namungo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Simba SC | 6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Azam FC | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Geita Gold | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Kitayosce | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Namungo | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
| 16 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
