The model missed the final outcome (União Santarém win 1–2).
The model had projected Louletano at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Louletano União Santarém ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louletano | 36.1% | 39.8% | -3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.9% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| União Santarém | 34.2% | 28.3% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates União Santarém's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.3%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue União Santarém win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on União Santarém.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Louletano; match finished União Santarém
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Louletano by 6.0 percentage points (30.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Louletano 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · União Santarém 34.2%
- xG · Louletano 1.32 — União Santarém 1.28
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Louletano 2.33 · Draw 2.91 · União Santarém 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · Louletano 39.8% · Draw 31.9% · União Santarém 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Louletano 2.33 · Draw 2.91 · União Santarém 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · Louletano 39.8% · Draw 31.9% · União Santarém 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result União Santarém win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
União Santarém win · Louletano 1–2 União Santarém
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.109,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.9,
"text": "-10.9%"
},
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},
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"sort_key": 1795.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"alert_team": "Louletano",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.95,
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"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Louletano",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1423,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louletano at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louletano as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louletano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1591,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.95,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"steam_team": "Louletano",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1423,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louletano at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louletano as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louletano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1591,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Louletano 1.32 xG vs Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m 1.28 \u2192 Louletano 36.1%",
"Market: Louletano ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Louletano odds \u2191 +4.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Louletano, but the market has moved away from Louletano.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.71,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Louletano",
"market_prob": 39.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.24,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.95,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"market_prob": 28.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.87,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.87,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.97,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"market_prob_pct": 28.29,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Louletano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.3%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Louletano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Louletano 1.32 xG vs Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m 1.28 \u2192 Louletano 36.1%",
"Market: Louletano ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Louletano odds \u2191 +4.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Louletano, but the market has moved away from Louletano.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.95,
"hero_label": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Louletano odds lengthened \u2191 +4.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Louletano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m.",
"note": "Drift away from Louletano \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m.",
"However, Louletano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Louletano \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m.",
"At the same time, Louletano has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Louletano."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.0,
"lead": "The model rates Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.71,
"edge_pp": -3.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Louletano",
"market_prob_pct": 39.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.24,
"edge_pp": -2.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.95,
"edge_pp": 5.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"market_prob_pct": 28.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Louletano \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Louletano (39.8%).",
"Louletano odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.9%, 6/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Louletano, Market \u2192 Louletano, while Louletano odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.49,
"closing_odds": 3.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.49,
"entry_odds": 3.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Louletano (4.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.33",
"2.19",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.33 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 40m",
"pick_team": "Louletano",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.33,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,11.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/7 sportsbooks on Louletano",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Louletano",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Market moved away from Louletano while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Louletano",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Louletano",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Louletano",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uniao-santarem",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"away_team_id": 6369,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6369.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"away_team_public_id": "3wveuak2PJ742F",
"away_team_slug": "uniao-santarem",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1597770,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Louletano",
"home_team_id": 4758,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4758.webp",
"home_team_name": "Louletano",
"home_team_public_id": "0Vhmg52xzB2WKN",
"home_team_slug": "louletano",
"ht.home_team_slug": "louletano",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga 3",
"league_id": 865,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/865.webp",
"league_name": "Liga 3",
"league_public_id": "4oLVo6lezexDxy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1oHRrFeiqGO3Va",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Algarve"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2732,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0188,
"implied_prob": 0.2829,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2829,
"draw": 0.3189,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2992
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.435,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.1002,
"implied_prob": 0.3189,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2829,
"draw": 0.3189,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3092
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4248,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2829,
"draw": 0.3189,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3824
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": 0.0375,
"ev": 0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.91,
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.1367,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.0683,
"ev": -0.159,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2211,
"alpha_yes": 0.201,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0697,
"edge_yes": 0.0697,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1171,
"ev_yes": 0.0464,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0626,
"implied_no": 0.5247,
"implied_yes": 0.4753,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.526,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5103
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4883
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5103,
"p_final_yes": 0.4883,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1584,
"alpha_under": 0.2178,
"best_over_odd": 2.37,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.29,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.54,
"edge_over": 0.0787,
"edge_under": -0.0787,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1423,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.106,
"implied_over": 0.4033,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4021,
"implied_under": 0.5967,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5979,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.106,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5805
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4147,
"p_final_under": 0.5805,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1423,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1423,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1423,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1423,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louletano at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louletano as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louletano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Louletano, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1591,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Louletano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.474,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2211,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.526,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5103
},
"p_final": 0.4883,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0626,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.474,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4883
}
},
"edge": 0.0697,
"ev": 0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.4753,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.4021,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"p_final": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.106,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5805
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0787,
"ev": 0.1423,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1597770,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1423,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uni\u00e3o Santar\u00e9m",
"home": "Louletano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.048012,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1423,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4291845493562232,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1591,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597770,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:01:51.411200+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga 3 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Paredes | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | SC Covilhã | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Caldas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 9 | União Santarém | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 4 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mafra | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Atlético CP | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Varzim | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Fafe | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 6 | Oliveirense | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Louletano | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Leça | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Paredes | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | Vianense | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Vitória Guimarães B | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | SC Covilhã | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Caldas | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | União Santarém | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Vitória de Sernache | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 1 |
| 19 | São João Ver | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Trofense | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
