The model missed the final outcome (Itesalat win 1–0).
The model had projected La Viena FC at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 La Viena FC Itesalat ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itesalat | 27.9% | 38.5% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 31.8% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| La Viena FC | 42.9% | 29.7% | +13.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates La Viena FC's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.7%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Itesalat win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on La Viena FC.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on La Viena FC by 13.1 percentage points (29.8% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Itesalat 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · La Viena FC 42.9%
- xG · Itesalat 1.14 — La Viena FC 1.46
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Itesalat 2.41 · Draw 2.92 · La Viena FC 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Itesalat 38.5% · Draw 31.8% · La Viena FC 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Itesalat 2.41 · Draw 2.92 · La Viena FC 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Itesalat 38.5% · Draw 31.8% · La Viena FC 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Itesalat win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
11/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.12
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Itesalat win · Itesalat 1–0 La Viena FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0265,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": 0.0265,
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},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "La Viena FC",
"sort_key": 5221.2,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
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"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"alert_team": "Itesalat",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.13,
"hero_label": "La Viena FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.7,
"market_team": "Itesalat",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "La Viena FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4653,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Viena FC at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Viena FC as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Viena FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2973,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3379,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.13,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.14,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.14 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"steam_team": "Itesalat",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4653,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Viena FC at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Viena FC as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Viena FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2973,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3379,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Itesalat 1.14 xG vs La Viena FC 1.46 \u2192 La Viena FC 42.9%",
"Market: Itesalat ~29.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Itesalat odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean La Viena FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.56,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Itesalat",
"market_prob": 38.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.57,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.13,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "La Viena FC",
"market_prob": 29.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.13,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.13,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.83,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.83,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "La Viena FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.73,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Itesalat"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates La Viena FC\u0027s win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.7%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "La Viena FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.2,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "La Viena FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Itesalat 1.14 xG vs La Viena FC 1.46 \u2192 La Viena FC 42.9%",
"Market: Itesalat ~29.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Itesalat odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean La Viena FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.13,
"hero_label": "La Viena FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Itesalat odds lengthened \u2191 +15.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Itesalat has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on La Viena FC.",
"note": "Drift away from Itesalat \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on La Viena FC.",
"However, Itesalat has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Itesalat \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors La Viena FC more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Itesalat has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "La Viena FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.1,
"lead": "The model rates La Viena FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.56,
"edge_pp": -10.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Itesalat",
"market_prob_pct": 38.49,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.57,
"edge_pp": -2.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.13,
"edge_pp": 13.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "La Viena FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.73,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Itesalat \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Itesalat (29.7%).",
"However, Itesalat has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.0%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 La Viena FC, Market \u2192 Itesalat, while Itesalat odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.05,
"closing_odds": 3.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.05,
"entry_odds": 3.12,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Itesalat (15.0%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.41",
"2.21",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h 40m",
"pick_team": "Itesalat",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.41,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.41"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Itesalat",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Itesalat",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Itesalat",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Itesalat",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Itesalat",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "la-viena-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "La Viena FC",
"away_team_id": 16436,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16436.webp",
"away_team_name": "La Viena FC",
"away_team_public_id": "3q1QzoK57e8PmI",
"away_team_slug": "la-viena-fc",
"country_code": "EG",
"country_display_name": "Egypt",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
"country_id": 47,
"country_name": "Egypt",
"fixture_id": 1594849,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Egypt",
"home_team_display_name": "Itesalat",
"home_team_id": 18032,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18032.webp",
"home_team_name": "Itesalat",
"home_team_public_id": "07ZEy2KYIu08JA",
"home_team_slug": "itesalat",
"ht.home_team_slug": "itesalat",
"league_country": "Egypt",
"league_country_display": "Egypt",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga de Egipto",
"league_id": 887,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga de Egipto",
"league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 13:30:00",
"public_id": "5E4naSnTfw4WoM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Telecom Egypt Club Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2408,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2973,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2973,
"draw": 0.3177,
"home": 0.3849
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.329
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4327,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2973,
"draw": 0.3177,
"home": 0.3849
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.3066
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3785,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0401,
"ev": -0.1689,
"implied_prob": 0.3849,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2973,
"draw": 0.3177,
"home": 0.3849
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.3449
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": 0.1083,
"ev": 0.3378,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.4288
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0503,
"ev": -0.147,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.1359,
"ev": -0.3274,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.2791
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1923,
"alpha_yes": 0.1399,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1483,
"edge_yes": 0.1483,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2931,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"ev_yes": 0.2912,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.032,
"implied_no": 0.6103,
"implied_yes": 0.3897,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.582
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1399,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.3894,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4102
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.582,
"p_final_yes": 0.4102,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1337,
"alpha_under": 0.1839,
"best_over_odd": 3.04,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.94,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.325,
"edge_over": 0.1713,
"edge_under": -0.1713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4653,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0193,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1284,
"implied_over": 0.3107,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3107,
"implied_under": 0.6893,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6893,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0193,
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3336
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1839,
"best_odd": 1.325,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.6893,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3336,
"p_final_under": 0.6578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4653,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4653,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4653,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4653,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates La Viena FC at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies La Viena FC as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "La Viena FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +46.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +46.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +46.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+46.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (La Viena FC).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2973,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3379,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2973,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "La Viena FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1399,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.3894,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.582
},
"p_final": 0.4102,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.032,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.3894,
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}
},
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"ev": 0.2912,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0229,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0193,
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},
"p_final": 0.3336,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0193,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.6893,
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"p_final": 0.6578
},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"ev": 0.4653,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1594849,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4653,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4288,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.2791
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2912,
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "La Viena FC",
"home": "Itesalat"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4653,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2973,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3379,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1594849,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T13:29:56.624466+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga de Egipto — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Nasr SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tersana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tanta SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Proxy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Kahraba Ismailia | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 6 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Haras El Hodood | 5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pharco | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Nasr SC | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Itesalat | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | El Entag El Harby | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Team | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | El Seka El Hadid | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tersana | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Tanta SC | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | La Viena FC | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Dakhleya | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Mega Sport | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Proxy | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Dayrout | 5 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 |
