The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Clydebank at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Clydebank Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Clydebank; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Clydebank 1.31 — Alloa Athletic 1.29
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Clydebank 1–1 Alloa Athletic
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "035b95b10d92ce4973f900e4ea8b822a9081faaef07cf8edbc6f412695bf1e45",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Clydebank or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Clydebank"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Clydebank",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.052,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3039,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.97
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.97,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Clydebank Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.29,
"market_odds": 2.97,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 10.8,
"prob_edge": 1.9,
"value_pct": 5.7,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Clydebank or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Clydebank or Alloa Athletic",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Alloa Athletic",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Clydebank or Alloa Athletic",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Clydebank"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 4.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.2,
"implied_prob": 24.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Alloa Athletic",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.76,
"draw": 21.85,
"home": 30.39
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 18:47:42",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 18:16:52",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Clydebank",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.39,
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.85,
"gap_pp": 7.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.76,
"gap_pp": -13.03,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.53,
"gap_pp": -10.33,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.47,
"gap_pp": 10.33,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.39,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.13,
"early": 4.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.85,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.76,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.53,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.47,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.8,
"ev": 0.071,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4082,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1225,
"implied_prob": 0.5918,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.568
},
"p_final": 0.4255,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1603,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0468,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4255
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.3,
"text": "+24.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2432,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10368.88,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0087,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.414
},
"p_final": 0.414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0283,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0644,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2405,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5828
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.092,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10082.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0333,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0333,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.057,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Clydebank",
"sort_key": 1791.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"alert_team": "Clydebank",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.06,
"hero_label": "Alloa Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"market_team": "Alloa Athletic",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Clydebank",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Clydebank at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Clydebank as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Clydebank",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0333,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.057,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "10/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"steam_team": "Clydebank",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Clydebank at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Clydebank as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Clydebank",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0333,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.057,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Clydebank 1.31 xG vs Alloa Athletic 1.29 \u2192 Clydebank 35.6%",
"Market: Alloa Athletic ~30.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Clydebank \u2193 -22.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Clydebank with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.25,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Clydebank",
"market_prob": 30.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.8,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.06,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Alloa Athletic",
"market_prob": 47.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.24,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.24,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Alloa Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 47.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Clydebank"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Alloa Athletic\u0027s win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Clydebank",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Clydebank \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Clydebank 1.31 xG vs Alloa Athletic 1.29 \u2192 Clydebank 35.6%",
"Market: Alloa Athletic ~30.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Clydebank \u2193 -22.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Clydebank with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.06,
"hero_label": "Alloa Athletic",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Clydebank odds shortened \u2193 -22.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Clydebank, with odds shortening by 22.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Alloa Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Clydebank \u2014 odds shortened by 22.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Alloa Athletic than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Clydebank, with odds shortening by 22.5%.",
"Buying interest on Clydebank \u2014 odds shortened by 22.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Alloa Athletic more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Clydebank has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 22.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on Clydebank."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Alloa Athletic",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Alloa Athletic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.25,
"edge_pp": 5.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Clydebank",
"market_prob_pct": 30.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.8,
"edge_pp": 7.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.06,
"edge_pp": -13.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Alloa Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 47.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Clydebank \u2014 odds shortened by 22.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alloa Athletic (30.4%).",
"However, Clydebank has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -22.5%, 10/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Clydebank, Market \u2192 Alloa Athletic, Recent sharp money \u2192 Clydebank.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -34.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -34.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -32.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -32.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.9
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 22.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/13 books synchronized on Clydebank (22.5% steam, score 92) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.49",
"2.97"
],
"display": "4.95 \u2192 2.97 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 29m",
"pick_team": "Clydebank",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
2.97,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,15.7",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.97"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Clydebank \u2193 -22.5% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Clydebank",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Clydebank \u2193 -22.5% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Clydebank",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Clydebank",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_team_name": "Clydebank",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "alloa-athletic",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Alloa Athletic",
"away_team_id": 1391,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1391.webp",
"away_team_name": "Alloa Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "1Z4mzpvSy7if0P",
"away_team_slug": "alloa-athletic",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1593574,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Clydebank",
"home_team_id": 17025,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17025.webp",
"home_team_name": "Clydebank",
"home_team_public_id": "3dOnbdR1jUWrdp",
"home_team_slug": "clydebank-17025",
"ht.home_team_slug": "clydebank-17025",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Copa Desaf\u00edo de Escocia",
"league_id": 182,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/182.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Desaf\u00edo de Escocia",
"league_public_id": "3nBcrPVpwkKC27",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2QWSC8EseQRtQq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Holm Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4828,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0629,
"ev": -0.2163,
"implied_prob": 0.4776,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4776,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.3039
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1765,
"best_odd": 4.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4776,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.3039
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2324
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4149,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4776,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.3039
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3255
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.1818,
"ev": -0.3436,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.13,
"edge": 0.0547,
"ev": 0.2257,
"implied_prob": 0.2421,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1749,
"alpha_yes": 0.2405,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0524,
"edge_yes": -0.0524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0644,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1025,
"implied_no": 0.4026,
"implied_yes": 0.5974,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.414
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2405,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5828
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.414,
"p_final_yes": 0.5828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2171,
"alpha_under": 0.1579,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.545,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.24,
"edge_over": -0.1103,
"edge_under": 0.1103,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1225,
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0468,
"implied_over": 0.5923,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5918,
"implied_under": 0.4077,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4082,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1225,
"implied_prob": 0.5918,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.568
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4255
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.568,
"p_final_under": 0.4255,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Clydebank at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Clydebank as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Clydebank",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Clydebank).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0333,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.057,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Clydebank"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1749,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.414
},
"p_final": 0.414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0644,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2405,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1025,
"implied_prob": 0.5947,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5828
}
},
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4082,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1225,
"implied_prob": 0.5918,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.568
},
"p_final": 0.4255,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0468,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4255
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1103,
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4077,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1593574,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Alloa Athletic",
"home": "Clydebank"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088184,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4077,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0333,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33670033670033667,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.057,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1593574,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T18:47:45.062461+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Clydebank & Alloa Athletic!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Escocia. Copa Desafío de Escocia Predicciones
