The model missed the final outcome (Ismaily SC win 2–3).
The model had projected Mega Sport at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Mega Sport Ismaily SC ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Sport | 36.1% | 28.7% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 34.8% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Ismaily SC | 34.2% | 36.5% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Mega Sport's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.7%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Ismaily SC win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mega Sport.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Mega Sport; match finished Ismaily SC
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mega Sport by 7.4 percentage points (28.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mega Sport 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ismaily SC 34.2%
- xG · Mega Sport 1.32 — Ismaily SC 1.28
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mega Sport 2.96 · Draw 2.65 · Ismaily SC 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Mega Sport 31.0% · Draw 34.6% · Ismaily SC 34.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mega Sport 3.23 · Draw 2.67 · Ismaily SC 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Mega Sport 28.7% · Draw 34.8% · Ismaily SC 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ismaily SC win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ismaily SC win · Mega Sport 2–3 Ismaily SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0087,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.1657,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Mega Sport",
"sort_key": 1797.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +81.8%",
"alert_team": "Mega Sport",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.39,
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"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"market_team": "Ismaily SC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Mega Sport",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mega Sport at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mega Sport as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mega Sport",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0087,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1657,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.39,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 81.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +81.8%",
"steam_team": "Mega Sport",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mega Sport at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mega Sport as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mega Sport",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0087,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1657,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mega Sport 1.32 xG vs Ismaily SC 1.28 \u2192 Mega Sport 36.1%",
"Market: Ismaily SC ~28.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Mega Sport odds \u2191 +81.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mega Sport, but the market has moved away from Mega Sport.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.39,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Mega Sport",
"market_prob": 28.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.1,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.29,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Ismaily SC",
"market_prob": 36.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.47,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.47,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.53,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.53,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mega Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 28.72,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Mega Sport"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Mega Sport\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.7%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mega Sport",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mega Sport 1.32 xG vs Ismaily SC 1.28 \u2192 Mega Sport 36.1%",
"Market: Ismaily SC ~28.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Mega Sport odds \u2191 +81.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Mega Sport, but the market has moved away from Mega Sport.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.39,
"hero_label": "Mega Sport",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Mega Sport odds lengthened \u2191 +81.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mega Sport.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mega Sport.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mega Sport.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mega Sport."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Mega Sport.",
"Recent line movement on Mega Sport (\u2191 +81.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Mega Sport."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Mega Sport",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.4,
"lead": "The model rates Mega Sport considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.39,
"edge_pp": 7.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mega Sport",
"market_prob_pct": 28.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.1,
"edge_pp": -5.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.29,
"edge_pp": -2.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ismaily SC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mega Sport.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ismaily SC (28.7%).",
"However, Mega Sport has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +81.8%, 7/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mega Sport, Market \u2192 Ismaily SC, while Mega Sport odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.96,
"closing_odds": 3.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.96,
"entry_odds": 3.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +81.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 81.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +70.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 70.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +68.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 68.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +67.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 67.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +40.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 40.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +81.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 81.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/7 books lengthened Mega Sport together (81.8% drift, score 89) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 81.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.23",
"2.44",
"1.65"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 1.64 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 40m",
"pick_team": "Mega Sport",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.64"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.65,
3.23,
2.96,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,3.1 56.0,2.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.65"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.65"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.23"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.65,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Mega Sport odds \u2191 +81.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Mega Sport",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Mega Sport odds \u2191 +81.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +81.8%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"summary": "Market moved away from Mega Sport while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Mega Sport",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +81.8%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"pick_team": "Mega Sport",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "Mega Sport",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ismaily-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ismaily SC",
"away_team_id": 1030,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1030.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ismaily SC",
"away_team_public_id": "0IYyY8MkZIqqpa",
"away_team_slug": "ismaily-sc",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1595143,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Mega Sport",
"home_team_id": 28011,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Mega Sport",
"home_team_public_id": "2Y25vg21R2xIYF",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga de Egipto",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga de Egipto",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 13:30:00",
"public_id": "098atCOAkuXiLq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4346,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.3653,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3653,
"draw": 0.3475,
"home": 0.2872
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3553
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4157,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1286,
"implied_prob": 0.3475,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3653,
"draw": 0.3475,
"home": 0.2872
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3264
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2668,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3653,
"draw": 0.3475,
"home": 0.2872
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3069
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.1303,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0779,
"ev": -0.2079,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": 0.0513,
"ev": 0.1658,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1972,
"alpha_yes": 0.1434,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.27,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1353,
"edge_yes": 0.1353,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_yes": 0.2372,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.035,
"implied_no": 0.5903,
"implied_yes": 0.4097,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1972,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5638
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4289
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5638,
"p_final_yes": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.136,
"alpha_under": 0.1869,
"best_over_odd": 3.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.905,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1647,
"edge_under": -0.1647,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.446,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0092,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1151,
"implied_over": 0.3173,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3189,
"implied_under": 0.6827,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6811,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"best_odd": 2.905,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0092,
"implied_prob": 0.3189,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.6811,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6506
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3411,
"p_final_under": 0.6506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.446,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.446,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mega Sport at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mega Sport as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mega Sport",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +44.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +44.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +44.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+44.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Mega Sport, but the model still strongly favours Mega Sport.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0087,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1657,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mega Sport"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.4094,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1972,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5638
},
"p_final": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.035,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4289
}
},
"edge": 0.1353,
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4097,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.905,
"edge": 0.0222,
"market_prob": 0.3189,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"best_odd": 2.905,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0092,
"implied_prob": 0.3189,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3411
},
"p_final": 0.3411,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0092,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1869,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.6811,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6506
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1647,
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3173,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1595143,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.446,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4097,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2372,
"implied_prob": 0.4097,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ismaily SC",
"home": "Mega Sport"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.15048,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.446,
"implied_prob": 0.3173,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0087,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2872,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1657,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+16.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1595143,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T13:30:08.134394+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga de Egipto — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Nasr SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tersana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tanta SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Proxy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Nasr SC | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tersana | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Proxy | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 |
