The model missed the final outcome (Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 win 1–0).
The model had projected Lech Poznań Sub-19 at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Lech Poznań Sub-19 Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 | 32.4% | 26.9% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.2% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Lech Poznań Sub-19 | 38.0% | 50.8% | -12.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Lech Poznań Sub-19's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Lech Poznań Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Lech Poznań Sub-19; match finished Raków Częstochowa Sub-19
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lech Poznań Sub-19 by 12.8 percentage points (50.8% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Lech Poznań Sub-19 38.0%
- xG · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 1.24 — Lech Poznań Sub-19 1.36
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 3.30 · Draw 4.00 · Lech Poznań Sub-19 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 26.9% · Draw 22.2% · Lech Poznań Sub-19 50.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 3.30 · Draw 4.00 · Lech Poznań Sub-19 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 26.9% · Draw 22.2% · Lech Poznań Sub-19 50.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
35/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 win · Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 1–0 Lech Poznań Sub-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2192,
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],
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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},
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2192,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2192,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19 1.24 xG vs Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 1.36 \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 38.0%",
"Market: Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 ~50.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"market_prob": 26.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.36,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.81,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"market_prob": 50.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.31,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.31,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 50.82,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19\u0027s win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19 1.24 xG vs Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 1.36 \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 38.0%",
"Market: Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 ~50.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.81,
"hero_label": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 (pricing gap 12.8 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.44,
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 26.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.36,
"edge_pp": 7.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.81,
"edge_pp": -12.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 50.82,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 (50.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19, Market \u2192 Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"closing_odds": 1.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.14,
"entry_odds": 1.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lech-poznan-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 7958,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7958.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "0mLZjfh7z0mzs7",
"away_team_slug": "lech-poznan-u19",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1599222,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 20594,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20594.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "1Ut9UOOIs69Ecd",
"home_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa-u19",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Juvenil Central de Polonia",
"league_id": 676,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/676.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Juvenil Central de Polonia",
"league_public_id": "2cr5dtvIPlsE13",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 09:00:00",
"public_id": "093rqeEUZUaGyl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4849,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.062,
"ev": -0.2192,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5082,
"draw": 0.2223,
"home": 0.2695
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4462
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1779,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0583,
"implied_prob": 0.2223,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5082,
"draw": 0.2223,
"home": 0.2695
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2354
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2756,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5082,
"draw": 0.2223,
"home": 0.2695
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2844
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.1911,
"ev": -0.3344,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.1838,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.0207,
"ev": 0.0683,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1539,
"alpha_yes": 0.2117,
"best_no_odd": 2.59,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0931,
"edge_yes": -0.0931,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0529,
"ev_yes": -0.2275,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1195,
"implied_no": 0.3629,
"implied_yes": 0.6371,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1539,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.3595,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3744
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2117,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.6405,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6201
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3744,
"p_final_yes": 0.6201,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1884,
"alpha_under": 0.137,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.52,
"edge_over": -0.1562,
"edge_under": 0.1562,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1382,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0409,
"implied_over": 0.6382,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6412,
"implied_under": 0.3618,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3588,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1382,
"implied_prob": 0.6412,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6112
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.137,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.3588,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3806
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6112,
"p_final_under": 0.3806,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2192,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.062,
"ev": -0.2192,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0149,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.3595,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3744
},
"p_final": 0.3744,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0529,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.6405,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6201
}
},
"edge": 0.0931,
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.137,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.3588,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1382,
"implied_prob": 0.6412,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6112
},
"p_final": 0.3806,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0409,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.137,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.3588,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3806
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1562,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3618,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1599222,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lech Pozna\u0144 Sub-19",
"home": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129521,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3618,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2192,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3345,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1599222,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:00:08.279334+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Juvenil Central de Polonia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Varsovia Sub-19 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Śląsk Wrocław Sub-19 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków Sub-19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Talent Warszawa Sub-19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Miedź Legnica Sub-19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin Sub-19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia Sub-19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań Sub-19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Arkonia Sub-19 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Górnik Zabrze Sub-19 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Stal Rzeszów Sub-19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Korona Kielce Sub-19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Polonia Varsovia Sub-19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia Sub-19 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia Sub-19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Varsovia Sub-19 | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Raków Częstochowa Sub-19 | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Talent Warszawa Sub-19 | 8 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 12 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków Sub-19 | 7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Śląsk Wrocław Sub-19 | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia Sub-19 | 7 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin Sub-19 | 7 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Polonia Varsovia Sub-19 | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań Sub-19 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Arka Gdynia Sub-19 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Miedź Legnica Sub-19 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Górnik Zabrze Sub-19 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Arkonia Sub-19 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce Sub-19 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Stal Rzeszów Sub-19 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia Sub-19 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 6 |
