The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Académico Viseu Sub-23 at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Académico Viseu Sub-23 Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP Sub-23 | 29.2% | 38.9% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.3% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Académico Viseu Sub-23 | 41.4% | 32.9% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sporting CP Sub-23's win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Sub-23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Académico Viseu Sub-23 by 9.6 percentage points (51.0% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sporting CP Sub-23 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Académico Viseu Sub-23 41.4%
- xG · Sporting CP Sub-23 1.17 — Académico Viseu Sub-23 1.43
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sporting CP Sub-23 2.36 · Draw 3.24 · Académico Viseu Sub-23 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Sporting CP Sub-23 38.9% · Draw 28.3% · Académico Viseu Sub-23 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sporting CP Sub-23 2.36 · Draw 3.24 · Académico Viseu Sub-23 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Sporting CP Sub-23 38.9% · Draw 28.3% · Académico Viseu Sub-23 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sporting CP Sub-23 2–2 Académico Viseu Sub-23
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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}
},
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},
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},
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},
{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"alert_team": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.6,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
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"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1598690 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.6,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.17,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.17 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"steam_team": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1598690 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sporting CP Sub-23 1.17 xG vs Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 1.43 \u2192 Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 41.4%",
"Market: Sporting CP Sub-23 ~32.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sporting CP Sub-23 \u2193 -5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23, but sharp money moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"market_prob": 38.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.54,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"market_prob": 32.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.61,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.61,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"market_prob_pct": 38.85,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sporting CP Sub-23"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sporting CP Sub-23\u0027s win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.5,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sporting CP Sub-23 1.17 xG vs Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 1.43 \u2192 Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 41.4%",
"Market: Sporting CP Sub-23 ~32.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sporting CP Sub-23 \u2193 -5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23, but sharp money moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.6,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sporting CP Sub-23 odds shortened \u2193 -5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Sub-23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sporting CP Sub-23.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Sub-23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sporting CP Sub-23."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sporting CP Sub-23 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Sporting CP Sub-23 (\u2193 -5.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Sporting CP Sub-23."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sporting CP Sub-23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.6,
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"market_prob_pct": 38.85,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.06,
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.54,
"edge_pp": 8.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"market_prob_pct": 32.86,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sporting CP Sub-23.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sporting CP Sub-23 (32.9%).",
"Sporting CP Sub-23 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.9%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23, Market \u2192 Sporting CP Sub-23, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sporting CP Sub-23.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.37,
"closing_odds": 2.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.37,
"entry_odds": 2.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Sporting CP Sub-23 (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.55",
"2.46",
"2.36"
],
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 55m",
"pick_team": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.36,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.2",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.36"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Sporting CP Sub-23",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Market moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "academico-viseu-u23",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"away_team_id": 21718,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21718.webp",
"away_team_name": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"away_team_public_id": "1yLZdxiJWJoRGk",
"away_team_slug": "academico-viseu-u23",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1598690,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"home_team_id": 15470,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15470.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sporting CP Sub-23",
"home_team_public_id": "1WwjXS9T1ag0me",
"home_team_slug": "sporting-cp-u23",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sporting-cp-u23",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o U23",
"league_id": 701,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/701.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o U23",
"league_public_id": "1aNelfakQBOxux",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1XRnvwFyXbepfH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3926,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3286,
"draw": 0.283,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.362
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2952,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3286,
"draw": 0.283,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2861
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3854,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1703,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3286,
"draw": 0.283,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.3516
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0553,
"ev": 0.1542,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.4137
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.131,
"ev": -0.3092,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.2927
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2166,
"alpha_yes": 0.2383,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0261,
"edge_yes": -0.0261,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0098,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0748,
"ev_yes": -0.1073,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0957,
"implied_no": 0.4329,
"implied_yes": 0.5671,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4395
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2383,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5599
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4395,
"p_final_yes": 0.5599,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2345,
"alpha_under": 0.2132,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.785,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0364,
"edge_under": 0.0364,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0919,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0631,
"implied_over": 0.5184,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5169,
"implied_under": 0.4816,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2345,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5087
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4905
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5087,
"p_final_under": 0.4905,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1598690 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4395
},
"p_final": 0.4395,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2383,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5599
}
},
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": 0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4831,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2345,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5087
},
"p_final": 0.4905,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0631,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4905
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0364,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4816,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1598690,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4137,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2927
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Acad\u00e9mico Viseu Sub-23",
"home": "Sporting CP Sub-23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4816,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1598690,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T13:59:11.768043+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Revelação U23 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP Sub-23 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Académico Viseu Sub-23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Farense Sub-23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Estoril Sub-23 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga Sub-23 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Vizela Sub-23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Benfica Sub-23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Rio Ave Sub-23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente Sub-23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Famalicão Sub-23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Santa Clara Sub-23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Moreirense Sub-23 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Felgueiras Sub-23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | União Leiria Sub-23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Leixões Sub-23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Torreense Sub-23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Penafiel Sub-23 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 | Estrela Sub-23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Portimonense Sub-23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Marítimo Sub-23 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP Sub-23 | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Académico Viseu Sub-23 | 7 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Estoril Sub-23 | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Famalicão Sub-23 | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | Leixões Sub-23 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga Sub-23 | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Farense Sub-23 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Benfica Sub-23 | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Moreirense Sub-23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente Sub-23 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Penafiel Sub-23 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Vizela Sub-23 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Felgueiras Sub-23 | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 | Torreense Sub-23 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Rio Ave Sub-23 | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | União Leiria Sub-23 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Estrela Sub-23 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Marítimo Sub-23 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 19 | Portimonense Sub-23 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 20 | Santa Clara Sub-23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
