AI correctly predicted the Louletano win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Louletano Louletano ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louletano | 36.6% | 29.4% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.6% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 33.8% | 37.0% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Louletano's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Louletano win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Louletano.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Louletano more conservatively (29.5% vs model 36.6%, 7.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Louletano win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Louletano 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Lusitano Évora 1911 33.8%
- xG · Louletano 1.33 — Lusitano Évora 1911 1.27
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Louletano 3.15 · Draw 2.76 · Lusitano Évora 1911 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · Louletano 29.4% · Draw 33.6% · Lusitano Évora 1911 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Louletano 3.15 · Draw 2.76 · Lusitano Évora 1911 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · Louletano 29.4% · Draw 33.6% · Lusitano Évora 1911 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Louletano win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Louletano win · Louletano 1–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0122,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.3%",
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"side_label": "Louletano",
"sort_key": 1796.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.15,
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"market_prob_pct": 29.4,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Louletano",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louletano at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louletano as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louletano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.15,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louletano at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louletano as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louletano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Louletano 1.33 xG vs Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911 1.27 \u2192 Louletano 36.6%",
"Market: Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911 ~29.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Louletano, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.15,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Louletano",
"market_prob": 29.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.96,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.18,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911",
"market_prob": 36.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.78,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.78,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Louletano",
"market_prob_pct": 29.44,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Louletano\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Louletano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Louletano 1.33 xG vs Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911 1.27 \u2192 Louletano 36.6%",
"Market: Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911 ~29.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Louletano, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.15,
"hero_label": "Louletano",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Louletano.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Louletano.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Louletano.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Louletano",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.2,
"lead": "The model rates Louletano considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.15,
"edge_pp": 7.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Louletano",
"market_prob_pct": 29.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.96,
"edge_pp": -3.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.18,
"edge_pp": -3.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911",
"market_prob_pct": 36.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911 (29.4%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.3%, 5/5).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Louletano, Market \u2192 Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.75,
"closing_odds": 3.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.75,
"entry_odds": 3.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Draw (8.3%, 5/5) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.88",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.02 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 26m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.76,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,17.3 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -8.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -8.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911",
"away_team_id": 15207,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15207.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911",
"away_team_public_id": "2F8v5FFH8jzqKp",
"away_team_slug": "lusitano-evora-1911",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1597760,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Louletano",
"home_team_id": 4758,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4758.webp",
"home_team_name": "Louletano",
"home_team_public_id": "0Vhmg52xzB2WKN",
"home_team_slug": "louletano",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga 3",
"league_id": 865,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/865.webp",
"league_name": "Liga 3",
"league_public_id": "4oLVo6lezexDxy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0SJh0P4IqIJe8W",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Algarve"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4284,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3695,
"draw": 0.336,
"home": 0.2944
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3558
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4233,
"best_odd": 2.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.336,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3695,
"draw": 0.336,
"home": 0.2944
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3193
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2678,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.2944,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3695,
"draw": 0.336,
"home": 0.2944
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3136
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": -0.0609,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.76,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.1817,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0485,
"ev": 0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2162,
"alpha_yes": 0.1966,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0878,
"edge_yes": 0.0878,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1142,
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"implied_no": 0.5428,
"implied_yes": 0.4572,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5211
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4773
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5211,
"p_final_yes": 0.4773,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.153,
"alpha_under": 0.2104,
"best_over_odd": 2.54,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.49,
"edge_over": 0.0901,
"edge_under": -0.0901,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0424,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1106,
"implied_over": 0.3919,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3821,
"implied_under": 0.6081,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6179,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3973
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5969
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3973,
"p_final_under": 0.5969,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Louletano at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Louletano as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Louletano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Louletano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.2944,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Louletano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5211
},
"p_final": 0.4773,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4773
}
},
"edge": 0.0878,
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.153,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0424,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3973
},
"p_final": 0.3973,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0424,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2104,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5969
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0901,
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3919,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1597760,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2243,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lusitano \u00c9vora 1911",
"home": "Louletano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.075679,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3919,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1529,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597760,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T16:01:46.374671+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga 3 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Paredes | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | SC Covilhã | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Caldas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 9 | União Santarém | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 4 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mafra | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Atlético CP | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Varzim | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Fafe | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 6 | Oliveirense | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Louletano | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Leça | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Paredes | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | Vianense | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Vitória Guimarães B | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | SC Covilhã | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Paços de Ferreira | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Caldas | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | União Santarém | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Vitória de Sernache | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 1 |
| 19 | São João Ver | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Trofense | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
