The model missed the final outcome (Eastbourne Borough win 2–1).
The model had projected Chatham Town at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Chatham Town Eastbourne Borough ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastbourne Borough | 28.4% | 38.5% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.9% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Chatham Town | 42.4% | 35.6% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Eastbourne Borough's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.4%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Eastbourne Borough win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Eastbourne Borough than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Chatham Town by 10.1 percentage points (52.5% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Eastbourne Borough 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Chatham Town 42.4%
- xG · Eastbourne Borough 1.15 — Chatham Town 1.45
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Eastbourne Borough 2.35 · Draw 3.49 · Chatham Town 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Eastbourne Borough 38.5% · Draw 25.9% · Chatham Town 35.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Eastbourne Borough 2.35 · Draw 3.49 · Chatham Town 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Eastbourne Borough 38.5% · Draw 25.9% · Chatham Town 35.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Eastbourne Borough win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.35
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Eastbourne Borough win · Eastbourne Borough 2–1 Chatham Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0262,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0262,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chatham Town",
"sort_key": 1793.45,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"alert_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.11,
"hero_label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"market_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Chatham Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chatham Town at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chatham Town as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chatham Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 68,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.11,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.45,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"steam_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chatham Town at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chatham Town as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chatham Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eastbourne Borough 1.15 xG vs Chatham Town 1.45 \u2192 Chatham Town 42.4%",
"Market: Eastbourne Borough ~35.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Eastbourne Borough odds \u2191 +11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chatham Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.11,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob": 38.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.77,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Chatham Town",
"market_prob": 35.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.12,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 38.48,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Eastbourne Borough"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Eastbourne Borough\u0027s win probability at 38.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 28.4%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chatham Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 68,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Chatham Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Eastbourne Borough 1.15 xG vs Chatham Town 1.45 \u2192 Chatham Town 42.4%",
"Market: Eastbourne Borough ~35.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Eastbourne Borough odds \u2191 +11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chatham Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.11,
"hero_label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Eastbourne Borough odds lengthened \u2191 +11.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Eastbourne Borough than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Eastbourne Borough.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Eastbourne Borough than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Eastbourne Borough."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Eastbourne Borough more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Eastbourne Borough (\u2191 +11.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Eastbourne Borough."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Eastbourne Borough higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.11,
"edge_pp": -10.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Eastbourne Borough",
"market_prob_pct": 38.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.35,
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.77,
"edge_pp": 6.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chatham Town",
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Eastbourne Borough.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Eastbourne Borough (35.6%).",
"However, Eastbourne Borough has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.9%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chatham Town, Market \u2192 Eastbourne Borough, while Eastbourne Borough odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.55,
"closing_odds": 2.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.55,
"entry_odds": 2.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Eastbourne Borough (11.9%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.23",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.40 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Eastbourne Borough",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Eastbourne Borough",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chatham-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chatham Town",
"away_team_id": 8737,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8737.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chatham Town",
"away_team_public_id": "2fZxdb7N8Q8cWX",
"away_team_slug": "chatham-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1595972,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"home_team_id": 4704,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4704.webp",
"home_team_name": "Eastbourne Borough",
"home_team_public_id": "16ANbaJGr5TAfb",
"home_team_slug": "eastbourne-borough",
"ht.home_team_slug": "eastbourne-borough",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Non League Premier - Isthmian",
"league_id": 58,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/58.webp",
"league_name": "Non League Premier - Isthmian",
"league_public_id": "5p6CYu3fPXwb1r",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0h56mCYlGzofkd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4044,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.356,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.3848
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.3834
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2851,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.356,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.3848
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.382,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0385,
"ev": -0.1861,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.356,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.3848
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.3463
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.4236
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": 0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.1415,
"ev": -0.3325,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.284
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1654,
"alpha_yes": 0.2274,
"best_no_odd": 2.29,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0512,
"edge_yes": -0.0512,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0557,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0665,
"ev_yes": -0.1538,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1055,
"implied_no": 0.4098,
"implied_yes": 0.5902,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1654,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0665,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4158
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2274,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1055,
"implied_prob": 0.5931,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.5808
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4158,
"p_final_yes": 0.5808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2203,
"alpha_under": 0.2003,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0735,
"edge_under": 0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1105,
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5555,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5553,
"implied_under": 0.4445,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4447,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5391,
"p_final_under": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chatham Town at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chatham Town as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chatham Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chatham Town).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Chatham Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1654,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.245,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.4069,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1654,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0665,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4158
},
"p_final": 0.4158,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0665,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2274,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1055,
"implied_prob": 0.5931,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.5808
}
},
"edge": 0.0512,
"ev": 0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"p_final": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0735,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4445,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1595972,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1189,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4236,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.284
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chatham Town",
"home": "Eastbourne Borough"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043113,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4445,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1595972,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T18:45:33.429147+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Non League Premier - Isthmian — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Welling United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Dartford | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Lewes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Leatherhead | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | St Albans City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Ramsgate | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Chatham Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Aveley | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Cray Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Maldon & Tiptree | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 17 | Cheshunt | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 18 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 8 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | Ramsgate | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Welling United | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | St Albans City | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Leatherhead | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Dulwich Hamlet | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Chatham Town | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Aveley | 8 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Three Bridges | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 5 |
| 10 | Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 11 | Lewes | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 13 | Dartford | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 14 | Cray Wanderers | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 |
| 15 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 8 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 5 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
