The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Bracknell Town at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Bracknell Town Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gosport Borough | 32.4% | 45.8% | -13.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.3% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Bracknell Town | 38.0% | 28.9% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Gosport Borough's win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Gosport Borough than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Bracknell Town; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bracknell Town by 13.4 percentage points (51.4% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gosport Borough 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Bracknell Town 38.0%
- xG · Gosport Borough 1.24 — Bracknell Town 1.36
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gosport Borough 1.99 · Draw 3.53 · Bracknell Town 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Gosport Borough 45.4% · Draw 25.6% · Bracknell Town 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gosport Borough 2.00 · Draw 3.62 · Bracknell Town 3.17
- Implied 1X2 · Gosport Borough 45.8% · Draw 25.3% · Bracknell Town 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
11/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Gosport Borough 1–1 Bracknell Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "54b2045acf3316a33719c969f7c8ed86c99d49f01b8b72defa7c664348d68518",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Gosport Borough",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Gosport Borough"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bracknell Town",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0914,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.17
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.17,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bracknell Town Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.46,
"market_odds": 3.17,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 6.5,
"value_pct": 20.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gosport Borough or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gosport Borough or Bracknell Town",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bracknell Town",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Gosport Borough or Bracknell Town",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Bracknell Town"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.5,
"implied_prob": 31.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Bracknell Town Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 3.17
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Bracknell Town",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.9,
"draw": 25.3,
"home": 45.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-30 18:44:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-30 18:14:39",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gosport Borough",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.51,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.8,
"gap_pp": -13.43,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.3,
"gap_pp": 4.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.9,
"gap_pp": 9.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.51,
"gap_pp": -12.31,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.49,
"gap_pp": 12.31,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.38,
"implied_early_pct": 45.42,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.62,
"early": 3.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.3,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.3,
"implied_early_pct": 25.61,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.9,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.08,
"implied_early_pct": 28.97,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.51,
"implied_early_pct": 60.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.49,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.51,
"implied_early_pct": 40.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.3,
"ev": 0.1125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.9,
"market_prob": 0.1124,
"market_prob_pct": 11.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4058,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.1147,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"p_final": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.4,
"text": "-22.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1596,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0121,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3803,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1596,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3924
},
"p_final": 0.3924,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0921,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0602,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.6197,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6031
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1172,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.7,
"text": "+11.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1172,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10105.48,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.009,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.009,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bracknell Town",
"sort_key": 1797.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"alert_team": "Gosport Borough",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.41,
"hero_label": "Gosport Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"market_team": "Gosport Borough",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Bracknell Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bracknell Town at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bracknell Town as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bracknell Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31545741324921134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.41,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"steam_team": "Gosport Borough",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bracknell Town at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bracknell Town as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bracknell Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31545741324921134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gosport Borough 1.24 xG vs Bracknell Town 1.36 \u2192 Bracknell Town 38.0%",
"Market: Gosport Borough ~28.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Gosport Borough \u2193 -2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bracknell Town, but sharp money moved toward Gosport Borough.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.41,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Gosport Borough",
"market_prob": 45.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.11,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Bracknell Town",
"market_prob": 28.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.29,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.29,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gosport Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 45.8,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gosport Borough"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gosport Borough\u0027s win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bracknell Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gosport Borough 1.24 xG vs Bracknell Town 1.36 \u2192 Bracknell Town 38.0%",
"Market: Gosport Borough ~28.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Gosport Borough \u2193 -2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bracknell Town, but sharp money moved toward Gosport Borough.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.41,
"hero_label": "Gosport Borough",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gosport Borough odds shortened \u2193 -2.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gosport Borough than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gosport Borough.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gosport Borough than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gosport Borough."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gosport Borough more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Gosport Borough (\u2193 -2.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Gosport Borough."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gosport Borough",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gosport Borough higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.41,
"edge_pp": -13.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gosport Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 45.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.29,
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.11,
"edge_pp": 9.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bracknell Town",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gosport Borough.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gosport Borough (28.9%).",
"Gosport Borough has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.4%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bracknell Town, Market \u2192 Gosport Borough, Recent sharp money \u2192 Gosport Borough.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Gosport Borough (2.4%) \u2014 6/8 books shortening the line.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.05",
"2.02",
"1.99"
],
"display": "2.18 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Gosport Borough",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.18"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.0,
1.99,
2.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,15.0 37.3,18.0 56.0,15.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.99"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Gosport Borough",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Market moved toward Gosport Borough while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gosport Borough",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.4%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Gosport Borough",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Gosport Borough",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bracknell-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bracknell Town",
"away_team_id": 7619,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7619.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bracknell Town",
"away_team_public_id": "3Xg9dXhcDE54yN",
"away_team_slug": "bracknell-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1597364,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Gosport Borough",
"home_team_id": 7717,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7717.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gosport Borough",
"home_team_public_id": "5pqdzDIWi7pSXI",
"home_team_slug": "gosport-borough",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gosport-borough",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Sur del Sur",
"league_id": 60,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/60.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Sur del Sur",
"league_public_id": "4cMIwTdSTRAPR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-30 18:45:00",
"public_id": "1rZTVObGcJMsU8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gosport",
"venue_name": "Privett Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2589,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.289,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.458
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3126
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2807,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.289,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.458
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2651
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3594,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0483,
"ev": -0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.458,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.289,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.458
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.4097
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.0649,
"ev": 0.2057,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": 0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1763,
"ev": -0.3526,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1596,
"alpha_yes": 0.2194,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0729,
"edge_yes": -0.0729,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1172,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0602,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1135,
"implied_no": 0.3831,
"implied_yes": 0.6169,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1596,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3924
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.6197,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6031
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3924,
"p_final_yes": 0.6031,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2058,
"alpha_under": 0.1497,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.27,
"edge_over": -0.1107,
"edge_under": 0.1107,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1147,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0408,
"implied_over": 0.5927,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5942,
"implied_under": 0.4073,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4058,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.1147,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4226
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5711,
"p_final_under": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bracknell Town at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bracknell Town as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bracknell Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gosport Borough, but the model still strongly favours Bracknell Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31545741324921134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bracknell Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1596,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.3803,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1596,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3924
},
"p_final": 0.3924,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0602,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.6197,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6031
}
},
"edge": 0.0729,
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"market_prob": 0.4058,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.1147,
"implied_prob": 0.5942,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5711
},
"p_final": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.4058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1107,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4073,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1597364,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bracknell Town",
"home": "Gosport Borough"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4073,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.17,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31545741324921134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2056,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597364,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T18:44:45.222614+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Gosport Borough & Bracknell Town!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Non League Premier - Sur del Sur — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bath City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Taunton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Sholing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 21 | Malvern Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 | Taunton Town | 8 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Uxbridge | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Frome Town | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Malvern Town | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 |
| 10 | Bath City | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Gloucester City | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Poole Town | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Sholing | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 21 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
