The model missed the final outcome (Hitchin Town win 1–0).
The model had projected Leighton Town at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Leighton Town Hitchin Town ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hitchin Town | 31.9% | 35.2% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.3% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Leighton Town | 38.5% | 36.5% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Hitchin Town win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Leighton Town; match finished Hitchin Town
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hitchin Town win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:48 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hitchin Town 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Leighton Town 38.5%
- xG · Hitchin Town 1.23 — Leighton Town 1.37
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hitchin Town 2.57 · Draw 3.20 · Leighton Town 2.48
- Implied 1X2 · Hitchin Town 35.2% · Draw 28.3% · Leighton Town 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:48 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hitchin Town 2.57 · Draw 3.20 · Leighton Town 2.48
- Implied 1X2 · Hitchin Town 35.2% · Draw 28.3% · Leighton Town 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hitchin Town win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
83/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hitchin Town win · Hitchin Town 1–0 Leighton Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"alert_team": "Leighton Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.3,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 3.3,
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"label": "Agree",
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
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"execution_confidence": 89,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leighton Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leighton Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leighton Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0736,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.40322580645161293,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.28,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"steam_team": "Leighton Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leighton Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leighton Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leighton Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0736,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.40322580645161293,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hitchin Town 1.23 xG vs Leighton Town 1.37 \u2192 Leighton Town 38.5%",
"Market: Leighton Town ~36.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Leighton Town \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Leighton Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.28,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Hitchin Town",
"market_prob": 35.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.29,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.99,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Leighton Town",
"market_prob": 36.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.23,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.23,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hitchin Town",
"market_prob_pct": 35.22,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Leighton Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Leighton Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Leighton Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hitchin Town 1.23 xG vs Leighton Town 1.37 \u2192 Leighton Town 38.5%",
"Market: Leighton Town ~36.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Leighton Town \u2193 -7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Leighton Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.28,
"hero_label": "Hitchin Town",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Leighton Town odds shortened \u2193 -7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Leighton Town, with odds shortening by 7.7%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Leighton Town \u2014 odds shortened by 7.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Leighton Town, with odds shortening by 7.7%.",
"Buying interest on Leighton Town \u2014 odds shortened by 7.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Leighton Town has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.7%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Hitchin Town",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.28,
"edge_pp": -3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hitchin Town",
"market_prob_pct": 35.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.29,
"edge_pp": 1.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.99,
"edge_pp": 1.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Leighton Town",
"market_prob_pct": 36.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Leighton Town \u2014 odds shortened by 7.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Leighton Town (36.5%).",
"Leighton Town has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.7%, 4/8).",
"Leighton Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Leighton Town (swing 2.65 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.40) \u2014 net 7.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.50",
"2.40"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 30m",
"pick_team": "Leighton Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.6,
2.48,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Leighton Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Leighton Town",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Leighton Town",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Leighton Town",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "leighton-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Leighton Town",
"away_team_id": 8846,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8846.webp",
"away_team_name": "Leighton Town",
"away_team_public_id": "2w6CMJj0iUaUPv",
"away_team_slug": "leighton-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1596897,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Hitchin Town",
"home_team_id": 4682,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4682.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hitchin Town",
"home_team_public_id": "1gw2rnkvelUe70",
"home_team_slug": "hitchin-town",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hitchin-town",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Sur Central",
"league_id": 931,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/931.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Sur Central",
"league_public_id": "315nCh9kwH6D1R",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:45:00",
"public_id": "11W0NdE6guyWZZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4367,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.365,
"draw": 0.2828,
"home": 0.3522
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3736
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.365,
"draw": 0.2828,
"home": 0.3522
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4279,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1308,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.365,
"draw": 0.2828,
"home": 0.3522
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3382
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.1789,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2145,
"alpha_yes": 0.236,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0323,
"edge_yes": -0.0323,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0829,
"ev_yes": -0.1405,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1086,
"implied_no": 0.4237,
"implied_yes": 0.5763,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.125,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.4249,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4316
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5751,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5678
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4316,
"p_final_yes": 0.5678,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2317,
"alpha_under": 0.2107,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.93,
"edge_over": -0.0459,
"edge_under": 0.0459,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0994,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"implied_over": 0.5279,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5245,
"implied_under": 0.4721,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4755,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2317,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.5245,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5146
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4755,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4845
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5146,
"p_final_under": 0.4845,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Leighton Town at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Leighton Town as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Leighton Town",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Leighton Town).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0736,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.40322580645161293,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Leighton Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.125,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4249,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.125,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.4249,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4316
},
"p_final": 0.4316,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0829,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.5751,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5678
}
},
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.4755,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2317,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.5245,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5146
},
"p_final": 0.4845,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4755,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4845
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4721,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1596897,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Leighton Town",
"home": "Hitchin Town"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4721,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0736,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.40322580645161293,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1596897,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T18:48:21.522396+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Non League Premier - Sur Central — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 5 | Kettering Town | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Leiston | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Redditch United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Worcester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Leamington | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Hitchin Town | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 | Alvechurch | 8 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 | Bury Town | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Leiston | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Kettering Town | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Redditch United | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Leighton Town | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 8 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Leamington | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Hitchin Town | 8 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 | Stratford Town | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
| 21 | Worcester City | 8 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 |
