AI correctly predicted the Colchagua CD win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Colchagua CD Colchagua CD ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Colchagua CD win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Colchagua CD 1.32 — Provincial Osorno 1.28
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colchagua CD win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colchagua CD win · Colchagua CD 2–0 Provincial Osorno
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "0a9225d47c61c3c2b400f30c48ff2c5b848799dc1215f15988f054d9fdbe995d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Provincial Osorno and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Provincial Osorno"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Colchagua CD",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.021,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.382,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Colchagua CD Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.62,
"market_odds": 2.4,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -5.6,
"value_pct": -13.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Colchagua CD or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Colchagua CD or Provincial Osorno",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Provincial Osorno",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Colchagua CD or Provincial Osorno",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Colchagua CD"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -13.4,
"implied_prob": 41.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Colchagua CD Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.4
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Provincial Osorno",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.33,
"draw": 28.47,
"home": 38.2
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 18:59:37",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 18:30:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Colchagua CD",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.2,
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.47,
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.33,
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.47,
"gap_pp": 3.73,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.53,
"gap_pp": -3.73,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.2,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.47,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.75,
"early": 2.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.33,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.11,
"early": 2.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.47,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.53,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.2,
"ev": -0.09,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.28,
"market_prob": 0.1374,
"market_prob_pct": 13.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"p_final": 0.4477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0122,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0599,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0363,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.67,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4895
},
"p_final": 0.5105,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0081,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5105
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0083,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5206.64,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1053,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.5,
"text": "-10.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0719,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Colchagua CD",
"sort_key": 1782.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"alert_team": "Colchagua CD",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.09,
"hero_label": "Colchagua CD",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"market_team": "Colchagua CD",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Colchagua CD",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colchagua CD at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colchagua CD as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colchagua CD",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1053,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.09,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.09,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"steam_team": "Colchagua CD",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colchagua CD at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colchagua CD as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colchagua CD",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1053,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colchagua CD 1.32 xG vs Provincial Osorno 1.28 \u2192 Colchagua CD 36.1%",
"Market: Colchagua CD ~38.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Colchagua CD odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Colchagua CD, but the market has moved away from Colchagua CD.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Colchagua CD",
"market_prob": 38.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.18,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Provincial Osorno",
"market_prob": 33.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.16,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.16,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.28,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Colchagua CD",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Colchagua CD"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.09,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colchagua CD",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colchagua CD 1.32 xG vs Provincial Osorno 1.28 \u2192 Colchagua CD 36.1%",
"Market: Colchagua CD ~38.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Colchagua CD odds \u2191 +4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Colchagua CD, but the market has moved away from Colchagua CD.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.09,
"hero_label": "Colchagua CD",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Colchagua CD odds lengthened \u2191 +4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Colchagua CD (\u2191 +4.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.09,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Colchagua CD",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.09,
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Colchagua CD",
"market_prob_pct": 38.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.18,
"edge_pp": 1.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.91,
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Provincial Osorno",
"market_prob_pct": 33.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Colchagua CD (38.2%).",
"Colchagua CD odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.3%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Colchagua CD, Market \u2192 Colchagua CD, while Colchagua CD odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
"closing_odds": 2.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.67,
"entry_odds": 2.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Colchagua CD (swing 2.47 \u2192 2.27 \u2192 2.40) \u2014 net 4.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.35",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.47 \u2192 2.27 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 50m",
"pick_team": "Colchagua CD",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Colchagua CD",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Colchagua CD while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Colchagua CD",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Colchagua CD",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Colchagua CD",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "provincial-osorno",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Provincial Osorno",
"away_team_id": 5643,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5643.webp",
"away_team_name": "Provincial Osorno",
"away_team_public_id": "2jJNS3P7BfGxGW",
"away_team_slug": "provincial-osorno",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1600716,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "Colchagua CD",
"home_team_id": 5633,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5633.webp",
"home_team_name": "Colchagua CD",
"home_team_public_id": "3WWYPFl6hhfJNL",
"home_team_slug": "colchagua",
"ht.home_team_slug": "colchagua",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n de Chile",
"league_id": 711,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/711.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n de Chile",
"league_public_id": "3kq0Z17AmxzSEP",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 19:00:00",
"public_id": "47kyqmbPcv7ewf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4439,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.2847,
"home": 0.382
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3374
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2946,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0035,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.2847,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.2847,
"home": 0.382
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2882
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4358,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3333,
"draw": 0.2847,
"home": 0.382
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3728
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0557,
"ev": -0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2103,
"alpha_yes": 0.2103,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0428,
"edge_yes": 0.0428,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1043,
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"implied_no": 0.4978,
"implied_yes": 0.5022,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4895
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5105
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4895,
"p_final_yes": 0.5105,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2103,
"alpha_under": 0.2314,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0416,
"edge_under": -0.0416,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0599,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_over": 0.4404,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4385,
"implied_under": 0.5596,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5615,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4477,
"p_final_under": 0.5514,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colchagua CD at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colchagua CD as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colchagua CD",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Colchagua CD, but the model still strongly favours Colchagua CD.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1053,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Colchagua CD"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4895
},
"p_final": 0.5105,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5105
}
},
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.5022,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"market_prob": 0.4385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4477
},
"p_final": 0.4477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0599,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5514
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0416,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1600716,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Provincial Osorno",
"home": "Colchagua CD"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1053,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.382,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1338,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1600716,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T18:59:39.037802+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Colchagua CD & Provincial Osorno!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Segunda División de Chile — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua CD | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trasandino | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Santiago City | 12 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Concón National | 12 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Linares Unido | 12 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Colchagua CD | 12 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | Colina | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | General Velásquez | 12 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
