The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Alverca Sub-19 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Alverca Sub-19 Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca Sub-19 | 39.0% | 35.6% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.1% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Casa Pia Sub-19 | 31.5% | 36.3% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Alverca Sub-19; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alverca Sub-19 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Casa Pia Sub-19 31.5%
- xG · Alverca Sub-19 1.38 — Casa Pia Sub-19 1.22
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Alverca Sub-19 2.50 · Draw 3.16 · Casa Pia Sub-19 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Alverca Sub-19 35.6% · Draw 28.1% · Casa Pia Sub-19 36.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Alverca Sub-19 2.50 · Draw 3.16 · Casa Pia Sub-19 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Alverca Sub-19 35.6% · Draw 28.1% · Casa Pia Sub-19 36.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
26/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.45
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Alverca Sub-19 1–1 Casa Pia Sub-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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{
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alverca Sub-19 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alverca Sub-19 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
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"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alverca Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0745,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.81,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Alverca Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alverca Sub-19 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alverca Sub-19 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alverca Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0745,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alverca Sub-19 1.38 xG vs Casa Pia Sub-19 1.22 \u2192 Alverca Sub-19 39.0%",
"Market: Casa Pia Sub-19 ~35.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Alverca Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Alverca Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Alverca Sub-19",
"market_prob": 35.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"market_prob": 36.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.55,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.99,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.99,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 36.29,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Alverca Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alverca Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alverca Sub-19 1.38 xG vs Casa Pia Sub-19 1.22 \u2192 Alverca Sub-19 39.0%",
"Market: Casa Pia Sub-19 ~35.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Alverca Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Alverca Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.81,
"hero_label": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.4,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alverca Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 35.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.4,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.14,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.81,
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 36.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Casa Pia Sub-19 (35.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Alverca Sub-19, Market \u2192 Casa Pia Sub-19, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.82,
"closing_odds": 2.45,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.82,
"entry_odds": 2.45,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Alverca Sub-19",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Alverca Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "casa-pia-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 24442,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24442.webp",
"away_team_name": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "1bq0tHeu57bhR1",
"away_team_slug": "casa-pia-u19",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1592008,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Alverca Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 22506,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22506.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alverca Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "18OJeePfZp72lc",
"home_team_slug": "alverca-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alverca-u19",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "J\u00faniores U19",
"league_id": 1041,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1041.webp",
"league_name": "J\u00faniores U19",
"league_public_id": "05AnTzdC982Dmv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2uz49NkT2epoq5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4176,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.1599,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3629,
"draw": 0.2814,
"home": 0.3557
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3429
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2937,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.2814,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3629,
"draw": 0.2814,
"home": 0.3557
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2855
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4271,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3629,
"draw": 0.2814,
"home": 0.3557
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3702
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0932,
"ev": -0.2284,
"implied_prob": 0.4082,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.0665,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2186,
"alpha_yes": 0.2404,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.63,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0199,
"edge_yes": -0.0199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0196,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0736,
"ev_yes": -0.1133,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0898,
"implied_no": 0.4361,
"implied_yes": 0.5639,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2404,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5584
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4412,
"p_final_yes": 0.5584,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.236,
"alpha_under": 0.2146,
"best_over_odd": 1.83,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.785,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.88,
"edge_over": -0.0355,
"edge_under": 0.0355,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1179,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0974,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0719,
"implied_over": 0.5175,
"implied_over_mf": 0.513,
"implied_under": 0.4825,
"implied_under_mf": 0.487,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.513,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.487,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4937
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5057,
"p_final_under": 0.4937,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alverca Sub-19 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alverca Sub-19 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alverca Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Alverca Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Alverca Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0745,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alverca Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0042,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0736,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2404,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5584
}
},
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0066,
"market_prob": 0.487,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.513,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"p_final": 0.4937,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0719,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0719,
"implied_prob": 0.487,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4937
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1592008,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Casa Pia Sub-19",
"home": "Alverca Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4825,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0745,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1592008,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:08:06.710256+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Júniores U19 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Sub-19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 1 | Sporting CP Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Benfica Sub-19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Sporting Braga Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Oriental Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Mafra Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Feirense Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Torreense Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Rio Ave Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Santa Clara Sub-19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Moreirense Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Casa Pia Sub-19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Famalicão Sub-19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Farense Sub-19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Académico Viseu Sub-19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | União Leiria Sub-19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Vizela Sub-19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Alverca Sub-19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica Sub-19 | 6 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Porto Sub-19 | 6 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP Sub-19 | 6 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara Sub-19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 6 |
| 5 | Torreense Sub-19 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Oriental Sub-19 | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Sporting Braga Sub-19 | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Moreirense Sub-19 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca Sub-19 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 11 | Mafra Sub-19 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 13 | Rio Ave Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Feirense Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Casa Pia Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Famalicão Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | SC Farense Sub-19 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Vizela Sub-19 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 19 | União Leiria Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 20 | Académico Viseu Sub-19 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
