AI correctly predicted the Uskok Klis win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Uskok Klis Uskok Klis ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Zaprešić | 31.9% | 39.4% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.8% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Uskok Klis | 38.5% | 32.8% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Inter Zaprešić's win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Uskok Klis win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Inter Zaprešić. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Uskok Klis higher (45.9% vs model 38.5%, 7.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Uskok Klis win 2–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Inter Zaprešić 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Uskok Klis 38.5%
- xG · Inter Zaprešić 1.23 — Uskok Klis 1.37
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:22 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Inter Zaprešić 2.26 · Draw 3.20 · Uskok Klis 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Zaprešić 39.4% · Draw 27.8% · Uskok Klis 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Inter Zaprešić 2.26 · Draw 3.20 · Uskok Klis 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Zaprešić 39.4% · Draw 27.8% · Uskok Klis 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Uskok Klis win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Uskok Klis win · Inter Zaprešić 2–3 Uskok Klis
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
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],
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uskok Klis at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Uskok Klis as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uskok Klis",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uskok Klis at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uskok Klis as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uskok Klis",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 1.23 xG vs Uskok Klis 1.37 \u2192 Uskok Klis 38.5%",
"Market: Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 ~32.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Uskok Klis with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.43,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"market_prob": 39.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.77,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Uskok Klis",
"market_prob": 32.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.42,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.42,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"market_prob_pct": 39.37,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107\u0027s win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Uskok Klis",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 1.23 xG vs Uskok Klis 1.37 \u2192 Uskok Klis 38.5%",
"Market: Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 ~32.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Uskok Klis with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.43,
"hero_label": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.43,
"edge_pp": -7.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"market_prob_pct": 39.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.77,
"edge_pp": 1.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.66,
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uskok Klis",
"market_prob_pct": 32.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107 (32.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Uskok Klis, Market \u2192 Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.25,
"closing_odds": 2.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.25,
"entry_odds": 2.26,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uskok-klis",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Uskok Klis",
"away_team_id": 8589,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8589.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uskok Klis",
"away_team_public_id": "1oacXAGOLUhVTN",
"away_team_slug": "uskok-klis",
"country_code": "HR",
"country_display_name": "Croatia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_id": 39,
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1595224,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Croatia",
"home_team_display_name": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"home_team_id": 1020,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1020.webp",
"home_team_name": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107",
"home_team_public_id": "2g7mgpoikoX4OG",
"home_team_slug": "inter-zapresic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "inter-zapresic",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_country_display": "Croatia",
"league_display_name": "Segunda NL de Croacia",
"league_id": 946,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/946.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda NL de Croacia",
"league_public_id": "1iD1iE2Zm5fgAq",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:30:00",
"public_id": "5zZkjcUcDkKntS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.412,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3283,
"draw": 0.278,
"home": 0.3937
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3515
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.292,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3283,
"draw": 0.278,
"home": 0.3937
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2832
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3999,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.1773,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3283,
"draw": 0.278,
"home": 0.3937
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.364
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": 0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": -0.123,
"ev": -0.2779,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2164,
"alpha_yes": 0.238,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0242,
"edge_yes": -0.0242,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0196,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0713,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0929,
"implied_no": 0.4318,
"implied_yes": 0.5682,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.436
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.238,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0929,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5634
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.436,
"p_final_yes": 0.5634,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2343,
"alpha_under": 0.213,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0377,
"edge_under": 0.0377,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0935,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0642,
"implied_over": 0.5197,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5176,
"implied_under": 0.4803,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4824,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0935,
"implied_prob": 0.5176,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5093
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5093,
"p_final_under": 0.49,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0423,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uskok Klis at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uskok Klis as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uskok Klis",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107, but the model still strongly favours Uskok Klis.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4803,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Uskok Klis"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0055,
"market_prob": 0.4305,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.4305,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.436
},
"p_final": 0.436,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0713,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.238,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0929,
"implied_prob": 0.5695,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5634
}
},
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.4318,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.4824,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0935,
"implied_prob": 0.5176,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5093
},
"p_final": 0.49,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0642,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.49
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0377,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4803,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1595224,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uskok Klis",
"home": "Inter Zapre\u0161i\u0107"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0423,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1595224,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:31:04.425545+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda NL de Croacia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjelovar | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Uskok Klis | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Uljanik | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Trnje | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Križevci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Jarun | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Inter Zaprešić | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Grobničan Čavle | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Dugo Selo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Zagora | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lucko | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Slavonija Požega | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Solin | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Koprivnica | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Varteks Varaždin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjelovar | 5 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Uskok Klis | 6 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Zagora | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Uljanik | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | Jarun | 5 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 5 |
| 7 | Križevci | 6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Trnje | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 9 | Inter Zaprešić | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Grobničan Čavle | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Koprivnica | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
| 12 | Lucko | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Solin | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Dugo Selo | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Varteks Varaždin | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
